EGYPT: AYMAN NOUR, SUPPORTERS FACING HARASSMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 003840

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: AYMAN NOUR, SUPPORTERS FACING HARASSMENT
AND INTIMIDATION

Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Sustained threats, intimidation, and harassment are
making it "impossible" for Ayman Nour, the embattled leader
of the opposition Ghad Party, to conduct his presidential
campaign, according to his wife (and closest confidante and
advisor) Gamila Ismail. Ismail accuses the ruling NDP, with
the complicity of police and security officials, of
orchestrating the harassment and hiring thugs to carry it
out. She described a widely-reported May 5 incident, in
which Nour's campaign convoy was stoned, with a number of
supporters injured, as a new low point. Ismail asserted
that, in the face of constant harassment, Nour and advisors
were moving closer to a decision to withdraw from the race.
This assertion could reflect more the wishes of Nour's wife
than a firm predictor of his intentions. In our own recent
encounters with him (and his recent encounters with others)
he has given no indication that he is contemplating
withdrawal. We will continue work to corroborate information
on Nour's intentions and on developments in his campaign, his
legal case, and his party. In any case, we deem credible
charges that incidents of harassment and intimidation against
Nour's campaign are orchestrated - rather than the
spontaneous actions of "irate" citizens. End summary.


2. (C) Poloff met on May 16 with Gamila Ismail (protect
throughout),Ayman Nour's wife and closest advisor, at her
request. Ismail asserted that sustained incidents of
harassment, intimidation and violence, perpetrated by "thugs"
in the employ of the GOE, and tolerated by police, were
taking a serious toll on the morale of Nour, his inner
circle, and supporters. Ismail said that the May 5 incident
in the Nile Delta province of Sharqiya (about 70 kilometers
northeast of Cairo) had constituted a new low in her
husband's efforts to campaign for president and had prompted
them to reflect on their strategy.


3. (C) As described in multiple Egyptian and international
media accounts, Nour, Ismail, and about 150 Ghad Party
supporters were on their way to open a new provincial party
headquarters and stage a rally in support of Nour's run for
president on the evening of May 5 when they were halted in
the town of Kafr al-Saqr, near Zagazig, by cars and a crowd
blocking the road. A several-hour standoff ensued, as Nour
and colleagues at first attempted to negotiate passage
through the gauntlet, but retreated to their vehicles when
faced with aggressive taunts by the hostile crowd (e.g. "Hey
Nour, why don't you share some the two million dollars (he is
alleged, in rumors, to have received by the USG) with us?")
and forced to dodge flying rocks, stones, and bottles.


4. (C) Nour and party eventually extricated themselves and
returned to Cairo, but not before, according to Ismail and
multiple press accounts, one bus carrying Ghad supporters was
overturned by the mob, and 11 Ghad members had to be
hospitalized with injuries. Several press accounts following
the event quoted an (anonymous) police source characterizing
the incident as one in which "thousands of people (in the
village) expelled Nour and his supporters," and another
security source told a Cairo weekly "we warned him (Nour) not
to go because the people were angry with him for nominating
himself, but he refused to listen to us." Commenting on the
May 5 incident, Ghad Party official Wael Nowara told the
press "This shows how the regime tolerates opposition and its
true intentions toward having real democracy and elections."


5. (C) Ismail opined that Egyptian State Security, and the
ruling NDP, whom she identifies a co-conspirators
orchestrating the campaign against her husband, had "gotten
smart" by forsaking obvious acts of intimidation by the GOE
in favor of employing thugs (mainly criminals and
ex-convicts, she believes) to harass Nour and his supporters
and to incite others to do the same. These thugs, she
continued, can be portrayed by police, and the ruling NDP, as
"common citizens" incensed by reports of Nour's corruption
and the disrespect he has shown to President Mubarak.


