CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE OUTLOOK FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 CAIRO 003495

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EG
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM AND THE OUTLOOK FOR
DEMOCRACY IN EGYPT

REF: A. CAIRO 3424


B. CAIRO 2536

C. CAIRO 1509

Classified by A/DCM Michael Corbin for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).

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Summary
--------------


1. (C) Egypt's People's Assembly (PA) is expected to approve
on May 10 legislation that would amend Article 76 of the
constitution to allow, for the first time, the direct and
competitive election of the President. The bill was approved
by the PA's legislative affairs committee and endorsed on May
8 by the Shura Council, parliament's upper house, after two
months of study, drafting, and debate in the wake of
President Mubarak's late February call for the amendment.
Once approved by the PA, the amendment will be put to a
public referendum in late May before it takes force. Two
surprises in the draft are that it allows
individuals/independents, (as well as party-nominated
candidates) to compete, and that a grandfather clause (to be
applied this year only) will allow any licensed political
party to name a presidential candidate. (This exceeds the
expectation that only parties currently seated would be
allowed to field candidates this year.) However, a range of
opposition figures, reform advocates, and independent
observers are heaping scathing criticism on the PA's draft,
arguing that the hurdles it sets for independents to qualify,
and for parties to nominate their own candidates, are
impossibly high. Critics charge the modalities spelled out
in the bill reduce the President's constitutional amendment
initiative to a gimmick that will leave voters with no more
say in the selection of their president than they had under
the old referendum system.


2. (C) Our own view, grandfather clause notwithstanding, is
that prospects for a seriously contested presidential race
this year are dubious. Even if we ascribed to the GOE the
best intentions in pursuing this amendment, the opposition
parties, overall, are so disorganized, ill-led, and penilless
(as a result of both their own incompetence and longstanding
NDP sabotage) that serious presidential competitors are
unlikely to emerge. As for the long haul, any possibility
that the terms set forth in this draft could be assessed as
fair and equitable would be tied to the execution of fully
transparent and competitive parliamentary elections this fall
- an outcome itself dependent on a decisive break from past
practices. As this initiative moves forward, we need to make
clear to our GOE interlocutors that we have noted the
reservations many of credible Egyptians and underline that if
this amendment is to be assessed as a genuine political
reform step it will have to be accompanied by transparent
parliamentary elections this fall. End summary.

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The Process
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3. (SBU) Apparently relying on leaks from parliamentary
sources, Egyptian newspapers began on May 5 to report details
of the PA legislative committee's draft of the amendment to
Article 76 of the constitution, which stipulates the
country's method for presidential selection. Under President
Mubarak's instructions, the committee was tasked with
amending the article to allow for the president to be elected
directly by the voters in a competitive process, discarding
the referendum system in place since the establishment of
Egypt's republic in 1952.


4. (SBU) In the two and a half months since President Mubarak
surprised observers by calling for the amendment, the PA's
legislative affairs committee, tasked by speaker Fathy
Surour, has taken the lead in drafting the legislation that
spells out the modalities and parameters of the
constitutional amendment. Both houses of parliament made a
point of holding a number of public hearings on the issue,
and there has been extensive commentary in both official and
independent Egyptian media on the subject.


5. (C) The key issue throughout the debate on the amendment
has been the formula by which prospective candidates can
qualify to run for president. Political analysts and
opposition leaders have repeatedly urged that the PA not set
the bar too high for candidates to qualify, lest most or all
serious potential contenders for the post be excluded. As
the details of the legislative committee's draft came to
light in early May, it appeared to most observers that this
advice was disregarded.

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The Fine Print
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6. (SBU) In the draft widely reprinted by Egyptian papers
over the weekend of May 6, the bill stipulated that
candidates unaffiliated with political parties may run for
president, provided they secure at least 300 nominations from
elected members of the legislature, to include at least 65 of
444 elected members of the PA, at least 25 of 88 elected
members of the Shura council, and at least 10 elected members
of local councils in each of at least 14 of 26 provinces.


