Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BRUSSELS4315
2005-12-07 07:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

DAS DICARLO AND EU DISCUSS W. BALKANS

Tags:  PREL PHUM EAID XH EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 004315 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAID XH EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: DAS DICARLO AND EU DISCUSS W. BALKANS

Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BRUSSELS 004315

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM EAID XH EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: DAS DICARLO AND EU DISCUSS W. BALKANS

Classified By: Political Officer Vincent Carver for reasons 1.5 (b/d).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) DAS Rosemary DiCarlo and Kosovo Desk Officer Black
discussed the Western Balkans with the UK Presidency and EU
officials at the U.S.-EU COWEB Troika meeting in Brussels
November 29. DAS DiCarlo highlighted the EU accession
process as a catalyst for reform in the region but noted that
countries, particularly SaM, had to cooperate fully with
ICTY, including delivering Mladic to The Hague. DAS DiCarlo
and the EU agreed that a Montenegrin referendum on
independence would have to be seen by all parties as
legitimate and free and fair. On Kosovo, the UK Presidency
noted that Belgrade and Pristina continue to maintain hard
lines, making it difficult to identify the parameters for
compromise. DAS DiCarlo pressed for U.S. participation in
steering group discussions on the transition of the
international civilian presence in Kosovo; the UK and the
Council General Secretariat expressed surprise that the U.S.
was not being included. EU officials said that BiH had made
"just enough progress" for Stabilization and Association
Agreement (SAA) negotiations to have begun November 25 and
stressed their desire to be involved in BiH constitutional
reform. According to the EU, Solana may informally announce
December 12 that Schwartz-Shilling will replace Ashdown as
High Representative in Sarajevo. The UK Presidency expressed
"cautious optimism" that the European Council would approve
EU candidate status for FYROM at the December European
Council while noting that no date would be set to begin
accession negotiations. The EU and Albania may sign an SAA
as early as January. DAS DiCarlo noted continued U.S.
pressure on Zagreb to deliver Gotovina to The Hague.
Participant list para 16. END SUMMARY

THESSALONIKI AGENDA ON TRACK
--------------


2. (C) Commission Enlargement official Axel Wallden reviewed
the Thessaloniki Agenda, noting that the Commission had
determined the individual performances of each of the Western
Balkan states had been at least "good enough" to receive the

Commission's recommendation to move a step further on the
path to accession: opening accession negotiations with
Croatia and Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA)
negotiations with BiH and SaM, as well as recommending
candidate status for FYROM. Wallden noted that fostering
regional cooperation, including on energy, and negotiating a
regional free trade agreement under the auspices of the
Stability Pact, remained EU goals. As part of the EU's
enlargement strategy, it is providing each candidate country
precise guidance on reforms it needs to enact and implement
in order to move forward on accession.


3. (C) Austrian MFA Director for the Western Balkans Thomas
Schnoell noted that EU FMs and their Western Balkan
counterparts will meet on the margins of the Gymnich informal
ministerial in Salzburg in March to identify where the EU and
the Western Balkans can promote further reform and
integration. Specific topics could include visa facilitation
for specific categories of travelers and the promotion of
regional trade. According to Schnoell, the "time is right"
to sign the SAA with Albania and SAA negotiations with BiH
and SaM could conclude in approximately one year if they
"deliver" on pledges to reform. Although not raising the
bar, ensuring compliance with EU conditions, he added, is
even more vital given the results of the Dutch and French
referenda on the draft EU constitution.

SUPPORT SAM BUT INSIST ON COOPERATION WITH ICTY
--------------


4. (C) DAS DiCarlo reviewed U.S. efforts to support SaM but
expressed concern over Belgrade's stalled cooperation with
ICTY, including the fact that Mladic remains at large. In
addition, the U.S. is looking to DefMin Stankovic to
implement promised personnel reform, she added. DAS Di Carlo
also lamented the lack of a genuinely reform-minded
government in Belgrade. She added that PfP would remain
blocked to SaM as long as Mladic remains at large. On
Montenegro, DAS DiCarlo noted the U.S. message to Podgorica
that ICTY commitments apply to Montenegro as well as to
Serbia. DAS DiCarlo underscored the need for Djukanovic to
engage the Montenegrin opposition on this issue. She also
emphasized that any referendum must meet clear international
standards and be seen by all parties as legitimate.


