EGYPT BELIEVES IT CAN MANAGE SYRIAN INVOLVEMENT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003839

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/19/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ASEC EG IZ SY EUN NATO
SUBJECT: EGYPT BELIEVES IT CAN MANAGE SYRIAN INVOLVEMENT IN
A CAIRO PREPARATORY COMMITTEE MEETING

REF: STATE 92750 (NOTAL)

Classified by Charge Gordon Gray for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: During a May 19 meeting with MFA Chief of
Cabinet Sameh Shukry, the Charge delivered reftel demarche on
USG objections to Syria's inclusion in the Iraq Preparatory
Committee (PrepCom) meeting planned for June 1-2 in Cairo.
Shukry replied that excluding Syria would be diplomatically
awkward for Egypt, and noted that the GOE believed from
recent conference calls that invitations would be extended to
the "Sharm Group, plus." Egypt could easily manage and
contain any Syrian obstructionism, he asserted. On refining
and defining the invite list, Shukry suggested that the
entire Neighbors Group be represented by Turkey alone, should
the larger "Sharm Group" be determined to be unworkable.
Arguing further for the wider "Sharm Group" invite list,
Shukri said that President Mubarak would be unlikely to turn
down a direct appeal for inclusion from any of his regional
counterparts, including Syrian President Asad. Shukry looked
for specific proposals from the U.S. side on which to base
the exclusion of Syria, but cautioned that Cairo would still
likely support a wider list, including Syria. Shukry then
made a strong appeal to exclude NATO from the PrepCom
meeting, arguing that its attendance would draw criticism
from within Egypt and the region. End summary.


2. (C) The Charge met May 19 with MFA Chief of Cabinet Sameh
Shukry to convey our strong objections to including Syria
among the invitees to the June 1-2 PrepCom meetings to be
held in Cairo. Noting that the USG's "last-minute and
unexpected" opposition to Syrian inclusion in the PrepCom put
Cairo in an awkward position, Shukry said he wanted to find a
constructive way to solve the issue. Egypt had no strong
desire to include Syria, he said, but felt the Syrians could
be "managed" and "contained" during the Prepcom meetings. It
was also his understanding, he said, that the Syrians were
anxious to display a cooperative attitude in this process.
Egypt was approaching the participation issue from a
practical standpoint, he argued, and was not interested in
sending Syria a "political message" by pointedly excluding
them, as he believed Washington wanted to do.


3. (C) Shukry offered as one plausible alternative having
Turkey represent the Neighbors Group. Nonetheless, Shukry
said if any of the regional heads of state (using Crown
Prince Abdullah and President Asad as examples) were to call
President Mubarak directly to request their country's
participation, Mubarak would be hard-pressed to refuse the
request. The GOE wants to protect itself within the Iraq
Neighbors Group, and not be seen as the party "driving the
first nail into the coffin" of this useful, productive
regional grouping. Noting that Jordan had also not been
included in the proposed PrepCom list, Shukry questioned why
certain countries were included while other countries were
excluded.


4. (C) Shukry also raised Egypt's discomfort with
participation by NATO in the PrepCom. Arguing that Egypt was
focused on supporting the political process in Iraq, rather
than the military components, Shukry argued that NATO's
presence would serve as a source of criticism from local and
regional sources. Their participation in Brussels, he added,
was fine. The Charge pushed back firmly, noting the expected
security break-out sessions on the agendas of both the
PrepCom and the Brussels conference, the relevance of NATO
participation due to its active training role in Iraq, and
Baghdad's interest in its inclusion.


5. (C) Earlier on May 19, poloff delivered reftel demarche
to MFA Cabinet staff member Alaa Hadidi, arguing strongly
against the inclusion of Syria in the June 1-2 PrepCom.
Hadidi expressed frustration with the demarche, citing his
government's understanding from earlier "small group"
conference calls that PrepCom participation would be based on
the "Sharm, plus" formula. In other words, PrepCom invitees
would include all those who attended the Sharm Iraq
Conference in November, plus a handful of additional states
or organizations. Now, Hadidi exclaimed, "you want Sharm
minus, plus." Hadidi said that apart from the conference
call and an e-mail from Iraqi "small group" representative
Hamoud, the Iraqis were not in direct touch with the
Egyptians about the PrepCom. Nor had they expressed their
specific objections to Syrian attendance. If Iraq had
concerns with how the PrepCom was shaping up, Hadidi said, it
would be much better if those concerns were voiced by the
Iraqis, instead of by the U.S. Embassy.


6. (U) Baghdad minimize considered.


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GRAY