Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BRUSSELS2822
2005-07-26 15:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH EU OFFICIALS

Tags:  PREL AL BK MK SR EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002822 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2015
TAGS: PREL AL BK MK SR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH EU OFFICIALS
ON THE BALKANS


Classified By: USEU Political Military Officer Jeremy Brenner for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002822

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/2015
TAGS: PREL AL BK MK SR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: DAS ROSEMARY DICARLO'S MEETINGS WITH EU OFFICIALS
ON THE BALKANS


Classified By: USEU Political Military Officer Jeremy Brenner for reaso
ns 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. According to EU Council and Commission
officials, there can be no "shortcut" to EU membership for
the countries of the Western Balkans, although their European
perspective remains the long-term goal. Kai Eide is "gloomy"
and disappointed with what he has seen of the standards
implementation. The direction of the Commission report due in
November on Macedonia's progress (the "avis") remains
undecided. The Montenegro referendum is "inevitable" and may
produce negative effects just as the Kosovo status is heating
up. Albanian elections were "partially in compliance" with
international standards, but the initial ODHIR assessment was
too harsh. End summary.

--------------
Kosovo and the Standards Review
--------------


2. (C) EUR DAS for South Central Europe, Rosemary DiCarlo,
met July 18 with Stephan Lehne of the EU Council Secretariat
and Reinhart Priebe of the Commission for a tour d'horizon of
the Balkans. Lehne noted the July 19-20 visit to Belgrade by
EU SG/HR Solana, saying that Solana would impress upon
Kostunica and Tadic the need for participation by the K-Serbs
in the Kosovo political process. He said that Special Envoy
Kai Eide was "gloomy" and "disappointed" by what he has seen
of the standards implementation in Kosovo on his initial
visits. Lehne said that the message to the Kosovars has to be
that they should not take the review process for granted and
that the outcome is not a foregone conclusion. Lehne said
that the standards review should be a "fitness test" for the
Kosovars, and now is the time for them to prove their
capacity for positive change. Lehne lamented that Eide and
SRSG Jessen-Petersen do not work well together -- in part
because Eide's review is seen as an examination of UNMIK's
work.


3. (C) Lehne said that there are two options for the outcome
of Eide's report. The first would be to delay the start of
status talks, and to try to use conditionality as leverage

for improvements. The second option would be to recognize
that implementation of the standards has not been good, but
that it is time to move ahead with status negotiations
anyway. Lehne favors the second option, saying that there is
little to be gained by further conditionality on the review,
and that the lack of status is in itself inhibiting movement.
He cautioned that a delay in the start of status
negotiations could be "risky," and only the negotiations
could generate the political impetus needed for progress.
When asked about possible candidates for the position of
Special Envoy for the negotiations, Lehne replied that of the
several names circulating, the one he hears mentioned most
often is that of former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari.
In Lehne's view, one of Ahtissari's strengths is that he can
-- and does -- speak to heads of state on an equal footing.

--------------
Montenegro Referendum
--------------


4. (C) Lehne characterized the referendum as an "inevitable
issue," and said that he feared the worst case outcome. In
Lehne's view, the worst result would be if President
Djukonovic were to hold a referendum in April 2006 "on his
own terms" that was boycotted by the opposition. Djukonovic
would declare a victory, the opposition would reject it as
illegitimate, thereby causing major problems for the
International Community just at the "hottest stage" of the
Kosovo process. Lehne said that Djukonovic had "hinted" that
he might be willing to postpone the referendum until
September 2006 if the IC could "deliver" participation by the
SNP. Lehne called for agreement on the rules of the game,
committing both sides to accept the results of the voting as
legitimate. His fear is that Djukonovic will conclude that he
has the necessary votes on the ground, and will proceed
without the IC -- thereby provoking the worst-case outcome
that Lehne believes most likely.

--------------
Enlargement outlook
--------------

5. (C) Both Priebe and Lehne cautioned that there could be no
"shortcuts" to EU membership for the countries of the Western
Balkans. Priebe was especially adamant that it is out of the
question to lower criteria for membership. Priebe emphasized
that the European perspective for the region remained, as was
reiterated in statements by the June European Council. He
said that the burden of proof has shifted as a result of the
no votes on the Constitutional treaty, so that it is up to
the countries concerned to demonstrate to the citizens of the
EU that they would not import instability and crime if they
enter the union. He said it is very important for the
Kosovars to understand that the standards review process is
not a substitute for meeting the much more demanding
Copenhagen criteria. Priebe also noted the high expectations
among the Kosovars for significant economic assistance from
the EU and the International Community more generally.
--------------
Macedonia -- Commission Report
--------------


6. (C) Lehne characterized the Commission as "not hugely
happy" with progress in Skopje. The Commission's Priebe said
that the "avis" to be delivered in November would be a test
case for the region in that it would be a "fair assessment"
designed to give an encouraging signal to Macedonia, but it
was too early to predict which way the decision would go.
Both officials noted that the name issue is "getting in the
way," though Lehne did not believe that Athens would veto
Macedonia's candidate status over the issue.

--------------
Albanian Elections
--------------


7. (C) Priebe anticipates that the final ODHIR report on the
Albanian elections will find that there was "partial
compliance" with international electoral standards,
reflecting the fact that in the Balkans there are few clear
answers but only shades of grey. Priebe suggested that the
preliminary report was too harsh in its findings. There are
no plans to suspend Albania's Stabilization and Association
Agreement.

--------------
Bosnia
--------------


8. (C) Lehne said that HR Ashdown expects the police reform
process to move forward, based on signals from the RS of a
willingness to reach a compromise. Priebe said that the EU
would like to open negotiations of a Stabilization and
Association Agreement, but lack of movement on police reform
and public broadcasting is preventing it. Priebe said that
the successor to Lord Ashdown should not have -- or at least
not exercise -- the Bonn powers. They each cited the
impending tenth anniversary of the Dayton accords, with
Priebe observing that the Constitutional system as it exists
in Bosnia is unworkable and inconsistent with EU integration.
He called for Bosnian ownership of the political process, and
an openness to consideration of Constitutional reform.


9. (U) DAS DiCarlo has cleared this message.

McKinley

.