LATEST ROMANIAN POLLS - PRESIDENT BASESCU STILL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001641

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH, JANE MESSENGER

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM ECON RO
SUBJECT: LATEST ROMANIAN POLLS - PRESIDENT BASESCU STILL
POPULAR, BUT NUMBERS DROPPING

REF: A. BUCHAREST 01378, B. BUCHAREST 01084

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED - PLEASE HANDLE ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) Summary. Opinion polls conducted in July indicated
a slight decline in support for both President Basescu and
his center-right Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance.
Support for Prime Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu dropped
more dramatically, coinciding with his recent vacillation
over whether to resign and force new elections. At the same
time, few Romanians want new elections, with roughly 60
percent opposing an early vote. Minister of Culture and
Religion Mona Musca remains the most popular cabinet member,
with the ministers of Justice and Foreign Affairs close
behind. End Summary.


2. (U) Two recent opinion polls carried out by respected
pollsters provide a snapshot of evolving political
attitudes, coinciding with recent controversy surrounding
the PM's vacillation whether to resign and force snap
elections. The independent Center for Urban Center for
Urban and Regional Studies (CURS) conducted an omnibus poll
between July 10 and 17 among 1050 respondents over the age
of 18, with a margin of error of 3 percent. The opposition
center-left Social Democratic Party-leaning Marketing and
Public Opinion Poll Institute (IMAS) conducted its poll
between July 7 and 15 among 1252 respondents, with a margin
of error of 3 percent.


CURS: A MAJORITY OPPOSES NEW ELECTIONS
--------------

3. (U) The CURS poll, focusing on a range of political
issues, produced the following results:

- Do you think early elections would be good or bad for
Romania?
- Good 29 percent
- Bad 59
- Don't know, no response 12

- If early elections were to be held this Sunday, which
party would you choose? (Of those respondents who expressed
an opinion.)
- PNL-PD 45 percent
- PSD 30
- PRM (Great Romanian Party) 10
- UDMR (Ethnic Hungarian Party) 6
- PC (Conservative Party, former PUR) 3
- Others 6

- How satisfied are you with the following Cabinet
Ministers? (Note: The titles/portfolios of each minister
were not included in the question. End Note.)


(Very) Satisfied Not Satisfied Don't Know
- Mona Musca 56 percent 29 15
Religion/Culture
- Monica Macovei 39 35 26
Justice
- Mihai Ungureanu 37 23 40
External Affairs
- Gheorghe Flutur 29 33 38
Agriculture
- Marko Bella 25 47 28
Minister of State
- Codruts Seres 25 44 21
Minister of State
- Ionut Popescu 24 39 37
Finance
- Teodor Atansiu 23 29 48
Defense
- Vasile Blaga 23 26 51
Interior and Administration
- George Copos 19 32 49
Minister of State
- Mircea Cinteza 15 49 36
Health
- Sulfina Barbu 15 42 43
Environment
- Mircea Miclea 14 31 55
Education
- Gheorghe Dobre 14 29 57
Transport
- Gheorghe Barbu 11 27 62
Labor
- Gheorghe Seculici 10 24 66
Minister of State
- Zsolt Nagy 10 20 70
Communications and IT
- Mihai Voicu 9 18 73
Minister Delegate of Coordination
- Bogdan Olteanu 8 20 72
Minister Delegate of Parliament Relations
- Ene Dinga 6 18 76
EU Integration
- Cristian David 5 19 76
Minister Delegate International Finances


4. (SBU) In a separate question, 57 percent of respondents
believed that Presidential Counselor and former PNL leader
Teodor Stolojan would be the best Prime Minister, as opposed
to 20 percent who favored incumbent Calin Popescu-Tariceanu.


IMAS: PNL-PD SUPPORT DECLINING
--------------

5. (U) The IMAS poll provides an indication of relative
trends during the first seven months of PNL-PD government.
Results are compared to responses to the same question asked
in January, March, June, and July 2005. Most striking is
the significant drop in support for PM Tariceanu, with
similar erosion for Basescu.

- Which party would you vote for if elections were to be
held this Sunday?
Jan 2005 March June July
PNL-PD 66 percent 54 55 47
PSD 19 28 23 32
PRM 7 9 10 12
UDMR 5 5 6 5
Others 3 5 5 4

- How much confidence do you have in the following public
figures?
Jan 2005 March June July
Traian Basescu 73 percent 58 58 50
Mircea Geoana 44 40 41 38

C. Tariceanu 65 48 42 34
Adrian Nastase 27 31 26 30
Emil Boc 39 27 26 27

C. Vadim Tudor 21 19 17 22
Marko Bela 15 11 15 11
Cozmin Gusa - - 11 10
Dan Voiculescu 9 8 6 7


6. (SBU) Comment: Both polls were completed before PM
Tariceanu's July 19 announcement that he would not resign.
Given the general public disapproval of his vacillation
before that announcement and his initial lack of focus on
flood relief, his standing would likely be lower in polling
conducted today. Interestingly, the two most popular
cabinet members were both women, perhaps positively
indicating a hairline crack in Romania's historic "glass
ceiling" that has impeded women political figures from
moving forward in the past. End Comment.


7. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest.

TAPLIN