POLL SHOWS MAJORITY OF ROMANIANS OPPOSED TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 000806

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958, AS AMENDED: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: POLL SHOWS MAJORITY OF ROMANIANS OPPOSED TO
ROMANIAN MILITARY PRESENCE IN IRAQ



1. (U) Summary: A Center for Urban and Rural Sociology
(CURS) poll released March 28 shows that more than half of
Romanians oppose the country's military presence in Iraq.
On other key issues, the poll indicates that Romanians are
against early elections and believe the fight against
corruption should be the country's top priority. The CURS
poll indicates that a slim majority of Romanians think their
country is headed in the "right direction." The governing
center-right National Liberal Party (PNL)-Democratic Party
(PD) alliance tops the list of voter preferences, with over
48 percent support, trailed by former ruling Social
Democratic Party (PSD) with 30 percent. A separate poll
conducted by the independent National Institute for Public
Opinion and Marketing Studies (INSOMAR) polling agency
produced similar results, although it did not ask for views
on Iraq. End Summary.

Opposed to Troops in Iraq; Concerned with Corruption
-------------- --------------

2. (U) The Center for Urban and Rural Sociology (CURS)
published March 28 the results of an opinion poll conducted
March 21-26. The poll results received widespread press
coverage in leading Romanian print and broadcast media. The
survey covered a wide range of issues related to domestic
and international politics. Its question related to the
presence of Romanian troops in Iraq was the first such
polling question on the issue widely published in the media
in well over a year.


3. (U) Responding to the question, "Do you support the
presence of Romanian military in Iraq?" 55 percent said no,
36 percent said yes, and 9 percent had no opinion on the
issue.


4. (U) Respondents to the CURS poll placed fighting
corruption at the top of their list of the country's chief
problems. In response to the question, "In your opinion,
which is the most important problem that has to be dealt
with now in Romania?" results showed:

Percent
Fighting corruption 21
Living standards 19
Workplaces 19
Pensioners' problems 9
Support for agriculture 4
Solving youth problems 4
Economic revival 3
Combating inflation 2
Medical assistance 2
Legislative coherence 1
Reduction of the fiscal burdens 1
Housing 1
Bureaucracy 1
Joining EU 1
Other 4
No answer /Don't know 8
--
100

SNAP Elections?
--------------

5. (U) CURS polling results indicate that the majority of
those surveyed (59 percent) oppose early parliamentary
elections. Only 41 percent support snap elections, with 17
percent undecided. The CURS figures track with findings from
an INSOMAR poll conducted March 17-21 and released March 24,
which shows that 68 percent of those surveyed oppose snap
elections, compared to only 32 percent in favor. President
Traian Basescu has stated on several occasions that he would
favor early elections, potentially this year.

PNL-PD Leads in Rankings
--------------

6. (U) Both the CURS and INSOMAR polls measured public
support for Romania's political parties with the question:
"If parliamentary elections took place tomorrow which party
or political formation would you vote for?" In both polls,
the ruling National Liberal Party - Democratic Party (PNL-
PD) Alliance tops voters' preferences by roughly half,
trailed by the former ruling Social-Democratic Party (PSD)
with 30 percent. Of Romania's smaller parties, only the
extreme nationalist (PPRM) Popular Greater Romania Party and
the ethnic Hungarian UDMR would receive enough votes to
cross the 5 percent parliamentary threshold, according to
both polls. 26 percent of those interviewed by INSOMAR and
39 percent of those interviewed by CURS indicated that they
would not vote or did not have a voting preference.

Percent
INSOMAR CURS
PNL-PD 55 48
PSD 27 30
PPRM 9 8
UDMR 6 5
PUR 1 3
PPCD 1 2
Other party 1 4
-- --
100 100

PNL-PD Government: On the Right Track?
--------------

7. (U) According to the CURS poll, a slim majority of
Romanians, 46 percent, believe that "things in Romania are
going in the right direction", holding a slight edge over
the 42 percent who believe the country is moving in the
wrong direction. Respondents also indicated they are
similarly divided over whether the current center-right PNL-
PD government leads the country better than the previous
center-left PSD government. In the CURS poll, 37 percent
responded "better," 29 percent feel the current government
performs the same as the previous PSD government, and 23
percent believe it is worse.

Percent
Better 37
The same 29
Worse 23
No answer / Do not know 11
--
100
Comment
--------------

8. (SBU) While the CURS poll results on Romanian involvement
in Iraq comes on the heels of President Basescu's March 27
visit to Romanian troops in Iraq and the March 28 hostage-
taking of three Romanian journalists and one accompanying
American in Iraq. Our contacts underscore that with the PSD
scrambling to regain ground lost during last year's
elections, Romanian involvement in Iraq could surface as an
increasing point of contention in the country's political
discourse. Nonetheless, top political leaders continue to
emphasize that Romania plans to stay the course in Iraq.


9. (SBU) The CURS poll results showing corruption at the top
of the public agenda track with last fall's parliamentary
elections and December presidential elections in which
corruption became a major campaign issue. Romania's
progress in fighting corruption also serves as a sticking
point for Romania's planned 2007 EU accession, and will
remain high on the GOR and public's radar following
President Basescu's designation of the anti-corruption fight
as a "national security priority." Our Embassy contacts
underscore that while public support for the PNL-PD remains
strong, snap elections, favored by President Basescu, are
opposed by most lawmakers as well as the population surveyed
in the two polls.


10. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest.


11. Minimize considered.

DELARE