7. (SBU) Licensed political parties may also nominate
candidates for the presidency, provided they have been in
legal status as recognized parties for five continuous years
and secured at least 5 percent of the seats in each of the PA
and the Shura Council in the most recent parliamentary
elections. The bill also puts in place a grandfather clause
exempting parties from this requirement for the 2005
elections only, essentially opening the competition this year
to any of the 14 licensed and operating opposition political
parties. (Note: Four other parties are licensed but
currently "suspended" - mainly due to pending internal
leadership disputes. Previous speculation among observers
was that independents would be excluded from the process and
that the grandfather clause would apply to only parties
currently seated in parliament. End note.)


8. (SBU) Regulating the presidential elections would be a
nine-member commission, chaired by the President of the
Constitutional Court, and including three senior jurists and
five "neutral" members of the public of whom three would be
named by the PA and two by the Shura Council.
Controversially, the bill stipulates that the decisions of
the committee are final and not subject to dispute,
contestation, or appeal. Justice Minister Aboul Leil was
quoted in several Egyptian dailies on May 9 as stating that
the national referendum (required to ratify an amendment to
the constitution) would be held before the end of the month.

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Reactions: Generally Negative
--------------


9. (SBU) Among opposition parties, and a range of independent
observers and commentators, reaction so far to the PA's draft
has been negative. The opposition Wafd Party's daily
newspaper pronounced its verdict in unequivocal terms on its
banner headline: "Assassination of Political Life in Egypt:
The state does not believe in political pluralism...Its
insistence on imposing the control of the NDP is clear...The
state will have a free hand in supervising the elections."


10. (SBU) Khaled Mohieldin, honorary chairman of the leftist
Tagammu' Party who had stated (but not formally announced)
his intention to run for President said that he was now
reconsidering in light of news of the PA's draft amendment.
Speaking to the independent daily Al-Masry Al-Youm, Mohieldin
denounced the draft, saying it reduced the amendment to a de
facto referendum. He also described the requirement that
parties secure at least five percent of the seats in the PA
and the Shura as obstructive. Mohieldin said he would make a
final decision on his candidacy after he the final version is
approved by the full PA.


11. (C) (Comment: As noted in ref A, the respected (but
octogenarian) Mohieldin is the only party representative
other than Ayman Nour to have expressed an interest in
competing for the presidency this year. His withdrawal would
leave only Nour among those legally qualified to compete,
although Nour, who faces a criminal forgery trial in late
June, may well be subsequently disqualified by revisions to
the law on political rights, also due before the current
parliamentary session ends in June. End comment.)


12. (C) The draft was also denounced as "unacceptable" and
"undemocratic" by representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood
(whose spokesman, Essam Erian, was arrested on May 6,
reportedly just before he announced his own intention to
"run" for president - more on MB developments septel),and by
Kifaya ("Enough") a protest movement comprising a broad and
eclectic range of political trends (ref A).


13. (C) Significantly, opposition to the draft is even coming
from some key reform advocates within the ruling National
Democratic Party (NDP). Usama Ghazaly Harb, the prominent
liberal journalist and member of the NDP's reformist policy
secretariat, was one of a handful of dissenters in the Shura

SIPDIS
Council during the May 8 vote. Ghad Party Vice President
(and fierce GOE critic) Hisham Kassem told poloff on May 9
that disappointment in the draft was "nearly universal."


14. (SBU) However, Mustafa Fiqqi, another NDP parliamentarian
generally viewed as a member of the party's "reform camp,"
was among those who endorsed the draft and urged the
opposition to take advantage of the new opportunities
presented by the amendment. Another NDP MP asserted to the
press that the five percent rule (for parties to put forward
presidential candidates) was reasonable and that "any party
that can't win five percent of the seats can't claim to have
a voice" in the nation's affairs.

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Comment: Where Do We Go From Here?
--------------


15. (C) We stand by our assessment (ref C) of Mubarak's
initiative to amend Article 76 of the constitution as
historic. The move represents a major concession of
principle (that direct, competitive elections, rather than
referenda, bestow legitimacy on a head of state). The move
also broke the taboo on constitutional reform - it was, in
essence, a climbdown from the GOE's longstanding position
that the constitution was a virtually sacrosanct document,
and the move has opened the door much wider for debate on
further, potentially sweeping, amendments. The move has also
fueled vigorous public debate, previously conducted with
great caution, on the merits of President Mubarak and
alternatives to him. At the same time, the notion that
Mubarak, in undertaking this step, was laying the cornerstone
for a truly democratic legacy is now clearly in question.


