Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05CAIRO3785
2005-05-17 16:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Cairo
Cable title:  

EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF

Tags:  PGOV KDEM EG 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003785 

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF
REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION

REF: A. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL)

B. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL)

C. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL)

Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003785

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT POLITICS: OPPOSITION CALLS FOR BOYCOTT OF
REFERENDUM ON CONSTITUTION

REF: A. CAIRO 3755 (NOTAL)

B. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL)

C. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL)

Classified by Acting ECPO Counselor Al Magleby for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) Leading opposition parties and other critics of the
Egyptian parliament's proposal to amend Article 76 of the
constitution (to allow for direct, competitive election of
the president) are now calling for a boycott of the
referendum the GOE will stage on May 25 to ratify the
amendment. Those advocating a boycott contend that the
amendment (as drafted) effectively keeps the door to
competition closed by requiring too many endorsements from
elected members of the legislature - which is overwhelmingly
dominated by ruling NDP members. Ironically, three
opposition parties who called for the boycott in a May 17
press conference stated that they were still studying the
possibility of fielding presidential candidates. Opponents
of the proposal have probably calculated that a boycott is
the best available tactic, since the challenges of mounting a
successful "no" campaign, especially in the time allotted,
would be overwhelming. In the absence of a concerted "no"
campaign, the amendment's approval through the referendum,
albeit with a low voter turnout, is probably inevitable. End
summary.

--------------
Boycott
--------------


2. (C) A number of critics of parliament's final proposal to
amend article 76 of the Egyptian constitution to allow for
direct, competitive presidential elections (ref B) are now
calling on citizens to boycott the referendum scheduled for
May 25. (A constitutional amendment, now passed by the
requisite 2/3 majority vote in parliament, must still be
ratified in a public referendum to take effect.) The boycott
effort, which first surfaced late last week, received a shot
in the arm, or at least free publicity, when leaders of the
Wafd, the Taggumu', and the Nasserist opposition parties
announced at a May 17 press conference their agreement to
issue a joint call on Egyptians to boycott the May 25
referendum. Explaining their reasoning in calling for the
boycott, the party leaders noted that the referendum was
taking place without judicial supervision and complained that
the referendum did not give voters an opportunity to accept
the principle of competitive presidential elections but
reject the modalities of the current proposal.

--------------
Keeping Options Open
--------------


3. (C) Ironically, while calling for a boycott of the
referendum, the party leaders said they were still
considering whether they would field presidential candidates.
Tagammu's honorary chairman, the octogenarian Khaled
Mohieldin, is expected by many observers to run (ref C) in
spite of his stated reservations about the amendment.
Tagammu' contacts have told us they see his campaign as an
opportunity to introduce the party and its program to the
electorate and drum up support for parliamentary candidates,
while other regime opponents tell us Mohieldin is letting
himself "be used" and worry that he is doing Mubarak a favor
by offering himself up as a "viable" (but non-threatening)
opponent.

--------------
Comment
--------------


4. (C) In addition to these three opposition parties (each of
which has token representation in the parliament, but dubious
electoral viability) both Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood (ref A)
and the Kifaya protest movement have also called for a
boycott of the May 25 referendum. Opponents of the Article
76 amendment, as proposed, have chosen the obvious course by
calling for a boycott of the referendum rather than trying to
mobilize a "no" campaign. A "no" campaign would pose major
logistical and organizational challenges, especially in the
short time left before May 25. A "no" campaign could also
confer legitimacy on a "yes" result (which is probably
inevitable anyway as the ruling NDP is much better positioned
to "turn out the vote" and even manipulate the results as
necessary). By calling for a boycott, opponents can claim
vindication with a low voter turnout (another likely
inevitability). End comment.

Visit Embassy Cairo's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/cairo
You can also access this site through the
State Department's Classified SIPRNET website.

GRAY