PREVIEW OF JUNE 13 EU FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002252

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID PGOV EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: PREVIEW OF JUNE 13 EU FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING

REF: A. STATE 105235

B. USEU BRUSSELS 2231

C. USEU BRUSSELS 2165

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (C) Much of EUFMs' energy at the June 13 GAERC will focus
on preparing the June 16-17 EU Summit, especially
negotiations on the EU budget and failed Constitutional
Treaty. Decisions on Uzebkistan and Cuba should be as
reported REFs B and C. Other topics are unlikely to produce
much news, although there may be some debate about how
clearly either the GAERC or the EU Summit should reaffirm the
EU's commitment to continued enlargement, and on how to
handle Croatia. China should not be discussed next week, but
will almost certainly be on the agenda at the July 18 GAERC.
END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) We delivered REF A points on the upcoming General
Affairs and External Relations Council meeting to Judith
Gebestroithner of Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet on
June 10. Also on June 10 Luxembourg Perm Rep Martine
Schommer provided a background briefing for the press on the
Presidency's expectations for the June 13 GAERC. Both noted
that a major focus of the EUFMs will be on preparing the
agenda for the EU Summit on June 16-17, where the dominating
issues will be how the EU responds to the French and Dutch
rejections of the EU's Constitutional Treaty, and an effort
to reach final agreement on the EU budget framework for
2007-2013. Both items remain under serious debate within the
EU, and neither outcome is clear at this point.

MIDDLE EAST
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3. (SBU) In response to REF A points, Gebestroithner
indicated there was likely to be no real news from the GAERC
on the Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Middle East points.
Participants in the EU-3 negotiations with Iran and in the EU
Troika visit to Baghdad will report, but no new EU policies
toward either country are expected to be decided. (NOTE: We
understand from a Council source, however, that at least one
EU Member State is urging the EU to name an EU Special
Representative for Iraq. END NOTE.) Schommer told the press
that the June 16-17 EU Summit would likely issue a
declaration on the Middle East Peace Process, but did not
discuss details of what would be in it.

BALKANS AND ENLARGEMENT
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4. (C) On the Balkans, FMs will discuss a joint paper on the
EU role in Kosovo prepared by High Rep Solana and
Commissioner Rehn (a copy of the paper - strictly protect -
has been sent to EUR/ERA and SCE). A Declaration supporting
the ideas in the paper and echoing recent language from
Contact Group meetings will also be issued at the June 16-17
Summit. GAERC Conclusions will also take note of recent
developments in Bosnia-Herzegovina, expressing regrets over
the failure to agree on police reforms. The EU Task Force on
Croatia will also meet on Sunday, June 12 to consider the
most recent letter from ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte (copy sent
to EUR/ERA and SCE). While most of our contacts indicate
that Del Ponte's letter will compel the EU to continue
postponing Croatia's accession negotiations, Gebestroithner
(who is also an Austrian diplomat) indicated the Austrian
government would likely insist on a discussion of the issue
during the GAERC lunch.


5. (C) Gebestroithner added that the Luxembourg Presidency
was proposing that the EU Summit Conclusions on June 17
should include a reaffirmation the EU's commitment from
Thessaloniki in 2003 that the Balkan states have a European
perspective. The current draft Summit Conclusions also would
repeat the December 2004 European Council's decision that
accession negotiations with Turkey should open on October 3,
assuming Turkey meets the conditions related to Cyprus.
Gebestroithner stressed, however, that these draft Summit
Conclusions had not yet been agreed by all 25 EU Member
States.

CENTRAL ASIA/UZBEKISTAN
--------------


6. (C) The GAERC will also consider the situation in
Uzbekistan. As reported in REF B, the EU is considering
tougher measures against Uzbekistan that it might take if the
GoU rejects the EU's call for agreement by end of June on a
commission of inquiry into the events in Andijon.
Gebestroithner and Schommer both indicated, however, that
what precise measures might be taken was still under
discussion and unlikely to be included in the June 13 GAERC
Conclusions. Gebestroithner also added that the Commission
was very reluctant to see the EU's Partnership and
Cooperation Agreement (PCA) affected by any punitive
measures, although the proposal was under discussion in the
Council. Schommer told the press the GAERC would likely
agree in principle to name an EU Special Representative for
Central Asia.

CUBA
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7. (C) As reported REF C, the EU is unlikely to make any
significant changes to its policy on Cuba. Gebestroithner
said that, while there would be some discussion of Cuba at
the GAERC, it might be so brief that it was unclear if
Development Commissioner Michel would even bother to attend.

TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS
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8. (U) The GAERC would discuss preparations for the US-EU
Summit on June 20 and the Canada-EU Summit on June 19, but
this was unlikely to be a major topic of EU FMs' discussions.

UNITED NATIONS
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9. (U) The GAERC will also issue Conclusions on preparations
for the September UN Summit. Schommer indicated a focus
would be on the EU's support for "effective multilateralism"
and the UN reform process.

CHINA
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10. (U) Gebestroithner confirmed that there should be no
discussion of China or the Code of Conduct at the June 13
GAERC. But she did note that China would be on the agenda of
the July 18 GAERC in the British Presidency, as that would be
the last GAERC prior to the EU-China Summit on September 5.
(NOTE: According to the calendar we have for the UK
Presidency, the informal EUFMs' Gymnich meeting will be held
on September 1-2, however, just prior to the China Summit.
END NOTE.)

SCHNABEL
.