PDAS SHAPIRO FOCUSES ON ANDEAN REGION WITH EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 004172

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID VE CO BL EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: PDAS SHAPIRO FOCUSES ON ANDEAN REGION WITH EU

REF: A. A) USEU TODAY 11/17/05

B. B) STATE 207705

C. C) BRUSSELS 4149

D. D) BRUSSELS 3353

Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro's November 15
discussions with EU officials focused principally on
Venezuela, Colombia and Bolivia. On Venezuela, the European
Commission (EC) acknowledged that the EU observation mission
to the December elections would have to take care not to be
seen as endorsing the election results. The EC Venezuela
deskoff said the mission's purpose is not to validate the
results, but to scrutinize the entire electoral process; he
said the EC would officially request U.S. support in ensuring
the mission's findings are respected by all parties in
Venezuela. On Colombia, Shapiro's interlocutors said EC
assistance could be increased if the Justice and Peace Law
were implemented effectively. The EU will not observe the
December Bolivian elections; the EU Council reported that
Movement towards Socialism leader Evo Morales, on a recent
trip to Paris and Madrid, had said he would seek Venezuelan
help in developing Bolivia's natural gas sector if foreign
companies did not accept his conditions for their
involvement. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On November 15 WHA PDAS Charles Shapiro met with EU
officials from both the European Commission (EC) and the EU
Council. Present at the EC meeting were External Relations
Deputy DirGen Karel Kovanda, Acting Director for Latin
American Affairs Victor Andres Maldonado, and Venezuela Desk
Officer David Bruck. Shapiro's EU Council interlocutors were
Director for Transatlantic Relations Jim Cloos and Latin
America Adviser Nicolas Pascual de la Parte.

(NOTE TO WHA POSTS: The European Commission is the
"executive" branch of the EU, responsible for acting in the
interest of the EU as a supranational institution. On
foreign policy, the EC's power resides in its control of the
EU's development assistance funds. The EC alone is the third
largest bilateral donor, with the EU as a whole (EC plus EU
member states) being the largest. The EU Council, in
contrast, represents EU member-state governments and their
sovereign interests as expressed in consensus decisions among
the 25. The Council is headed by Javier Solana, who is the
High Representative for EU Common Foreign and Security
Policy. END NOTE.)

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VENEZUELA: EU AT A LOSS ON CHAVEZ
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3. (C) Kovanda said the EU shared U.S. concerns on Venezuela,
but remarked that there was little anyone could do about it.
He predicted Chavez forces would win the December legislative
elections hands down, regardless of the degree to which they
are free and fair. He said the EU election observation
mission was in danger of inadvertently contributing to the
credibility of the mandate Chavez would receive from the
electorate. Kovanda said EU observers would have to be very
careful not to endorse implicitly Venezuela's electronic
voting technology -- which he feared the EU would not be able
to monitor reliably -- nor to be seen as endorsing the
election results. Bruck stressed, though, that the
observation mission would scrutinize the entire electoral
process. He predicted the observers would likely criticize
quite a few aspects of that process, such as the
unreliability of the voter registry and the politicization of
the National Electoral Council. The observation mission
leader, said Bruck, would be a Portuguese center-right member
of the European Parliament (and former GOP minister),Jose
Albino Silva Peneda.


4. (C) In response, Shapiro agreed that election observation
would be difficult and might play into Chavez's hands. He
urged the EU, though, to focus on helping keep as much space
open as possible in Venezuela for civil society -- NGO's,
churches, the private sector -- and the exercise of
democratic freedoms.

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EU TO REQUEST SUPPORT FOR ELECTION MISSION
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5. (C) Bruck first told Shapiro that European Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner would send a letter to Secretary Rice about
the EU election observation mission. Later, though, he
called to correct that, saying the EU had decided instead to
explain its purposes and goals for the mission, and solicit
U.S. support, in a demarche to State within the next week.
Main points in the demarche would be:

--The EU encourages every effort to promote national
reconciliation and democratic principles, tolerance and
dialogue in Venezuela;

--EU Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner made clear, when announcing
to the Venezuelans the decision to send an observer mission,
that it was the GOV's responsibility to act to inspire
confidence in Venezuelan civil society in the election
process;

--The EU hopes the observer mission will send a clear signal
to the Venezuelan government and civil society of the EU's
commitment to strengthen genuine democracy in the country;

--The mission's purpose is not to validate the election
results, but to scrutinize the entire electoral process;

--The EC would appreciate U.S. assistance in ensuring that
all parties in Venezuela -- government, opposition, and civil
society -- will respect the mission's findings.

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EU COLOMBIA SUPPORT TO UNFOLD WITH EVENTS
--------------


6. (C) Shapiro described the progress being made in Colombia
under President Uribe's leadership, and underlined the USG
decision to commit USD 20.5 million to support demobilization
of paramilitaries. He urged the EU also to increase, as much
as possible, its monetary, in-kind and personnel support for
the peace process with paramilitary groups (ref B). Kovanda
said that the EU was prepared to assist victims of the
conflict and to support the reintegration of child
combatants. Referring to the EU FonMins' October declaration
on Colombia, Pascual said the EU was willing to work with the
Justice and Peace Law as the framework, but was observing
closely the law's implementation before committing to steps
beyond those mentioned by Kovanda. He added that it was also
up to the Colombians to put concrete proposals for assistance
on the table for EU consideration. Cloos said prospects for
future EU support were good; the EU supported Uribe, and
recognition of Uribe's accomplishments had grown among EU
officials and citizens.

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EU SHARES BOLIVIA CONCERNS
--------------


7. (C) Shapiro recounted all of the problems facing Bolivia,
stressing that, with its weak institutions, regional and
ethnic tensions, and Movement Towards Socialism leader Evo
Morales' revolutionary populism, Bolivia would be very
difficult to govern after the December 18 elections. Kovanda
confirmed the EU was not sending an observer mission to the
elections, because the Bolivians had not invited the EU far
enough in advance. In lieu of the EU, Shapiro urged his
interlocutors to encourage EU member states to send observers
to help the small OAS mission. Bruck reported that the
European Parliament (EP) was sending a group to observe
unofficially. (NOTE: An EP contact later told us the
decision had not yet been made, but that Spanish Socialist
Labor MEPs Emilio Menendez del Valle and Luis Yanez-Barnuevo
would probably be among those who would participate. END
NOTE.) Finally, Pascual reported that Evo Morales, on a
recent trip to Paris and Madrid, had been at pains to appear
moderate. At the same time, he had sent a "two-track"
message on developing Bolivia's natural gas sector: on the
one hand he said that, if he became president, he might
accept international private sector involvement; on the other
hand, he indicated that he would seek Venezuelan help if the
private sector did not accept his terms and conditions for
its involvement.



8. (C) CDA COMMENT: Shapiro's visit, together with the recent
visits of EUR PDAS Kurt Volker (ref D) and Cuba Transition
Coordinator Caleb McCarry (ref C),has demonstrated our
desire to intensify engagement with the EU on Latin America
and the Caribbean. Keeping the EU apprised of our interests
in the region -- and doing so beyond the twice-yearly COLAT
discussions -- helps encourage the EU to be more cooperative
on contentious issues and on longer-term democracy and
development goals in the region. To that end, we would like
to invite A/S Shannon to Brussels to meet with EU
counterparts early in the new year. END CDA COMMENT.

MCKINLEY
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