REFERENDUM MARRED BY LOW TURNOUT AND REPORTS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 004005

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM EG
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM MARRED BY LOW TURNOUT AND REPORTS OF
VIOLENCE


Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) The May 25 referendum on revising the Egyptian
constitution to allow for direct presidential elections was
characterized by low turnout. Although the process was
generally peaceful, there were sporadic incidents in Cairo of
government-directed beatings of opposition protestors and
journalists. The GOE will have no qualms about claiming a
popular mandate for reform on the basis of the referendum
results, although it had not yet announced the results as of
1545 hours local time on May 26. We believe, however, that
the gratuitous attacks on protestors and
journalists--including what multiple sources have
characterized as cases of sexually humiliating assaults on
women--raise serious questions about how the GOE plans to
conduct this year's elections. We received a number of
reports of irregularities, including NDP pressure on an NGO
to boost the vote in one district, and the ability of
individuals to vote multiple times. These issues are
illustrative of the many challenges that Egypt will have to
overcome if the upcoming presidential and parliamentary
elections are to be accepted as legitimate by Egyptians and
the international community. End summary.

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Attacks on Kifaya Demonstrators and Journalists
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2. (C) There were multiple eye-witness reports, by wire
services, the Los Angeles Times, the Chicago Tribune, and the
Christian Science Monitor among others, that pro-government
thugs, perhaps including undercover security personnel,
attacked several groups of demonstrators affiliated with the
Kifaya movement ("Enough," formally known as the Egyptian
Movement for Change). Although the assaults did not appear
to have been delivered with lethal intent, multiple sources,
including AP reporter Sarah al-Deeb (who confirmed her
experience in a phone call with poloff on the evening of May
25),reported that the thugs' attacks appeared to focus
particularly on abusing and sexually humiliating women
protestors and journalists.

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Anecdotal Evidence Suggests a Modest Turnout
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3. (SBU) The referendum on amending Article 76 of the
Egyptian Constitution, to allow for direct presidential
elections, was staged on May 25. Polls opened around 9:30
A.M. local and closed at 7 P.M. Poloff's tour of three
polling stations in central Cairo around midday revealed a
light but steady stream of voters at two, but the third was
station was deserted, except for a handful of police and
election officials. At a polling station close to the U.S.
Embassy, a TV crew was on hand, filming several members of
parliament who had gone in to cast their votes. Posturing in
front of the camera, a man carrying a Mubarak placard urged
several persons standing nearby to join him in a chant "Yes
to Mubarak! Hero of peace and war!"


4. (SBU) Observers and other contacts agreed that turnout
was low. Most Egyptians we spoke with who went to vote told
us the polling stations they visited had relatively few
voters. A veteran journalist contact estimated that
"actual" turnout was around 30 percent, but conceded this was
a hunch based on anecdotal information. The journalist
attributed low turnout more to apathy than to the calls of a
coalition of opposition parties, the Kifaya protest movement,
and the Muslim Brotherhood for a boycott. The official
Middle East News Agency asserted that downtown Cairo was
"exceptionally crowded" on May 25 and traffic jams were
common. Some observers explained the relative quiet by a
desire on the part of many prospective voters to steer clear
of potential clashes between the opposition and GOE security
forces. Comment: The GOE has stated that it has 32.5
million eligible voters on its lists, but most analysts
believe that these numbers are unreliable due to poor record
keeping, including a pressing need to clean the lists of
long-dead voters. End comment.


5. (SBU) One creative Egyptian TV reporter broadcasting
from the Qalubiya governorate assured viewers that a high
turnout in the cool early morning hours was sapped by the
day's heat, "which rather reduced the number of voters."
Government-controlled television and radio interrupted most
of their regularly scheduled programming with special
referendum coverage, with a focus on urging all Egyptians to
vote. Commentators on GOE-controlled media criticized the
opposition calls for a boycott. Television showed various
leading NDP figures, such as NDP Secretary General and Shura
Council Speaker, Safwat Sherif, casting their votes.
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Tireless Get-out-the-vote Efforts
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6. (SBU) If indications of low voter turnout are proven
correct(and it will be difficult to ever calculate, with
reliability, actual turnout),it will not be because of a
lack of GOE effort to mobilize voters. Egypt TV Channel One,
which draws by far the highest audience in the country, had
included for the two days before the referendum a graphic in
the corner of the screen with the slogan "participate with
your vote." A huge number of banners had sprung up on
buildings, bridges, and signposts around town, many
proclaiming "Yes to the referendum! Yes to constitutional
reform," but many more simply stating "Yes to President
Mubarak, leader of development, progress, and peace", etc.
Old habits die hard, and many precinct bosses and local party
officials clearly see referenda simply as "Yes to Mubarak"
events.