5. (C) UK FCO Director for Eastern Adriatic Affairs Karen
Pierce noted that the EU shared a similar analysis of SaM.
The leadership in Belgrade were introspective and not fully
engaged. The EU's SAA process, Pierce added, might energize
SaM to tackle the full range of required political and
economic reforms. She noted that the EU likely would not
close negotiations on an SAA with Belgrade if it failed to
cooperate further with ICTY. In this regard, Pierce
underscored that the U.S. and the EU should consider an
appropriate response should Belgrade not deliver Mladic to
The Hague by the end of 2005 as Belgrade has pledged.
MONTENEGRIN REFERENDUM
--------------


6. (C) Pierce said that the EU had delivered a demarche to
Podgorica noting that it would consider Serbia as the SaM's
successor state should Montenegro declare independence. DAS
DiCarlo voiced support for EU efforts to ensure that
Montenegro followed international standards in the conduct of
a possible referendum. The EU noted to Podgorica that the
Stabilization and Association Process (SAP) likely would
start over for Montenegro should independence be achieved.
Alexandros Yannis of the Council Secretariat's Western
Balkans Office stressed that the stability of SaM was key to
regional stability. In this light, the EU is trying to help
SaM as much as possible. Schnoell echoed these sentiments
while Wallden stressed that an independent Montenegro would
get no "fast track" toward EU accession, particularly given
its weak governmental structures.


7. (C) Pierce noted that the EU might go beyond the Venice
Commission's proposals and present stricter conditions for a
referendum. DAS DiCarlo and Pierce agreed that Belgrade
appears not to have understood how likely a Montenegrin
referendum in 2006 is. Both noted the twin challenges facing
Belgrade: (1) dealing with Montenegro and Kosovo
simultaneously and (2) explaining the respective outcomes to
the Serbian population.

KOSOVO: KEEP THE PROCESS MOVING
--------------


8. (C) According to Pierce, the EU has difficulty
identifying where the parameters for compromise between
Belgrade and Pristina are, given that both sides are
maintaining hard lines and offering few specifics regarding
final status. Pierce observed that, during or after the
final status talks, the Serbian government could collapse,
Kostunica could call new elections, and the Radicals could
gain power. Therefore, the EU and the U.S. should continue
efforts to persuade Belgrade of the benefits of integration
with the transatlantic community.


9. (C) Yannis said the EU is pursuing a double track
regarding Kosovo -- supporting final status talks while
simultaneously planning for an EU role in post-final status
Kosovo. He noted that the EU likely will assume some
responsibilities, possibly including judicial reform and
police support, as part of an international civilian presence
in Kosovo following final status talks. Likewise, the EU may
have residual functions in the economic sector, including
monetary, fiscal and trade responsibilities. Yannis added
that the Council will review such planning, including how to
move the Kosovars toward adopting EU standards, at the
December 12-13 FMs meeting. He said the EU may adopt a
streamlined "European Partnership for Kosovo" document before
the end of the year to, inter alia, help the Kosovars
reorganize their working groups and focus on implementing
reforms. Yannis concluded by noting that final status must
provide Kosovo the ability to sign and ratify treaties.
Otherwise, he reasoned, its commitment to pursue the
accession path would be "thin."


10. (C) DAS DiCarlo emphasized the need for Kosovo to
conclude agreements with IFIs. On a continued international
civilian presence, DAS DiCarlo pointed to the U.S. desire to
coordinate closely with the EU on planning, including in
steering group set up in Kosovo. Pierce and Yannis expressed
surprise that the U.S. was not being included in such
discussions and agreed on the efficacy of including the U.S.
Pierce observed that the question of future financial
assistance will also have to be reviewed.

BiH: AN "INTERESTING YEAR"
--------------


11. (C) The EU participants noted that there had been "just
enough progress" on the reform front for BiH to begin SAA
negotiations with the EU. The Commission noted that the EU
saw four broad challenges for BiH in the coming year: (1)
police reform; (2) constitutional reform (Pierce and
Commission officials voiced support for the U.S. Institute
for Peace's (USIP) efforts and stressed that the EU would
like a dialogue with the USG or the USIP to help the Bosnian
political parties meet their self-imposed deadline on
constitutional reform); (3) defense reform and ICTY
compliance and (4) the transition itself with the Bosnians
taking full responsibility for their future.


