Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BUCHAREST1348
2005-06-13 09:35:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bucharest
Cable title:  

DAMAGED EGOS, DIVIDED PARTIES -- FISSURES IN

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI RO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001348 

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: DAMAGED EGOS, DIVIDED PARTIES -- FISSURES IN
ROMANIA'S OPPOSITION

REF: A. A) BUCHAREST 1245


B. B) BUCHAREST 1003

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ROBERT GILCHRIST FOR REASONS 1.4
B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BUCHAREST 001348

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI RO
SUBJECT: DAMAGED EGOS, DIVIDED PARTIES -- FISSURES IN
ROMANIA'S OPPOSITION

REF: A. A) BUCHAREST 1245


B. B) BUCHAREST 1003

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ROBERT GILCHRIST FOR REASONS 1.4
B AND D


1. (C) Summary. Six months after national elections,
Romania,s parliamentary opposition has been shaken by public
squabbling and some political defections that may precipitate
more fundamental changes. Ex-President Ion Iliescu has
threatened to resign from the former ruling Social Democratic
Party (PSD),potentially taking with him key PSD stalwarts
and the strong electoral support he still enjoys among some
voting groups. Separately, Corneliu Vadim Tudor has formally
returned to the helm of the extreme nationalist Greater
Romania Party (PRM),provoking a schism within that movement.
The beneficiary is the center right Liberal-Democratic
alliance-led government, which will likely receive support
from newly independent MPs. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Several developments among Romania,s opposition
parties in recent weeks have produced some realignments in
the parliament, with potentially more change. The primary
motivator thus far has been the damaged egos of former
President and PSD founder Ion Iliescu; and, Greater Romania
Party (PRM) leader and founder Corneliu Vadim Tudor. The
opposition Liberal-Democratic alliance has remained largely
mute on the sidelines, benefiting from the opposition,s
internal squabbles and even increasing its support in the
parliament though &political migration.8

HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE ILIESCU SCORNED
--------------

3. (SBU) Immediately after his failure to win the PSD
presidency at the April 21 party congress, many political
insiders predicted that Iliescu would never graciously accept
second class status within the party he had founded (Ref A).
The defeat initially came as a personal shock to him -- in
fact, he was hospitalized for several weeks due to heart
problems precipitated by stress. Shortly after his release
and following the advice of some of his closest advisors, he
announced on June 3 that he was &seriously considering8
quitting the party. He asserted that he was disgusted by

&corruption8 within the PSD, claiming that his loss to
ex-FM Mircea Geoana in his bid for the party,s presidency
was the result of behind-the-scenes maneuvering. He also
stated that his presence in the party might block &new
forces8 (Geoana and his team) from &moving forward with
their agenda.8


4. (SBU) A few weeks before, Ioan Talpes, PSD senator and
Iliescu,s former security counselor, resigned from the
party, accusing the current leadership of &treating Iliescu
unfairly.8 The same day, Talpes met with Romanian President
Traian Basescu at the presidential palace. Many political
insiders speculate that Talpes provided information to
Basescu on corruption within the PSD, including that related
to jailed Syrian-Romanian businessman Omar Hayssam - now
credibly implicated in the kidnapping of 3 Romanian
journalists in Iraq. Four other less-prominent MPs and a
number of local leaders also resigned from the PSD as an
expression of their disagreement with the party,s new
&leadership policies8 and in support of Iliescu. Some in
the media predicted the emergence of a new political party
surrounding Iliescu that would divide Romania,s left.


4. (SBU) The new leadership of the PSD, however, quickly
rallied to smooth feelings and prevent what they feared could
be a meltdown within the party. Although to many, Iliescu
represents a remnant of Romania,s communist past, local
political analysts point out that he still commands a loyal
following, especially among rural, older, and less-educated
voters. He can also count on the support of numerous local
leaders. PSD Executive President and ex-PM Adrian Nastase
admitted June 5 that Iliescu,s departure from the PSD would
&greatly damage8 the party. He urged Iliescu to remain
within the fold and accept the party,s decision to elect
Geoana as president.


5. (C) On June 6, a delegation of PSD elder statesmen called
on Iliescu and urged him to remain in the PSD, for the sake
of the party,s unity. Following that meeting, Iliescu backed
off from his earlier remarks, promising in a joint press
conference with Geoana that he would remain as head of the
PSD Senators in Parliament until September. Analysts viewed
the joint appearance, especially given Iliescu,s recent
criticisms of Geoana as an opportunist, as a sign of restored
party unity - at least for now. Nonetheless, many analysts
continue to opine that it is &only a matter of time8 before
Iliescu leaves the PSD. Much also depends on the impact of a
recent announcement of criminal charges against Iliescu for
inciting miners, riots in the early 1990,s (septel).
Although it is the common belief among many Romanians that
Iliescu was behind the deadly riots, a drawn out debate over
his role could further erode his popular support.

TUDOR RETURNS TO PRM,S HELM (HE NEVER REALLY LEFT)
-------------- --------------

6. (SBU) As PSD,s troubles simmered, those within the
extreme nationalist Greater Romanian Party (PRM) came to a
full boil. The party,s core membership June 4 voted to
restore the movement,s founder Corneliu Vadim Tudor as the
party,s president. The decision followed days of publicized
infighting culminating in the PRM Standing Bureau,s June 2
decision to expel from the party former president Corneliu
Ciontu and PRM vice-president Anghel Stanciu. The Convention
accused both men, handpicked by Tudor in March to lead the
party when he stepped down as the party,s titular leader, of
&plotting8 against Tudor.


