EU ELECTION TEAM LEADER DENOUNCES ETHIOPIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 003346

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR A/S FRAZER; DEPARTMENT ALSO PASS USAID FOR
D/AA - AFR ALMQUIST

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID KDEM ET EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: EU ELECTION TEAM LEADER DENOUNCES ETHIOPIA
ELECTIONS, CALLS FOR "BUSINESS AS USUAL" TO END

REF: (A) ADDIS ABABA 3117 (B) ADDIS ABABA 3122

Classified By: PRMOFF MARC J. MEZNAR. REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) Summary. At a September 13 hearing of the European
Parliament, the Chief Observer of the EU's election
observation mission in Ethiopia, MEP Ana Gomes (Portuguese
Socialist),condemned the GoE's handling of the redress
process and related human rights abuses. She urged the
international community to step up diplomatic pressure on the
Ethiopian government, particularly at the upcoming events in
New York. Gomes also said the European Commission should
reconsider its aid to Ethiopia which amounts to 500 million
euros per year. A final report on the elections, which will
be released in the coming weeks, will not be substantially
different from the interim report, but will include
recommendations for electoral reform. Gomes described a good
working relationship with the Carter Center and claimed the
election observers helped ensure that over 90% of eligible
voters cast ballots. End Summary.


2. (U) Gomes began her presentation to the Foreign Affairs
Committee by outlining Ethiopia's strategic importance: 70
million citizens who set an example of Christian-Muslim
toleration; troubled neighborhood, including Somalia and
Sudan, as well as a boundary dispute with Eritrea; diplomatic
links with the Gulf and headquarters of the African Union;
and, a Marxist-style regime in power that showed an opening
to democracy by allowing multi-party relations. She said
that the EU's decision to send the largest group of election
observers (over 160 spread throughout the country) reflected
Ethiopia's strategic importance. Gomes added that the GoE's
unprecedented openness in the campaign also influenced the
decision to observe these landmark elections. She credited
the involvement of the international community as the
catalyst for the "stunning" turnout of over 90% of eligible
voters.

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Timeline: Promising Start to Poison Pen Letter
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3. (U) According to Gomes, hints of trouble surfaced before
the elections when questions were raised about the
independence of the National Elections Board and during the
elections themselves when NGOs were prevented from observing.
However, "things started to unravel" in a dramatic way the
night of the elections when results indicated the opposition
was headed for a landslide victory in the capital. Gomes
traced the major developments, as follows:

-- May 15: Gomes issued a preliminary report, which was
basically positive but reflected concern about the
transparency of the counting;

-- May 24: The EU was forced to release a statement because
of growing concern that the results were being manipulated
and because of growing popular suspicion;

-- June 8: GoE security forces brutally repressed protestors,
killing 42 and arresting 5000 (including children). Gomes
praised the work of EU Member State embassies for their work
in getting 4500 prisoners released (without being charged).
Gomes stated that the GoE began harassing opposition leaders
and restricting the media (particularly radio and
television).

-- August 21: Re-runs were conducted in several regions
correctly, despite poor organization (particularly in the
Somali Region).

-- August 25: Complaints about the redress process resulted
in a preliminary statement of the EU observer mission which
concluded that the process had not met international
standards because of "serious intimidation and human rights
abuses." As an example, she cited maneuvers by the sitting
Parliament to financially strangle jurisdictions won by the
opposition. PM Meles, furious reaction was made public in a
14-page letter published by an official newspaper (reftel a).


-- August 29: The UK Presidency released a statement backing
Gomes' findings, noting her report was "balanced and
impartial". A similar public statement backing the Gomes
report was issued jointly by Commissioners Ferrero-Waldner
and Michel.

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Gomes says GoE must face consequences
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4. (U) Gomes said that despite the problems, the dramatic
increase for the opposition from 12 to 182 seats represented
a victory for democracy. She said that the "serious" human
rights violations committed by the GoE should not be ignored
by the international community. Gomes noted that this week
was "crucial" in determining whether it would be business as
usual at the UN or whether the GoE would be rebuffed. Gomes
was adamant that the GoE's actions "must have consequences"
in the EU-Ethiopia relationship.