12. (C) All agreed that Belgrade must not be allowed to use
Kosovo final status as a pretext to reopen issues related to
the Republika Srpska. Yannis emphasized that the EU will
continue to seek the right balance among the Bosnian armed
forces, the EU's police mission, and EUFOR. Pierce noted
that German candidate Schwartz-Shilling appears to be gaining
support among member states to replace High Representative
Ashdown. Solana may make an informal announcement regarding
Schwartz-Shilling at the December 12 FMs meeting. Schnoell
noted that a Peace Implementation Council (PIC) or a PIC
Steering Board may want to review the situation in BiH in May
or June 2006. DAS DiCarlo emphasized that the EU's decision
to begin SAA negotiations with BiH will provide impetus for
further reforms and stressed that police reform must be
implemented properly. She emphasized the need to implement
police reform under the auspices of OHR since political
support of the EU and the United States would be necessary to
ensure implementation. DAS DiCarlo summarized the USIP's
facilitation of Bosnian political leaders' discussions on
political reform, the BiH leaders' meetings in Washington,
and welcomed greater EU involvement to help keep the
constitutional reform process on track.

FYROM: LIKELY EU "CANDIDATE," BUT NO ACCESSION TALKS YET
--------------


13. (C) Schnoell characterized EU and U.S. efforts to
support stability and reform in Macedonia as a good example
of transatlantic cooperation. Schnoell and Commission reps
said FYROM has made much progress and has implemented the
Ohrid Agreement. Council Secretariat official Hove noted
that Solana had publicly endorsed FYROM for candidate status.
Given this, Pierce noted that she is "cautiously optimistic"
that the European Council will support the Commission's
recommendation that FYROM receive candidate status, although
accession negotiations would not begin soon. DAS DiCarlo
said the U.S. viewed granting candidate status for Macedonia
as a strong signal to reformers in Skopje and noted its need
to make more progress on economic and judicial reform. DAS
DiCarlo also emphasized the positive signal that granting
candidate status to Macedonia would send to the entire region.

ALBANIA: SAA TO BE CONCLUDED SOON
--------------


14. (C) Commission officials observed that, given the
"largely free and fair" elections and "enough progress" on
the reform front, the EU likely would conclude SAA
negotiations with Albania soon, possibly as early as January.
While the SAA was in the ratification process, the EU would
establish an interim agreement to outline continued reform
requirements for Tirana. The Commission noted that PM
Berisha, meeting with Commission President Barroso that same
day, would receive encouragement for continued reform and
messages that reform must take place in a legal framework.
Tirana would also be encouraged to support final status talks
for Kosovo but cautioned against getting overly involved in
the process, given the ethnic Albanian angle. DAS DiCarlo
supported the EU SAA process with Tirana, emphasizing that it
helps strengthen democratic trends and electoral reforms.

OTHER BUSINESS: CROATIA; RHETORIC FROM BOSNIA
--------------


15. (C) DAS DiCarlo emphasized continued U.S. pressure on
Zagreb to comply with its ICTY obligations and deliver
Gotovina to The Hague. EU officials noted that the EU
continues to monitor Croatian compliance. Yannis said
rhetoric coming out of Bosnia practically accusing the entire
population of the Republika Srpska of war crimes are
unhelpful and the international community should seek to
dampen such talk.



16. (U) PARTICIPANTS
--------------

U.S.

DAS Rosemary DiCarlo
Kosovo Desk Officer Joshua Black
USAID Advisor for Southeastern Europe Patricia Manso
USEU Poloff Vincent Carver

UK Presidency

FCO Director for the Western Adriatic Karen Pierce
UKEU Officer Rachel Goddard

Austria

MFA Director for Western Balkans Thomas Schnoell
Austrian EU Officer Gernot Pfandler

Commission

Enlargement Officer Therese Sobieski
Enlargement Officer Dirk Lange
Enlargement Officer Axel Wallden

General Secretariat
Western Balkans Officer (Kosovo) Alexandros Yannis
Western Balkans Deputy Director Lene Hove


17. (U) DAS DiCarlo has cleared this message.
MCKINLEY
.