RULING ALLIANCE MOVES TOWARD ELECTIONS; OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001521

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON KDEM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: RULING ALLIANCE MOVES TOWARD ELECTIONS; OPPOSITION
IN DISARAY, SEEKS COMPROMISE

REF: A. BUCHAREST 1511


B. BUCHAREST 1433

C. BUCHAREST 1348

BUCHAREST 00001521 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Section Chief Robert S. Gilchrist for Reasons
1.4 B and D


1. (C) Summary: The governing Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD)
alliance on July 8 continued to send out strong messages that
the country is headed for early parliamentary elections,
following the surprise July 7 resignation of the cabinet.
President Basescu is expected to accept the resignations and
appoint an interim prime minister by July 14. The likely
date for the vote will be late September or early October.
Meanwhile, the opposition Social Democratic Party (PSD),
concerned about a possible severe electoral loss, is seeking
negotiations to prevent an early vote. Tariceanu is expected
to remain in place in the interim government, along with
other key cabinet members. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Romanian media entered a frenzy of speculation July
8 over the prospects of new parliamentary elections,
following the announced resignation on July 7 of Prime
Minister Calin Popescu-Tariceanu and his center right cabinet
(ref a). Embassy contacts said the political parties were
taken by surprise by the resignations, even those within the
ruling coalition. Meanwhile, party leaders entered
discussions to determine the course of events for the coming
months and to forge backroom deals.


PNL-PD Committed to Elections
--------------

3. (C) Multiple PNL-PD insiders confirmed to Post that the
alliance is committed to elections and is making plans for a
vote in late September or early October; the most likely date
would be October 2. The two parties have also agreed on
electoral arrangements between themselves -- primarily that
the Prime Minister will come from PNL, and that the electoral
list and seats in parliament will be divided evenly between
each party (Note: PNL outnumbers PD in the current parliament
by a previously agreed ratio of 1.3 to one). Foreign
Minister Mihai Razvan Ungureanu told Charge that the PNL-PD
led government is committed to continuing its activities as
"closely to business-as-usual as possible." Ungureanu said
this applies particularly to issues related to EU accession.
Presidential Counselor Claudiu Saftoiu told PolChief that
Basescu would likely reappoint Tariceanu as interim Prime
Minister and that many ministers would remain in place, even
after elections.


4. (C) Although President Basescu was reportedly slated to
make a press statement on July 7, thus far he has remained
publicly quiet on the Cabinet resignations. Until he
formally names an interim prime minister and accepts the
Cabinet's resignation, the current government continues to
operate as previously. Saftiou confided that Presidential
advisors hoped for an announcement soon, but that the PNL-PD
would need to work out details of timing on elections and
pass electoral legislation. Other PNL-PD insiders expected
this to happen by July 14.


The Opposition Panics
--------------

5. (C) Embassy contacts within the PSD have confessed that
the party was taken by complete surprise by the government's
resignation. One contact characterized the PSD leadership as
being "in total disarray." Meanwhile, senior PSD members
publicly accused the PNL-PD of putting partisan interests
above the interests of the country. PSD President Mircea
Geoana publicly called the Tariceanu government the "worst
the country had had in the last 15 years" and accused
President Basescu of being behind the resignations. (Note:
Under the Romanian constitution, the President is obliged to
refrain from participation in partisan politics. End note).
Geoana further asserted that the "unprecedented political and
constitutional crisis," was artificially created to give
Basescu "absolute power." Nonetheless, he noted that the PSD
had already entered discussions with other parliamentary
parties about potential electoral pacts.


6. (C) PSD senior parliamentary leader Viorel Hrebenciuc
reaffirmed to PolChief that the PSD had entered one of the
most heated days of internal discussions the party had ever
had. Hrebenciuc confessed privately that the PSD was not
prepared for Tariceanu's surprise resignation or for

BUCHAREST 00001521 002.2 OF 002


elections, which the party feared it would lose. Hrebenciuc
said that PSD had offered a compromise deal with the PNL-PD
to carry out a vote in Parliament to override the
Constitutional Court decision that precipitated the
government's resignation. He confided that some in the PNL
rank-and-file were ready to accept such a deal, but had
little hope that Tariceanu or other senior PNL-PD leaders
would agree to it. Hrebenciuc described Romanian national
politics as being "in total chaos." He said he had heard
many scenarios of how events may unfold in coming weeks,
including the "tragic" possibility that PSD would be forced
to forge a parliamentary coalition to vote in favor of a
PNL-PD government and program. At mid-day he had placed odds
of early elections at 50-50; however, Post understands he had
adjusted those odds to 75-25 in favor of elections by later
the same day.


7. (C) The extreme nationalist Greater Romania Party (PRM)
publicly supported new elections, with leader Corneliu Vadim
Tudor calling for presidential elections in addition to those
for parliament. Internally, according to contacts who know
the PRM, many members dread the idea of returning to the
polls and have begged Tudor to oppose them. However, Tudor
is interested in taking out of Parliament a large group of
former members who have defected from the party in recent
months (ref c). According to recent polls, support for the
party has dropped from roughly 13 to 10 percent since
November 2004 elections. Nonetheless, according to one
counselor in the prime minister's office, Tudor would "prefer
the smaller representation than to having to deal with his
renegades in Parliament."


8. (C) Although the small Conservative Party (PC) is formally
a member of the governing coalition, for the purposes of new
elections it would likely fall on the side of the opposition.
Saftoiu claimed to PolChief that the PNL-PD will "refuse to
negotiate" with the PC, which Basescu has referred to even
publicly as an "immoral" or "parasitic" party. The leader of
the PC is media magnate Dan Voiculescu, who is alleged to
have had links with the former Securitate internal
intelligence service. Nonetheless, some PNL-PD insiders
believe PNL-PD will have to negotiate with some members of
the PC to secure a continued parliamentary majority capable
of forcing elections. This may come in the form of offering
some PC members places on the new PNL-PD electoral list for
the next parliament.


Ethnic Hungarians Reluctantly Agree
--------------

9. (SBU) Members of the ethnic Hungarian party (UDMR) have
long confessed to Post concerns that new elections risk
wiping the party off the map, as there is always a
possibility that it will not meet the required 5 percent
electoral threshold for entering Parliament. Nonetheless,
some contacts admitted that the party felt it "had no choice"
but to join the PNL-PD in supporting early elections if the
UDMR hopes to remain in government following the vote.
Mid-afternoon July 8, UDMR president Marko Bela publicly
announced support for snap elections as "a means for
strengthening the parliamentary majority." He acknowledged
that elections could be avoided, but said that the UDMR still
felt compelled to join the government in pressing for the
vote.


10. (C) Comment: Rumors abound in Bucharest that the call
for new elections is merely PNL-PD brinksmanship to bring
about concessions from the PSD on key reform legislation and
on issues such as parliamentary leadership. However, every
PNL-PD contact with whom we have spoken in recent days has
underscored that elections "are not in doubt."
As reported in reftels, Basescu has repeatedly called for new
elections to capitalize on his popularity and increase the
PNL-PD majority. While there are still a few constitutional
hurdles and negotiations continue with potential electoral
allies, it is increasingly clear he will get what he wants.


11. (U) Amembassy Bucharest's reporting telegrams are
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest
TAPLIN