POLITICAL RENEWAL OR A CHANGE OF THE GUARD IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BUENOS AIRES 000430

SIPDIS

PASS NSC FOR TOM SHANNON, KIM BREIER, NILMINI GUNARATNE,
DEL RENIGAR
PASS USTR FOR SUE CRONIN
TREASURY FOR DAS LEE, DAVID DRYSDALE, RAMIN TOLOUI AND
CHRIS KUSHLIS AND OCC FOR CARLOS HERNANDEZ
USCINCSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL AR OFDA
SUBJECT: POLITICAL RENEWAL OR A CHANGE OF THE GUARD IN
SANTIAGO DEL ESTERO?

REF: A. 04 BUENOS AIRES 01023


B. 04 BUENOS AIRES 02817

C. 04 BUENOS AIRES 00592

D. 05 BUENOS AIRES 00124

Classified By: Ambassador Lino Gutierrez for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: POLOFFS traveled to Santiago del Estero
February 15-17 to meet with political leaders and election
officials on the eve of gubernatorial and legislative
elections. (See refs for background on elections) Everyone
assured POLOFFS that the election would be free and fair,
although it was evident the Peronist Party (PJ) candidate
Jose "Pepe" Figueroa planned to rely on the formidable PJ
party machine to ensure their voters get to the polls.
Radical Civil Union (UCR) candidate Gerardo Zamora struck
POLOFFS as a professional political leader who is seeking to
change the long history of "caudillismo" in the province.
Professional pollsters up until a few weeks ago had Zamora
with a commanding 30-point lead, which has since narrowed to
under 10 points. Polls sponsored by the national government
have the race neck-and-neck. The February 27 election in
Santiago del Estero is the first in a year of elections and
the Casa Rosada has made keeping the governorship in the
hands of the PJ a top goal. Federal intervention chief Pablo
Lanusse seemed exhausted from his efforts to reform the
province's feudal political system, but polls show his
efforts have earned him high marks from province residents as
his mandate is set to expire next month. END SUMMARY.


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Jose "Pepe" Figueroa: Another Caudillo?
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2. (C) A newly converted "Kirchnerista," "Pepe" Figueroa has
once again shifted political gears within the PJ party to
align himself closely with the President. Figueroa's
recently publicized outspoken support and close affinity for
President Kirchner played an influential role in winning him
the PJ gubernatorial nomination in Santiago's early January
PJ primary race (ref A),a tactic he has continued to draw
heavily upon in his current campaign. Figueroa's campaign
manager Marcelo Nazar told POLOFFS that he was working
closely with the GOA to ensure a PJ victory in Santiago.
Nazar pointed to the visits of several Kirchner-camp
governors, six GOA ministers including Kirchner's "inner
circle" Minister of Planning Julio de Vido and Vice President
Daniel Scioli, as demonstrations of support for Figueroa.
Apart from the political weight of the visits by high ranking
GOA members and PJ party leaders, Figueroa has manipulated
the Kirchner link in his local advertising. Streets
surrounding central plaza are lined with posters displaying
Figueroa warmly greeting the President as well as droves of
young girls distributing flyers with the campaign slogan,
"Together with Kirchner we will change Santiago."


3. (C) Prior to joining forces with Kirchner, Figueroa was an
ardent Menem supporter. Figueroa's long-standing ties to the
former president date back to 1983 when he joined the
"Peronist Renewal" movement, at that time lead by Menem,
where he served as electoral representative for the National
PJ Advisory and also the President of the PJ's Finance
Commission from 1985-1987. He co-founded the "Menem for
President" faction in 1985 and in 1989 he was elected
National Senator for the PJ Party. Figueroa held his
position as senator until 1998 when he left the Senate and
became a member of Menem's cabinet, designated as the
Secretary of Social Development from 1998 to 1999. Figueroa

SIPDIS
continues to hold Menem in high esteem and told POLOFFS that
he greatly values his close relationship with the former
president.


4. (C) Campaign head Marcelo Nazar, briefed POLOFFS on the
historical functioning of Santiagueno politics at a dinner
hosted by Figueroa. Santiago's deficit of viable industry
and lack of basic infrastructure has kept it one of
Argentina's poorest provinces for decades with currently 59
percent of its population below the poverty line. This
overarching structural poverty, especially in rural areas,
has led much of the population to rely on GOA subsistence
subsidies. Traditionally, local mayors are essentially
feudal lords in their districts, maintaining power by
strategically distributing subsidies and foodstuffs before
major elections. According to Nazar, "Necessity is the
reality in Santiago and he who controls the pocketbook
maintains power." Santiago's rural areas have strong
Peronist roots and the 21 district mayors are Figueroa's
backbone for the February 27 election.


5. (U) Figueroa outlined a general trajectory of goals for
his future mandate including constitutional reform,
infrastructure development and agriculture-based growth, but
did not give specifics on how he planned to execute such
reforms. He did however attend a February 16 convention held
by a group of local and international NGOs committed to the
development of civil society and governmental reform in
Santiago where he publicly vowed to reform the provincial
constitution within 90 days of taking office as well as
promote transparency.


