POLLS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR BASESCU, CENTER-

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001378

SIPDIS

STATE DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI KDEM ECON RO
SUBJECT: POLLS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR BASESCU, CENTER-
RIGHT ALLIANCE

REF: BUCHAREST 001084


1. Summary: Opinion polls conducted in May and June
indicate continued strong support for President Traian
Basescu, particularly after the release of three Romanian
hostages from Iraq on May 22. A poll of June 14 showed
Basescu with an approval rating of 71 percent while his
center-right Liberal-Democratic (PNL-PD) Alliance also
received high marks. Another major poll, conducted during
the recently concluded hostage crisis, showed continued
concern about corruption, and a lack of faith in the
parliament and political parties. End Summary.

CURS POLL: BASESCU AND PNL-PD RIDING HIGH
--------------

2. The June 14 CURS poll was conducted June 3-10 among 1005
respondents over 18 years-old throughout the country.
Margin of error is 3.1 percent. Key questions and responses
are as follows:

-- How do you feel about the following political
personalities in Romania?

Bad/ Good/ Don't Know
Very Bad Very Good

Traian Basescu 27 percent 71 2
Mircea Geoana 29 60 11
C.Popescu-Tariceanu 33 57 10
Emil Boc 30 44 26
C.V. Tudor 60 32 8
Gheorghe Ciuhandu 27 27 46
Cozmin Gusa 31 24 45
Dan Voiculescu 41 20 39
Marko Bela 60 18 22

(Note: The question did not include PSD former President Ion
Iliescu or former Prime Minister Adrian Nastase. End note).

-- If elections were held this Sunday, which party would you
vote for? (Percentage is of respondents who expressed an
opinion.)

DA Alliance(PNL-PD) 50 percent
PSD 28
PRM 8
UDMR 5
PC (former PUR) 3
PNG 2
PIN 1
PPCD (former PNTCD) 1
Other 2

-- For those who would have voted for the PNL-PD, which of
the two party components has your support?

PD 44 percent
PNL 38
No preference 17
Don't know/No resp. 1


-- For those who would have voted for the PNL-PD, do you
think that these two parties should:

Unite into one party 49 percent
Remain in alliance, but separate 33
Break the alliance, keep two parties 11
Don't Know/No response 7

GALLUP: BASESCU WOULD WIN IF NEW ELECTIONS HELD
-------------- --

3. Gallup Romania and the Open Society Foundation conducted
their poll May 6-19 among 1800 respondents over 18 years-
old. The margin of error is 2.3%. The following are
highlights of key election questions asked:

-- If elections were to be held next Sunday, who would you
choose as president of Romania? (Percentage is of
respondents who expressed an opinion.)

PNL-PD Traian Basescu 65 Percent
PSD Adrian Nastase 15
PSD Mircea Geoana 6
PRM Valim Tudor 6
PSD Ion Iliescu 3
Others 5

-- If elections were to be held next Sunday, which party
would you choose? (Percentage is of respondents who
expressed an opinion.)

DA Alliance (PNL-PD) 59 Percent
PSD 24
UDMR 7
PRM 7
Others 3
-- How much confidence do you have in:

Little/Very Positive/ Don't know
Little/None Lots him/No resp
Traian Basescu 42 Percent 59 4
C.Popescu-Tariceanu 57 34 11
Mircea Geoana 56 31 13
Theodor Stolojan 60 31 10
Adrian Nastase 75 20 5
Emil Boc 57 20 23
Ion Iliescu 78 16 6
Valim Tudor 79 13 8
Marko Bela 80 9 10
Dan Voiculescu 72 6 22

-- Can you tell me the name of Romania's president?
Traian Basescu 96 Percent
Don't know 4

-- How about Romania's Prime Minister?
C.Popescu-Tariceanu 74 Percent
Adrian Nastase 1
Don't know 25

-- And Romania's Minister of Foreign Affairs?
Mihai R. Ungureanu 23 Percent
Mircea Geoana 2
Don't know 75

... BUT DON'T HAVE MUCH FAITH IN PARLIAMENT, PARTIES
-------------- --------------

4. The Gallup survey also included extensive polling on the
economic status of respondents, feelings about their
personal future and the future of Romania, and continued
concern about corruption. Notable questions included:

-- How much confidence do you have in:

Positive Great Deal of
Confidence Confidence
the Church 44 Percent 39
military 49 13
mass media 50 12
EU 38 10
NATO 37 11
the president 38 8
your local mayor 36 7
the police 31 5
financial institutions29 4
the government 26 4
NGOs 24 4
the judicial system 22 3
the Parliament 19 3
political parties 11 2


-- In your opinion, corruption in Romania:

is prevalent and exists at all levels 78 Percent
exists only at higher levels 10
exists only at lower levels 1
does not exist 1
don't know/no response 10

-- How do you think most wealthy people in Romania became
successful?

breaking the law 56 Percent
who you know 13
hard work and self-merit 10
luck 8
others 4
don't know 9
-- In your opinion, in the fight against corruption the
present government has taken:

Very many measures 4 percent
Many measures 25
Few measures 35
Very few measures 12
No measures 7
Undecided/don't know 17

-- How much monthly income is necessary for your family to
live a decent life? (Responses only from families of four)

Urban Lei 22 mn (USD730)
Rural Lei 15 mn (USD500)

-- How much money did your family earn last month?
(Responses only from families of four)

Urban Lei 12 mn (USD400)
Rural Lei 7 mn (USD230)

-- In four years' time, do you think your economic situation
will be better, the same, or worse?

Better 40 Percent
The same 28
Worse 14
Don't know 17

-- In four years' time, do you think Romania' economy will
be better, the same, or worse?

Better 42 Percent
The same 24
Worse 16
Don't know 18

-- Is Romania heading in the right direction?
44% yes
43% no
13% don't know


5. Comment: The results of these two recent polls confirm
that Basescu and the PNL-PD Alliance still remain popular
after six months in office. No doubt, Basescu's successful
resolution in bringing home the three Romanian hostages from
Iraq contributes to this continued buoyancy. Interestingly,
Gallup also noted that this was the first time since 1997
that more respondents expressed belief that the country is
headed in the right direction than not.
Former FM Geoana's strong showing in the CURS poll followed
his election as PSD president at the April 21 party
conference. End Comment.


6. AmEmbassy Bucharest's Reporting telegrams, as well as
daily press summaries, are available on the Bucharest
SIPRNet website: www.state.sgov/gov/p/eur/bucharest

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