7. (C) The June 4 convention also voted to drop the word
&popular8 from the party,s name ) effectively ending the
PRM,s bid to affiliate itself with the center-right European
Popular Party (EPP)(Ref B). The PRM,s decision to return to
its original name followed the decision of a delegation of
the European Popular Party (EPP),which visited Bucharest
June 2-3, not to open negotiations with PRM. According to
independent Embassy contacts, Ciontu had attempted to present
a credible application to the EPP, but Tudor sabotaged his
efforts from behind the scenes, remaining the party,s de
facto, if not de jure, leader. PRM leaders have also
observed that the party,s core electorate (mostly aging,
rural, and nationalist) was confused by Tudor,s replacement
in March by the little known Ciontu and Tudor,s superficial
attempts to transform the PRM into a mainstream center-right
party. For most Romanians, including the PRM,s supporters,
Tudor and the PRM are one in the same, with the party
inextricably linked to Tudor,s ultranationalist message.
Party insiders loyal to Tudor were also vexed that Ciontu,s
temporary accession to the party,s presidency meant that
their influence within the party had diminished.


8. (SBU) Erstwhile PRM president Ciontu subsequently declared
that he and six other PRM Chamber deputies plus five
independent deputies (who resigned from the PRM group of
deputies in February) will form a separate parliamentary
group with the goal of establishing a &modern
Christian-Democratic party.8 In a June 2 interview, Ciontu
excluded any compromise with Tudor and said that his PRM
colleagues had to choose between &nationalism and
euro-popular identity,8 between &isolation and responsible
government.8 Two regional PRM branches have already
publicly vowed to join Ciontu,s movement. Ex-PRM member and
Iasi vice-mayor Constantin Neculau echoed their sentiments
when he stated that Vadim,s comeback and Ciontu,s expulsion
make it impossible for the PRM to enter the political
mainstream, either within Romania or as part of the EPP.
Indeed, recent polls show the PRM,s level of popular support
as steadily declining, with one sounding showing only seven
percent of voters supporting the PRM (which gained 13 percent
in fall,s parliamentary elections).


9. (U) The two major parties of the center-right governing
coalition, the National Liberal Party (PNL) and the
Democratic Party (PD),have been the main beneficiaries of
the PSD,s and PRM,s internal struggles. Four of the PSD
and PRM defectors have already joined one of the governing
parties and those who have remained independent have voted,
so far, with the center-right coalition. In February three PD
deputies left the party after a falling out between former PD
senior leader and deputy Cosmin Gusa and President Basescu.
Gusa and two other deputies now call their small bloc in the
Chamber the National Initiative Party (PIN).

WHAT THE PARLIAMENT LOOKS LIKE NOW
--------------

10. (SBU) The net effect of changes in the Parliament thus
far appears to be a better standing for the PNL-PD led
coalition. Embassy contacts within the Parliament tell us
the new bloc of renegade PRM members led by Ciontu plans to
support the governing coalition, in an attempt to appear like
a mainstream Christian Democratic movement. The governing
coalition will still be challenged in the Senate, where its
majority remains relatively slim and few changes have
occurred.


11. (U) The composition of the Parliament, compared to
December 2004, is as follows:

CHAMBER OF DEPUTIES (seats)
Dec. 2004 June 2005
PNL* 64 66
PD* 48 45
PSD 113 111
PC* 19 20
PRM 48 34
UDMR* 22 22
Minorities* 18 18
Independent 0 1
Ex-PRM(Ciontu Group) 0 12
PIN (Gusa Group) 0 3

Total 332 332

*Ruling coalition


SENATE (seats)

Dec. 2004 June 2005
PNL* 29 30
PD* 20 20
PSD 46 44
PC* 11 11
PRM 21 20
UDMR* 10 10
Minorities* -
Independents - 2

Total 137 137

*Ruling coalition


12. (SBU) Comment: Romania,s proportional &party list8
system in place since 1990 has historically been
characterized by party splintering and changes in party
affiliation in periods following national elections. From
2000-2004, such fluctuation benefited the then ruling PSD,
which greatly increased its ranks at both the national and
local level. The current trend appears to be moving towards
the center-right. Bucharest analysts are split as to what a
departure of Iliescu from PSD would mean for the party. Some
say it would be a serious blow, splitting the socialist left.
Others say it would present an opportunity for Geoana and
others to refit the party with a modern Social Democratic
image. The extreme nationalist and xenophobic PRM faces
greater challenges, with some pundits asserting the movement
may be diminishing in both influence and ultimately popular
support. Until the 2000 elections, the PRM typically counted
on roughly 7-8 percent of the vote. Recent polling suggests
the party may be returning to that level after winning an
historically high 26 percent of parliamentary seats in the
2000 election. We anticipate further defections from the PRM
in the parliament toward the political mainstream. End
Summary.


13. (U) Amembassy Bucharest,s reporting telegrams are
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest .
DELARE