HOSTAGE CRISIS TESTS ROMANIAN PRESIDENCY; BASESCU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUCHAREST 001030

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EUR/NCE - WILLIAM SILKWORTH

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER MOPS IZ RO
SUBJECT: HOSTAGE CRISIS TESTS ROMANIAN PRESIDENCY; BASESCU
VOWS TO STAY THE COURSE IN IRAQ

Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF ROBERT GILCHRIST F
OR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) Summary: The kidnapping and potential killing of
three Romanian journalists presents an unprecedented
challenge to President Traian Basescu, four months into his
tenure. He has staked out a firm position in favor of strong
transatlantic ties and a continued Romanian military
contribution to Iraq and Afghanistan. However, to a degree
unseen since the beginning of the war, many in the Romanian
media and some mainstream politicians are now calling for
withdrawal. If the hostages are killed, Basescu and the
government may also face scrutiny over their handling of the
crisis, effectively a first scratch in what so far has been a
"teflon" presidency. The terrorists' taped threat to kill
the hostages on April 26 has intensified pressure on the
government and captivated a nation glued to television
screens. Basescu has told us he plans to stay the course and
will not succumb to the terrorists' demands. End Summary.

Cynicism Becomes Horror
--------------

2. (C) The March 28 kidnapping of three Romanian journalists
and their American-Iraqi guide, Mohammad Munaf, has dominated
Romanian news headlines in recent weeks. In the early days,
however, the media and much of the public had become
convinced that the kidnapping was merely the work of wealthy
Romanian-Syrian businessman Omar Hayssam. According to
general media opinion, Hayssam had been involved in nefarious
business deals linked to prominent members of the opposition
Social Democratic Party (PSD). He now sought to orchestrate
a crisis that he could solve and thus win the favor of
Romania's new leadership. This view was also shared by some
in government. Hayssam's arrest by the Romanian police on
April 5 convinced many Romanians that the crisis would soon
be resolved. This seemed to be confirmed by the fact that
the initial videotape of the hostages on March 31 did not
resemble the tapes released by known Iraqi terrorist groups.
Perpetual rumors that the hostages had been freed and were
being secretly detained by the Romanian or U.S. governments
added to many Romanians' misplaced optimism.


3. (C) The release of a second tape on April 22, however,
marked the beginning of a new stage in the crisis, focusing
public attention on the true plight of the hostages. With
the terrorists holding guns against their heads, the
distressed hostages in the tape stated the kidnappers planned
to kill them if the Romanian government did not withdraw
Romanian troops from Iraq within four days. A third
videotape, broadcast by Al-Jazeera on April 26, set a new
deadline of 17:00, April 27. The release of the third tape
followed a telephone call earlier in the day in which
kidnappers announced the same deadline to the news director
of the Romanian television station employing two of the
hostages.

Wavering Public Resolve
--------------

4. (C) In addition to the horror many have expressed in
response to the crisis, in recent days there have also been
new calls for the government to reevaluate its troop
commitment to Iraq. Covered extensively in the news have
been public demonstrations in Bucharest and other major
cities to show solidarity for the victims and to call for
their release. Mixed with these messages have been emotional
calls, including by the victims parents, for the withdrawal
of Romanian troops. These sentiments have also drifted into
political rhetoric, particularly that of opposition
politicians. Former Foreign Minister and new PSD leader
Mircea Geoana April 25 urged President Basescu develop
"correct balance" toward a calendar for troop withdrawal
without giving the image that Romania has yielded to
"political blackmail." (Comment: Geoana immediately called
the Charge to "explain" his position, agreeing that Romanian
troops, in fact, should not be withdrawn unless conditions on
the ground permitted. Charge also told Geoana that his
rhetoric ran a risk - in that "calls for a calendar could
develop expectations for a near-term withrdrawal." End
comment) Some PSD leaders have also criticized Basescu for
not having an "exit strategy" from Iraq. On April 26, one of
the victims' father, who is also a PSD senator, tearfully
called upon the population to organize peaceful
demonstrations so that troops could be withdrawn beginning
immediately. He emotionally declared that the most recent
videotape showed young people who looked like they did not
have much time to live. Late afternoon April 27, roughly
thousand protesters marched peacefully down a major Bucharest
thoroughfare calling for troops to depart.

