COORDINATOR FOR AFGHANISTAN QUINN MEETINGS WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRUSSELS 000284

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL SNAR EAID AF NATO USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: COORDINATOR FOR AFGHANISTAN QUINN MEETINGS WITH
EUROPEAN COMMISSION, COUNCIL


Classified By: USEU PolOff Sarah Groen for reasons 1.5(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. On January 20, Coordinator for Afghanistan
Ambassador Maureen Quinn and a joint State/Department of
Defense team met with European Council Director General
Robert Cooper and European Commission South Asia Head of Unit
Julian Wilson. Cooper said he is markedly more optimistic
about the situation in Afghanistan now than he was six months
ago, primarily because of the successful presidential
elections and signs of more resolve from the government of
Afghanistan. The meeting with Wilson focused more on the
specifics of EU participation in Afghanistan, with Wilson
saying the EU has set aside 8 million in funding for the
parliamentary elections in May, and that any additional
funding will have to be diverted from other projects.
Ambassador Quinn thanked the EU for its assistance to
Afghanistan, and asked for follow-through on commitments and
additional assistance on alternative livelihoods. She also
suggested that the EU consider providing development experts
who could be stationed with provincial reconstruction teams.
END SUMMARY.

COOPER: BIG PICTURE IMPROVING
=============================


2. (C) Cooper told Ambassador Quinn that he is more positive
about the situation in Afghanistan now than he was six months
ago. He said he had originally thought Karzai "a nice guy"
but unable to govern effectively; he now sees signs of
stiffening resolve from the Afghan government (such as
Karzai's formation of a new cabinet mostly devoid of
warlords). It is good that Ismail Khan and Fahim Khan have
been moved on, Cooper said. He thought "we should pay
attention to (former interior minister and presidential
runner-up Yunus) Qanooni," because "the idea of having an
opposition is not a bad one." Qanooni is a natural
politician, Cooper said, adding that he is "always suspicious
of a government of national unity."


3. (C) "Everything goes well except drugs, basically," was
Cooper's take on the current situation. Ambassador Quinn
agreed that the narcotics problem was a "big black cloud,"
but pointed out that the issue is front and center and that
progress is being made. She said every effort is being made
to give the counter-narcotics effort an "Afghan face." This
is an area, Quinn said, where the EU could make a big
contribution, by helping develop alternative livelihoods (an
area in which it has expertise).


4. (C) Ambassador Quinn mentioned she had previously met the
Commission's Julian Wilson and EU Special Representative in
Afghanistan Francesc Vendrell in New York. Cooper expressed
confidence in Vendrell, saying that while he (Cooper) used to
be more involved in Afghanistan--he participated in the Bonn
conference--he now defers to Vendrell, and finds him "very
acute." (Note: Vendrell's six-month tenure is up for renewal
in the next month. End Note.)


5. (C) Cooper asked about the current status of Operation
Enduring Freedom. Ambassador Quinn said our commitment to
Operation Enduring Freedom is still strong, noting that the
effort has shifted from counter-terrorism to
counter-insurgency, with OEF forces staying in one place and
building relationships with local leaders. A more robust
effort by Pakistan along the border has also made a big
difference. Both elements have led to successes in recent
months. Cooper said he thought a successful
counter-insurgency effort was all about having a credible
government that can maintain order.


6. (C) Ambassador Quinn highlighted the success stories of
the Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs),and said we will
be encouraging more European participation, ideally with the
contribution of EU development experts to the PRTs. She also
pointed out that after the parliamentary elections, the Bonn
process winds down, and asked if Cooper had any thoughts on
what might come afterwards. "It's clear Afghanistan will
still need a considerable amount of outside support," he said.