5. (U) She also said the European Commission should
reconsider its annual assistance package of 500 million
euros, which includes substantial budget support. Gomes
noted that UN Special Envoy Marrti Ahtisaari has expressed
frustration at the way humanitarian aid is distributed
(excluding NGOs from the process) and land distribution
issues. MEP Michael Gahler (German Conservative) agreed with
Gomes' analysis and lamented that EU governments tend to
support the status quo; he also criticized European
Commission officials who "have an interest in playing down
massive electoral fraud" in Ethiopia.


6. (U) Regarding the U.S., Gomes said she hoped that
diplomatic efforts aimed at "stopping terror will not allow
dictatorships (like Ethiopia) to continue operating." Gomes
reported very good cooperation with the Carter Center,
particularly during the redress phase which began June 10.
Because neither side had expected the post-election phase to
continue for so long, it was essential that the various
monitoring teams coordinate their activities. She expected
the analysis of the Carter Center to track essentially along
the same lines as the EU's (reftel b).

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Next Steps
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7. (U) Gomes expects to issue the final report within the
next few weeks. She said it will not be substantially
different from the preliminary one, but will be more
forward-leaning in nature. One recommendation will be for
Ethiopia to compile a permanent registry of voters (instead
of the lists drawn up for each election) to reduce fraud.


8. (U) Responding to a concern expressed by MEP Veronique de
Keyser (Belgian Socialist),Gomes discounted the possibility
that the final report might provoke a new popular uprising
and more deaths, noting the lack of popular reaction to the
interim report. She contrasted this with PM Meles' emotional
response, saying that a 14-page letter was a tacit
acknowledgement that he could not continue doing business as
usual.


9. (U) During the Q & A period following her report, various
MEPs praised Gomes' work, defended her actions and even
suggested she should win the EU,s Sakharov prize for
defending human rights.


10. (U) DG RELEX Head of Unit for Human Rights and
Democratization Rolf Timans, said that the European
Commission "to a large extent" supports the Gomes report and
praised the "huge effort" she made. However, he said that he
would wait for the final report before making a conclusive
analysis. Timans also said that Commissioners Ferrero-Walder
and Michel will meet with PM Meles in New York in order to
clarify the Commission's support for the observation mission.
He said that it was impossible to disassociate the technical
from the political issues which the report raised. Above
all, he said that the Commission hoped to stabilize the
situation in Ethiopia in order to prevent further bloodshed
and to help the GoE open a healthy dialogue with opposition
groups.

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Comment
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11. (C) Behind the scenes, there has been a lot of post-play
quarterbacking in Brussels about Ana Gomes' handling of the
Ethiopian elections. The carefully chosen words by the EU
Council and the Commission are aimed at standing up for human
rights and supporting the independent mission of the European
Parliament while not jeopardizing the EU's relations with
Ethiopia. (Note. Tension with Ethiopia has already been
aggravated by the boundary dispute situation. End Note.)
Gomes cannot be written off as a "wacky" Parliamentarian.
She is a veteran Portuguese diplomat who as Ambassador to
Indonesia at the time of East Timor's independence gained
valuable experience in handling delicate political matters.
Furthermore, her erstwhile supporter in Addis, EU Chief of
Mission Timothy Clarke, has a solid technical background with
his previous portfolio as EuropeAid,s head of unit for
Democracy and Human Rights in Brussels. (That he is the
brother of UK Home Minister Charles Clarke undoubtedly
facilitates cooperation with the UK Presidency.) One EU
insider said that despite these professional credentials,
neither was prepared for the aggressive tenacity of the
Ethiopian authorities.


12. (U) USEU hopes that the upcoming meetings between A/S
Frazer and Gomes in New York and with USAID D/AA AFR Almquist
in Washington can further improve transatlantic cooperation
in observing elections and strengthening democracy in Africa.

McKinley
.