EGYPT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT CHANGED, PASSED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CAIRO 003617

SIPDIS

NSC STAFF FOR ABRAMS/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: EGYPT: CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT CHANGED, PASSED

REF: A. CAIRO 3495 (NOTAL)


B. CAIRO 3424 (NOTAL)

C. CAIRO 2536

Classified by ECPO Counselor John Desrocher for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Egypt's parliament passed on May 10 an amendment to
Article 76 of the constitution, allowing for the country's
first direct, competitive presidential elections in its
history. Before the amendment takes effect, it must be put
to a national referendum, expected in late May. As reported
ref A, the proposal fleshed out by the legislative affairs
committee of the People's Assembly received a frosty
reception from opposition figures and independent
commentators, who asserted that the qualification formula
spelled out for candidates posed insurmountable obstacles. A
late-breaking downward revision of the number of required
endorsements was touted as a "major concession" by leading
ruling party officers but has been dismissed as meaningless
by key opposition figures. The assessment we set forth in
ref A holds: The bar has been set high for independents who
wish to compete in future presidential elections. For
political parties, the bar is surmountable, but only if this
fall's legislative elections result in a much more diverse
and independently-minded parliament. End summary.


2. (C) The People's Assembly (PA) approved on May 10 the
proposed amendment to Article 76 of the Egyptian Constitution
to stipulate the election of the president in a direct,
competitive election (reftels). Of the 454 members, 405
voted in favor. In a surprising development, NDP old guard
stalwart Hussein Mugawwar inserted an amendment to the draft
bill, reducing the total number of endorsements required for
an independent to qualify as a candidate from 300 to 250.
The original draft had stipulated that of 300 required
endorsements from elected legislature members, at least 65
must come from the People's Assembly, 25 from the Shura
Council, and 10 from each of at least 14 out of 26 provincial
assemblies. Mugawwar's amendment revised the total number
required to 250, but the 65-25-10 formula remained intact.
The amendment will not take effect until it is approved by a
public referendum, expected to take place in late May.


3. (C) The figure of 250 was apparently the ruling National
Democratic Party's fallback position from its "opening bid"
of 300. Appearing on television on the evening of May 10,
senior NDP figures including Safwat Sherif, PA speaker Fathy
Surour, and Mohammed Kamal asserted that the amendment, as
passed, was "extremely fair." They described the revision of
the number of required endorsements down to 250 as a major
concession and a gesture of the GOE's good will and
commitment to democracy.


4. (C) Opposition figures, who have been directing a
continuous wave of scathing criticism since the outlines of
the amendment emerged late last week, were unimpressed by
this concession. Opposition Wafd Party figure Amr Okasha
argued in the party's daily newspaper that the move "made no
difference" and that the hurdles set out for both
independents and parties to compete for the presidency
remained too high. Abul Ela Madi of the proposed centrist
Islamist Wasat Party (repeatedly denied recognition by the
GOE) and the Nasserist journalist Abdel Halim Qandil (also
linked to the Kifaya protest movement) each appeared on
Arabic satellite channels on the evening of May 10 to
denounce the amendment and affirm that the revision of the
requirement to 250 did not change their minds. The Kifaya
("Enough") protest movement called on May 10 on Egyptians to
boycott the presidential polls.


5. (C) No changes were made in the final approved bill to the
rules governing presidential candidates nominated by parties.
A party will be allowed to nominate a candidate provided it
has been in existence for five continuous years and secured
at least five percent of the elected seats in each of the
People's Assembly and the Shura Council. (No opposition
party currently holds five percent of the seats in either
body.) A grandfather clause in effect this year only allows
any of the 14 licensed and operating opposition parties to
field candidates.


6. (C) So far, excepting a few fringe candidates, only the
leftist Tagammu' Party's Khalid Mohieldin and the Ghad
Party's Ayman Nour have expressed an intent to compete in the
race. However, the octogenarian Mohieldin had previously
threatened to drop out in protest of the stringent terms for
qualification imposed by the amendment. As for Ayman Nour,
he is facing a criminal forgery trial and accuses the NDP of
engineering a sustained campaign of harassment and
intimidation targeting himself, his party, and supporters.

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Comment


7. (C) Our sense is that the downward revision, from 300 to
250, was a symbolic concession that has not changed the
calculus of either the ruling NDP or the various critics and
opponents of the amendment. The NDP appears determined to
maintain a formula that essentially excludes Islamists (who
would have little hope of securing as many as 65 PA
endorsements) and is also likely to keep political parties in
check. As discussed reftels, prospects for a seriously
competed presidential election this year are meagre, as the
nearly dysfunctional opposition parties have no strong
candidates to field. (The only theoretical exception would
be Ayman Nour, but as noted he is facing a host of legal and
organizational woes.) For the future, the amendment to
Article 76 will only prove to have opened the door for
seriously competed presidential elections if this fall's
legislative elections result in a much more diverse and
independently-minded parliament. End comment.


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GRAY