Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BRUSSELS2464
2005-06-28 08:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Brussels
Cable title:  

THE EU AT 25: DOES IT WORK?

Tags:  PREL PGOV EAID ETRD CMGT EUN USEU BRUSSELS 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002464 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ETRD CMGT EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: THE EU AT 25: DOES IT WORK?

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 B/D

SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002464

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ETRD CMGT EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: THE EU AT 25: DOES IT WORK?

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 B/D

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Despite arguments in some quarters that an EU of 25
members could not work without the streamlined Council
decision-making procedures of the proposed EU Constitutional
Treaty, we do not believe that EU enlargement has led to EU
gridlock. Over one year after enlargement, the expansion of
the EU to 25 members has not produced the decision-making
paralysis some feared. The new ten members have influenced
the outcome of some EU debates, such as policy on Russia, by
shifting the balance between pre-existing divisions among the
EU-15, but this has not blocked decisions. Enlargement has
aggravated divisions within the EU in only a very few
specific examples, such as policy toward northern Cyprus.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) One of the key rationales given by partisans of the
EU's Constitutional Treaty has been that, in order for the EU
to avoid institutional paralysis as it grew to 25 members, it
needed to streamline its decision-making procedures. In
particular, the draft constitutional treaty moved away from
unanimity decisions to more use of super-majority voting
(which in Eurojargon is known as "qualified majority voting"
or QMV). With the defeat of the Constitutional Treaty in
both the Dutch and French referenda, the EU is going to have
to live with its current decision-making rules for some time
to come. Based on just over one year's experience with the
EU functioning at 25, this message examines whether the EU's
enlargement is contributing to gridlock in EU decision-making
or not, and the implications for the U.S.


3. (C) In this Mission's view, fears of gridlock were
overblown. Over the course of the past year, there are few
instances where the presence of the ten new members appears
to have blocked or delayed the EU in taking a decision on a
general policy issue. Enlargement has sometimes been blamed
as a complicating factor even when it was not the case. As

an example, Luxembourg PM Juncker claimed that revision of
the Stability and Growth Pact earlier this year would have
been easier among just the eurozone group, but other EU
officials have acknowledged that this was a case of Juncker
scapegoating the new members for divisions that were already
present among the EU-15, where the Dutch were as dogmatic as
any member state in opposition to relaxing the Pact. Perhaps
the only cases that we are aware of where a new member has
significantly delayed a general EU policy decision were
Polish objection and delay to a directive on patenting of
computer software, and Cyprus' foot-dragging on opening trade
and aid with Northern Cyprus.


4. (C) EU enlargement has complicated decision-making on some
policy issues that the new members view as of vital national
interest, however. The most prominent of these, as noted
above, is the EU's ongoing struggle to approve measures
intended to end the isolation of northern Cyprus. Because
the Cypriot government has been willing to treat this issue
as its most important priority in all its dealings within the
EU, its exercise of its veto regarding trade liberalization
measures with the north of the island has meant the entire EU
has been unable to act.


5. (C) While not contributing much to EU paralysis, the new
ten have had important influence on some EU policies,
particularly those of keen national interest to them. The
attitudes of the eight central and eastern European members,
especially the Balts and the Poles, had a significant impact
on EU policy toward Russia and Ukraine. Members such as
Slovenia and Hungary have been vocal in joining Austria and
some others to urge a faster accession path for Balkan
states, even if it could involve a weakening of the EU's ICTY
conditionality. And a number of the new member states have
added their support to the camp within the EU supporting more
liberal economic reforms, liberalization of labor markets and
flexible tax regimes (or blocking pressure from some member
states to take EU economic regulation in the other direction).


6. (C) But, as these examples demonstrate, the new member
states have not fallen outside the pre-existing range of
policy opinions among the EU-15. What their presence has
done is shift the balance in the Council (and to a far lesser
degree it appears in the European Parliament) toward one camp
or another among the EU-15. In part, this reflects the new
members' desire for credibility within the EU, which they
obtain by seeking coalitions with like-minded members among
the EU-15 on issues of concern to them. For example, the
Czechs, Poles and Balts work closely with the Nordic members
and, more generally, with Protestant, northern European
countries on issues such as EU relations toward Russia,
Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus.


7. (C) The on-going debates over the EU's budget for
2007-2013, which the June 16-17 European Council failed to
resolve, showed once again how pre-existing divisions among
the EU-15 define the real fault lines within the EU. The new
EU members, who include the seven poorest countries in the
EU, are keen to ensure they will benefit from continued
subsidies in the next EU budget. But they were ready to make
a deal on June 17, even giving up a portion of the assistance
money they expected. It was the old EU members, particularly
France and Britain, but others as well, who proved the most
intractable.

MCKINLEY
.