EGYPT: ARTICLE 76 REFERENDUM SPEEDING TOWARD

C O N F I D E N T I A L CAIRO 003911

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: ARTICLE 76 REFERENDUM SPEEDING TOWARD
ANTI-CLIMAX

REF: A. CAIRO 3785


B. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL)

C. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL)

D. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL)

Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) The May 25 referendum on parliament's proposed
amendment of Article 76 of the constitution, to allow for
Egypt's first competitive presidential elections, is
virtually certain to pass, although a low voter turnout is
widely anticipated. A broad array of opponents have
nonetheless called for a boycott of the referendum and even
filed a long-shot petition with a court to freeze the polls
on constitutional grounds. For its part, the ruling National
Democratic Party (NDP) has been working on a "get out the
vote" campaign and slammed boycott proponents for
"encouraging passivity and discouraging civic participation."
End summary.


2. (C) As reported reftels, an impressively broad array of
opposition parties and other forces are calling for a boycott
of the constitutional referendum, asserting that the proposal
to amend Article 76 put forward by parliament, nominally
intended to create a system of competitive presidential
elections, will in fact exclude real competitors. (See
reftels for analysis of the amendment and its implications.)
Those calling for a boycott include the Wafd, Tagammu',
Nasserist, and Ghad parties, each of which is currently
seated in parliament, as well as the Kifaya protest movement,
and the Muslim Brotherhood. The Wafd party's daily newspaper
characterized May 25 (the date of the referendum) as a "day
of national mourning" and urged readers to send "a clear and
practical rejection of the ruling party's hoarding of all the
keys to power in Egypt."


3. (C) Opponents of the amendment (as proposed) had several
reasons for settling on a boycott rather than attempting to
organize a "no" campaign. First, they did not want to appear
to oppose the principle of competitive presidential
elections. Second, they feared that their participation
would lend credibility to a virtually inevitable "yes"
result. By calling for a boycott, opponents will be able to
claim the probably inevitable low voter turnout (mainly due
to voter apathy) as a vindication. Several opposition
figures filed a petition with the State Council (court of
first instance) to demand an injunction on the May 25
referendum, arguing that the question, as posed is
unconstitutional because it does not provide the citizen with
enough information about the proposal to make an educated
decision. A court ruling was expected May 23 or 24.


4. (C) For its part, the NDP used the opportunity of the May
18 meeting of the "National Dialogue" of political parties,
to rally the nine (small and obscure) parties in attendance
to join with it in rejecting calls for a boycott and calling
on Egyptians to exercise their democratic right to vote. The
May 18 National Dialogue took place in the absence of the
most significant (if still marginal) opposition parties - the
Wafd, the Tagammu', the Nasserists, and the Ghad, who
announced they were withdrawing from the "charade" of the
dialogue, hosted by the NDP, in protest of the "undemocratic"
formula by which presidential candidates qualify (reftels).


5. (SBU) NDP officials and precinct bosses have been engaged
in the past ten days in a "get out the vote" campaign to
encourage citizens to participate in the referendum "however
you intend to vote." Pro-government commentators have
criticized those calling for a boycott as advocates of
negativity and passivity, and shirking their responsibility
to encourage civic education.


6. (C) Comment: Our best assessment is that the referendum
will easily win approval, but voter turnout will likely be
low - less because of calls for a boycott than because of the
average Egyptian voter's apathy and/or cynicism toward
electoral processes. End comment.


Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo

You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

GRAY