16. (C) It was always questionable whether this year's
presidential contest would feature serious competition.
Egypt's legal opposition parties, on the whole are weak,
disorganized, ill-led and virtually peniless, due to the
combination of NDP sabotage and the parties' own
incompetence. The prospective withdrawal of the leftist
Tagammu' party's Mohieldin from the race would leave only the
Ghad Party's Ayman Nour facing Mubarak. As for Nour, even if
he was not facing a criminal forgery trial set to begin just
as the presidential campaign should be revving up, he would
have been facing an uphill battle, as a relatively unknown
leader of a fledgling party against the vast resources and
institutional weight of the NDP. As it turns out, Nour's
arrest and detention led to the near implosion and apparent
hobbling of his party, and he charges (credibly, we believe)
that the NDP and security authorities have been engineering
aggressive harassment and disruptions of his campaign events.



17. (C) Beyond the 2005 presidential race, the most serious
question is whether Mubarak, in pressing for this amendment,
is laying the foundation for a democratic legacy for Egypt.
The answer will hinge on the GOE's ability to make a dramatic
break with past electoral practices in this year's
parliamentary elections. The requirement that prospective
independent presidential candidates obtain 300 endorsements
from parliament and regional councils is primarily designed
to exclude candidates from the Muslim Brotherhood and other
Islamist groups, who are also prevented from operating as
political parties by a constitutional ban on "religiously
based parties." The endorsement requirement for
independents, along with the requirement that political
parties obtain 5 percent of the seats in parliament in order
to put forward presidential candidates, might be assessed as
reasonable hurdles in the presence of a transparent electoral
system.


18. (C) However, no opposition party can currently meet this
requirement. The largest opposition bloc (though it is not
recognized as an official parliamentary bloc) is the Ghad
Party with six out of 454 seats in the PA. The Wafd and
Tagammu' parties each hold three PA seats - 15 others are
held by "independents" linked to the Muslim Brotherhood.
The NDP's overwhelming dominance in the national legislature
(even greater at local levels),it is widely agreed, is the
product of a variety of dubious and flawed electoral
practices which have historically stacked the deck against
challengers.


19. (C) While the introduction of judicial electoral
supervision of polling stations in the 2000 elections was
welcomed as a partial remedy, critics have cited a number of
other obstacles to fair and transparent elections in Egypt,
including outdated and easily manipulated voter lists,
inequitable distribution of campaign funding, lack of media
access, and subtle and unsubtle interventions of police to
intimidate voters and block access to polling stations. If
the 2005 elections bear any resemblance to those of 2000, the
NDP will retain its strong majority in both parliament and
provincial councils and, under the proposed new rules, the
door will remain closed to independents and parties that
would aspire to compete for the presidency.


20. (C) Therefore, in order for the amendment to Article 76
to be assessed as a step forward on Egypt's path to
democracy, this year's parliamentary elections will have to
be the country's most open and transparent ever. The GOE
should make every reasonable effort to ensure that opposition
candidates are afforded every opportunity to compete for
seats this fall. Ironically, the GOE, to maintain the
credibility of its stated commitment to political reform,
will have to hope that the opposition wins as many
parliamentary seats as possible in the coming elections. If
the same ratio of ruling party to opposition seats is
preserved, the significance of the amendment will be
completely undermined. The rough tactics and dirty tricks
the ruling party is allegedly pursuing against Ayman Nour's
Ghad Party do not bode well in this regard.


21. (C) As the amendment process moves forward, we need to
underscore to GOE interlocutors how much is riding on the
implementation of credible, transparent parliamentary
elections this fall. President Mubarak still has room for
maneuver: Almost all of the criticism leveled at the draft
laid out by parliament has been directed at the PA rather
than himself. He could, theoretically, tell the parliament
that he is not satisfied with their blueprint and ask them to
revise it to improve the opportunities for genuine
competition. It is also within the power of Mubarak and the
NDP to ensure that the management of this year's
parliamentary elections does not resemble that of past years.


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