7. (SBU) An enormous banner emblazoned with a slogan
exhorting passers-by to "participate with your vote" covered
the decrepit high-rise building overlooking the Qasr an-Nil
bridge. A number of state TV talk shows hosted guests who
talked about the civic responsibility to participate in
referenda. GOE and pro-government media commentators
strongly attacked proponents of a referendum boycott as
"purveyors of passivity - discouraging citizens'
participation in public life."


8. (SBU) The GOE's "get out the vote" effort extended from
media efforts to much more mechanical and practical
processes. Strolling by the Ministry of Health, the Taxation
Authority, and the Ministry of Justice, poloff saw thousands
of government employees granted early leave streaming out of
their buildings and into buses heading to polling stations
around midday. The atmosphere was festive, and many had
apparently been provided Egyptian flags and pro-Mubarak
pennants and placards.


9. (SBU) On the evening of May 24, immediately prior to
referendum day, President Mubarak addressed the nation on
government television. Mubarak urged the Egyptian people to
vote. Egypt, said Mubarak, is in "a decisive moment in our
contemporary history and we should all bear the national
responsibility, which this moment imposes on us honestly,
honorably, and impartially." President Mubarak, along with
Mrs. Mubarak and sons Alaa and Gamal, welcomed by Interior
Minister Adly and Cairo Governor Abdel Azeem Wazeer, cast
their ballots early on the morning of May 25.


10. (C) We gleaned insight into some of the GOE's
get-out-the-vote mechanics from the head of an NGO focusing
on women and community development, who also happens to be
NDP chief for her small district in Giza. She was advised by
the party that she would be responsible for getting a "good
turnout" in her district. After reaching out to as many
women as she could think of in her district, exhorting them
to come vote and to bring their families, she duly rented a
small fleet of buses which picked up the voters, delivered
them to polling stations, and then took them back home. When
we inquired whether the NDP had paid for the busses, she said
with surprise, "no, the party can't pay for such things...I
used funds from my NGO for this." (Note: According to the
NGO Law 84/2002, Egyptian NGOs are banned from direct
participation in political activities. End note.)

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Referendum Logistics and Supervision
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11. (SBU) According to the official Middle East News
Agency, Egyptians cast their votes in a total of 329 central
public polling stations, which were supplemented by an
additional 54,350 sub-stations. Interior Minister Habib
al-Adly told MENA that the GOE's security services,
"operating under the full supervision of the judiciary," were
monitoring the polls. According to Justice Minister Mahmoud
Aboul Leil, vote counting would be under "full judicial
supervision." The Justice Minister asserted that 1,225
judicial officials, including 703 women from the GOE's
litigation and administrative prosecution boards, took part
in supervising the referendum.

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Civil Society Representatives Not Convinced
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12. (C) At a lunch hosted on May 25 by the Charge for key
civil society contacts, most noted that they had not voted
and had no plans to do so. All, including the few who had
voted, expressed cynicism and skepticism about the GOE's
direction of the process. Notwithstanding their criticisms
of the referendum process, all of the civil society activists
said that they remain committed to pushing for political
change in Egypt and are optimistic that has embarked on a
reform process from which there is no turning back. The
activists all welcomed Embassy Cairo's continuing engagement
with and support for Egyptian civil society.

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Comment
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13. (C) As of 1545 hours local time on May 26, the GOE had
not yet announced the result of the referendum, though we do
not anticipate that there will be a significant number of
"no" votes. Insofar as we anticipate debate about the
results, we think that the focus will now shift to a likely
GOE claim of high voter turnout, which will be loudly
contested by the opposition in light of the considerable
anecdotal evidence to the contrary. The opposition will
likely seize on the low turnout as evidence of the success of
their "boycott." Should the remainder of Egypt's election
year be characterized by the same GOE domination of the
electoral process, along with the attendant issues of voter
apathy and violent harassment of demonstrators and
journalists, as seen in the May 25 referendum, the GOE will
be hard pressed to persuade the international community and
its own people that it is committed to genuine poltiical
reform. End comment.


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GRAY