6. (SBU) Jose Figueroa was born in 1946 in Suncho de Corral
in the province of Santiago del Estero. He received a
Bachelor's degree in political science from the Catholic
University of Santiago del Estero in 1974. Figueroa joined
the Peronist party in 1972 and began his political career
with the help and guidance of the long-time caudillo governor
Carlos Juarez, currently under house arrest (ref B). (Note:
Figueroa's current gubernatorial platform is based not only
on his close connections to the GOA, but also on his stated
opposition to Juarez.) Before dedicating himself to
politics, Figueroa was a businessman and the President of the
International Chamber of Commerce in Santiago del Estero. He
is married and has five children.

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Comment:
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7. (C) Figueroa's long history of shifting alliances within
the PJ party from Juarez to Menem to the current Kirchner
demonstrate his understanding of the PJ party machine. He
has the ability to strategically position himself close to
influential members to promote his personal political agenda
of staying in power regardless of ideological affiliations.
Despite his promises of transparency and reform, many doubt
that once elected Figueroa will take action to initiate
reforms to the traditional party system that are necessary to
modernize the political system in the province.

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Gerardo Zamora: A Breath of Fresh Air?
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8. (U) In contrast to Figueroa's campaign which seeks to
acquire support through broad PJ popularity, especially at
the GOA level, Radical candidate Gerardo Zamora has pursued
the opposite and has focused on minimizing his radical party
ties and building support at the local level. Radial Civil
Union (UCR) President Angel Rozas has come out in support of
Zamora's campaign, but has not played a leading role as
Zamora's strategy is to build a coalition, Civic Front for
Santiago, which includes supporters from RECREAR, socialists
and former ARI members. Zamora's strongholds are
concentrated in Santiago's two major cities, Santiago and La
Banda; however, once outside the urban area the PJ's secure
grasp over local mayors is difficult for Zamora to penetrate.



9. (U) Zamora was born in 1965 and is a native of Santiago
del Estero. He received a law degree from the Catholic
University of Santiago del Estero and became active in
politics while attending the university. He was President of
the Young Radicals and also the UCR-aligned "Purple Fringe"
student movement from 1986-1987. Zamora continued to work
within the Radical party and became President of the
Provincial UCR and Vice President of the National Committee.
He was elected Provincial Representative for the terms of
1991-1993 and 1997-1999.


10. (SBU) Zamora became involved in the Santiago City
government in 1999 when he was elected Vice Mayor on the
ticket of Jose Luis Zavalia. Zavalia's lack of fiscal
responsibility sent Santiago plummeting into debt, rocking
the city government and forcing his resignation in 2001. By
default, Zamora became Mayor and managed to restore order to
Santiago, although critics have noted he did more to appease
social unrest than reform the situation. Overall, he proved
himself a fiscally responsible and capable administrator,
and, despite his position in the Zavalia government during
the scandal, overwhelmingly won re-election in 2003 with 64
percent of the vote. He is the current President of the
National Forum of UCR mayors and is generally well-perceived
by the public.


11. (SBU) Professional pollsters had placed Zamora well
ahead of Figueroa with as much as a 30-point lead until
recent weeks. When asked about the recent avalanche of PJ
Party members rushing to Santiago to support Figueroa, Zamora
admitted he was apprehensive, but hopeful he could maintain
his position. His strategy has been to invite UCR governors
who work well with Kirchner to Santiago to demonstrate to the
GOA that his win would not signify loss of provincial
cooperation. In the most recent polls however, tides have
changed and GOA-sponsored Analia de Franco places the
candidates on level ground, with Figueroa at a one percent
advantage.

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Comment:
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12. (C) Zamora also signed the NGOs' pact pledging to
dedicate himself to constitutional reform and transparency if
he is elected. In his meeting with POLOFFS he was
professional and focused and presented detailed plans
outlining crucial reforms he plans to implement in the
province. Zamora realizes that a drastic changes need to be
made in Santiago and that while benefits may not be immediate
he seemed committed to giving his utmost effort to reform
Santiago.

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Lanusse: The Outsider
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13. (SBU) Lanusse will complete his second six-month term as
intervention chief of Santiago del Estero next month after
his April 1, 2004 appointment by Kirchner. Viewed as an
outsider in Santiago, Buenos Aires native Lanusse's temporary
government arrived to revamp the corruption-ridden province
and restore it to provincial control as quickly as possible.
The early January open internal PJ elections marked a major
success for Lanusse as Santiago's first PJ primaries in
decades, which despite initial uncertainty appear to have
been open and fair. While Lanusse's major goal of
constitutional reform was shelved until after the February 27
gubernatorial elections, he has made progress in judicial
reform and most importantly has worked to provide an opening
for the development of civil society. To his credit,
according to recent polls, 62 percent of the Santiago public
views the intervention favorably despite initial skepticism
and apprehension.

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Comment:
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14. (C) As Pepe Figueroa told us during our meeting with
him, elections are won in Santiago del Estero with money,
transportation, and party election officials. The power of
the PJ machine to bring in voters on Election Day cannot be
underestimated and Figueroa is likely to do better than
professional polls have indicated. Many local observers
believe that Zamora is the best hope for continued reform in
Santiago del Estero. Both leading candidates have pledged to
re-write the Juarez era constitution and finish the process
of political renewal in the province. However, Figueroa
struck POLOFFS as someone who would not likely push boldly
for change. Figueroa's campaign manager Marcelo Nazar
candidly told us that "what we are showing the world in
Santiago del Estero is that people can change their
governors, although not necessarily their government." We
hope this election does not prove to be merely a changing of
the guards.
GUTIERREZ