6. (C) The May 5 incident was only the most dramatic, in
Ismail's view, of what she described as a sustained and
intense campaign of harassment directed at Nour, other Ghad
party leaders, and party rank and file. She cited as another
example of orchestrated intimidation their experience at the
April 27 demonstration by the Kifaya protest movement, at
which she alleged that thugs humiliated and roughed up
veteran human rights activist Amir Salim (who also heads up
Nour's legal defense team) under the watchful eye of senior
uniformed police officers. She added that she, her husband,
and other senior Ghad figures are under constant, overt
surveillance.


7. (C) Ismail asserted that "NDP thugs" had singled out
Nour's constituency of Bab al-Shariya', a crowded working
class Cairo neighborhood, for "special treatment," plastering
the area with banners taunting Nour as "the agent of the
foreigners" and "the son of Madeleine," (a reference to a
popular Cairo rumor that Madeleine Albright (who visited
Cairo in January) had recruited Nour, with whom she shook
hands at a dinner party, to become a U.S. puppet). A U.S.
journalist visiting Cairo recently joked to poloff that "you
can tell you are getting near Ayman Nour's constituency when
you start to see all the banners insulting him." Ismail also
claimed that "thugs" she believed to be convicts disrupted on
May 4 Nour's weekly Wednesday-evening meeting with his
constituents, shouting him down as an "agent" and a "traitor"
and intimidating other attendees. The incident had been so
demoralizing to Nour, Ismail stated, that he had declined to
hold a constituents' meeting the following Wednesday.


8. (C) Ismail maintained to poloff that the ongoing
harassment, intimidation, and violence was leading Nour
closer to a decision to withdraw from the race. Such a
decision was not easy (and still could be changed),she
stated, but asked rhetorically "How can we campaign if we are
surrounded by thugs blocking our path and insulting and
threatening us everywhere we go?" She added that Nour was
increasingly stressed not only by recent incidents of
harassment, but because of his looming trial on criminal
forgery charges, set to begin June 28. The trial, she
predicted, will also be packed with thugs paid to jeer Nour
and counter any demonstrations of sympathy and support for
him in and around the court.

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Comment
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9. (C) We take with a grain of salt Ismail's assertion that
Nour is on the verge of withdrawing from the race. While it
may prove true, Nour showed no sign of being worn down and
ready to quit when he received visiting Senator Frist on May
5 (just hours before the Sharqiya incident). In a more
recent meeting with a western journalist, Nour again evinced
defiance and vowed to stay in the race. It is possible that
Ismail (as a tired and beleagured wife and mother of two
teenagers) was more reflecting her hope that Nour would
withdraw than precisely describing her husband's intentions.
(We will continue work to corroborate information on Nour's
intentions, as well as developments in his campaign, his
legal case, and his party.)


10. (C) Nour should qualify as a presidential candidate under
the terms of the proposed constitutional amendment (which
will be put to a public referendum, expected to pass, on May
25). It is still possible, however, that revisions to the
law on political rights, which parliament should complete
before its current session expires in several weeks, will
include a clause excluding those indicted on criminal charges
from presidential candidacy (and perhaps from holding a
parliamentary seat).


11. (C) We deem credible the accusations of Nour, Ismail, and
other Ghad Party contacts that thugs hired by the NDP and
tolerated by police, rather than self-motivated irate
citizens, are behind incidents of harassment and
intimidation. Ordinary Egyptian citizens are very accustomed
to corrupt politicians (especially in the ruling NDP) and not
often given to spontaneous, public acts of outrage against
them. Even if the forgery charges Nour is facing are true,
this would register relatively low on the scale of Egyptian
political corruption. Moreover, it is noteworthy that
anti-Nour banners posted in his constituency, and reported
taunts from thugs in the crowd, focus not on the forgery
charges but rather on (ludicrous) claims that he is a
"foreign agent" who has accepted large amounts of money from
the USG and/or Israel.


12. (C) Harassment and intimidation targetting Nour can only
be intended to force his withdrawal from the race. While
probably an objective of old-school NDP elements intent on
facilitating Mubarak's reelection, Nour's withdrawal (under
such circumstances) would make it more difficult for the GOE
to portray this year's presidential race as a fair one
featuring viable, critical competition. End comment.


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GRAY