7. (C) Toward the end of the meeting, Cooper seemed to reach
a main message he wanted to communicate. "If you want to
make an impact (in Afghanistan),there is no substitute for
military involvement," he acknowledged. But the consequence
of American military power in Afghanistan is that the EU can
feel sidelined. "If you can find ways of recognizing that
the EU is an important player in Afghanistan, the more likely
support is to continue," he said. He said the level of
overall EU interest in Afghanistan is waning a bit, as
progress is made there and as other parts of the world become
more urgent hotspots; Afghanistan now has "less visibility"
(although certain key member states such as France, Germany
and the UK are still very focused on the country). Cooper
suggested that when President Bush and President Barroso meet
in February, President Bush should recognize the role of the
European Commission in Afghanistan. In response, Ambassador
Quinn reaffirmed that "we do recognize and value the EU
commitment" to Afghanistan, and discussed key projects where
we would welcome further EU contributions: roads,
alternative livelihoods and other counter-narcotics
assistance, and provision of civilian personnel for the PRTs.


COMMISSION: ELECTION FUNDING AND LONG-TERM STRATEGY
============================================= ======


8. (C) While Ambassador Quinn's discussion with Cooper
covered the big picture, her meeting with Julian Wilson of
the European Commission focused more on specifics of EU
involvement in Afghanistan, including updates on election
funding, the EU Kabul-Jalalabad road project, and potential
shifts in Commission funding over the next several years.


9. (C) On election funding, Wilson told us the Commission
has currently set aside 8 million to support the
Parliamentary elections in May. This is down from the 21
million the Commission provided for the presidential
elections. Asked why, Wilson pointed out that the initial
21 million had included funding for voter registration in
advance of the presidential elections, a one-time task. He
assured us, however, that if it comes to a "bun fight" around
the donors table, where donors have to dig deeper into their
pockets to meet higher election costs, the EU will be at that
table because it is important to them politically. Wilson
pointed out that if the Commission is to contribute more than
8 million to elections, the money will have to be diverted
from other projects.


10. (C) Discussing more long-range plans for assistance to
the region, Wilson said that the Commission's new 7-year
funding plan (which would cover 2007-2013) would raise the
overall amount of money allotted to South and Central Asia,
but that there may be a strategic shift in funding
priorities, possibly leading to a decrease in funding for
Afghanistan. He said the Commission currently provides
assistance funds in the amount of 200 million annually to
Afghanistan and 50 million to Pakistan; in the next
seven-year plan, that amount could rise to 400 million
annually for both countries, with 150 million going to
Afghanistan.


11. (C) This re-alignment fits, Wilson said, with the EU's
conception of Afghanistan as a "symptom" of wider problems in
that part of the world, problems which must be addressed in
countries such as Pakistan if Afghanistan is to be
successful. He said the EU is interested in taking a
"longer-term, coherent" approach to the region, which would
put Afghanistan in the context of neighbors to the north as
well as to the east. He suggested that in the long run,
there might be an internal reorganization at the European
Commission that would group together offices dealing with
South and Central Asian countries all the way from Iran to
Bangladesh. Wilson stressed that the new funding plan is
still under the discussion, and that the decisions on how to
prioritize the funding are made "far above my pay grade."
The 2007-2013 financial plan will probably be completed later
this year.


12. (C) Wilson raised the issue of the timetable for
parliamentary elections. Ambassador Quinn said that Karzai
and the Government of Afghanistan are starting to make key
decisions which need to happen before elections. Our sense,
she told him, is that elections can happen by late May or
early June at the latest, and that it is important to stick
to thise original timeframe so that the attention of the
international community does not shift elsewhere. Wilson
noted that personnel support for the elections could also be
a factor; many UN personnel are reaching the ends of their
contracts, and are choosing not to renew. This may be due to
the fatigue of working in a stressful area, and also to the
fact that world attention has to some extent shifted
elsewhere, and other crises are now more immediate.


13. (C) Finally, Ambassador Quinn touched briefly on the
issue of Commission support for the Italian judicial sector
project (which Wilson said he would look into),and asked
about the status of the Commission-funded Kabul-Jalalabad
road. Commission Afghanistan Desk Officer Jonathan Hatwell,
who visited Afghanistan and checked on the road project in
November 2004, said that the project has largely recovered
from a June 2004 attack that killed several employees of a
Chinese company working on the EU project. Extra security
was put in place, and he believes the work is now back on
track, progressing at a rate of 10-12 kilometers per month.


14. (U) Ambassador Quinn cleared this cable.

MCKINLEY
.