5. (SBU) Politicians from lesser parties have also joined the
fray. The crisis has been a mainstay in publications of the
extreme nationalst Greater Romania Popular Party (PPRM),with
PPRM leader Corneliu Tudor calling for an immediate withrawal
of Romanian troops from Iraq and Afghanistan. Dan
Voiculescu, leader of the small Romanian Humanist Party (PUR)
has similarly called for a withdrawal and even volunteered to
travel to Iraq to exchange himself for the three journalists.
PUR is a member of the center-right governing coalition.
The Parliament is scheduled to debate the crisis further in a
joint session the afternoon of April 27.


6. (SBU) While most public voices recognize that ceding
immediately to the terrorists' demand would be the equivalent
of succumbing to blackmail, the crisis has provoked far
greater discussion on Romania's troop presence in Iraq than
ever before. The evolution of this crisis has dovetailed
with Romania's first combat death in Afghanistan since
October 2003. Public polling on Romania's troop contribution
-- which was scarce during the last two years of PSD
government -- has now begun to appear more regularly in daily
newspapers. A Center for Urban and Regional Sociology (CURS)
blitz poll conducted April 23-24 asked respondents if Romania
should withdraw its troops in response to the terrorist
demands in order to save lives -- 70 percent said "yes" and
18 percent "no", with 12 percent "no response/don't know.
When asked whether or not troops should be withdrawn
irrespective of the journalists fate,
57 percent said "yes," 33 percent "no," and 10 percent
"don,t know/don,t answer." Another CURS poll carried
before the crisis showed similar figures. (Note: The CURS
poll was sponsored by PUR leader Voiculescu, already firmly
out in front in opposition to Romanian participation in Iraq.)

Basescu/Tariceanu Stand Firm
--------------

7. (C) The Government's public reaction has been to stress
that it is doing everything possible to free the victims
without yielding to the terrorists. Prime minister Calin
Popescu-Tariceanu April 26 made a televised appeal for
Romanians to trust the authorities and to refuse to endorse
kidnappers, demands. He said that the pressure to give-in is
increasing, but he reassured the public that the authorities
are acting responsibly, know how to handle the situation, and
will make every effort to release the hostages. Basescu --
who has been repeatedly criticized by the media for being too
opaque about the crisis -- has relied largely on press
statements released by his spokesperson. Some media analysts
have asserted that Basescu has micromanaged the crisis
without consulting advisors, cabinet members, or other key
political players.


8. (U) Mid-afternoon April 27 Romania's top defense officials
issued a press release urging the terrorists to extend the
deadline. They also asked Sunni religious leaders to become
involved in freeing the hostages, including through
negotiations.


9. (C) Comment: In his conversations with Charge, Basescu
continues to emphasize that Romania will not succumb to
blackmail and will stay the course in Iraq. Given his strong
commitment over time to such a policy, we believe that his
determination is steadfast. Nonetheless, the ongoing hostage
crisis has prompted the most intense debate yet over
Romania's troop commitment to Iraq. It also marks the first
real test of Basescu's presidency. We share the view of some
in the media that Basescu has centralized decision-making on
the hostage situation. Indeed, the crisis has prompted
several of his senior advisors to approach us requesting
long-term assistance on crisis management and organization
structure. We are now looking at options to provide such
assistance. More fundamentally, however, we continue to
reassure Basescu that we are doing all we can -- at multiple
levels -- to assist him and his government during this trying
time. End Comment.


10. (U) Amembassy Bucharest,s reporting telegrams are
available on the Bucharest SIPRNET Website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/bucharest .


11. (U) Minimize considered.
DELARE