COMMISSION AND COUNCIL EXPECT SHORT GAERC MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001593

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015
TAGS: PREL EAID KPAL IZ LE ZI CG SU EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: COMMISSION AND COUNCIL EXPECT SHORT GAERC MEETING
ON APRIL 25

REF: A. STATE 72185


B. USEU BRUSSELS 1550

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
--------------

1. (U) A shorter than normal GAERC on April 25 is unlikely to
take any significant decisions on external relations topics.
On the Middle East, the GAERC is exepcted to issue
Conclusions on the MEPP, Iraq and Lebanon. Africa discussion
will focus on the Great Lakes, with any new decisions on
Zimbabwe or Sudan likely to await further assessment of these
situations. A discussion on Russia should focus almost
entirely on preparations for the May 10 EU-Russia Summit.
EUFMs are unlikely to have much substantive discussion on the
Balkans, although the first meeting of an ad hoc Task Force
on Croatia and its cooperation with the ICTY will meet in the
GAERC margins on April 25 (septel). END SUMMARY.


2. (U) In response to Ref A points, Commission and Council
sources told us they expect a rather short discussion on
external relations topics at the April 25 General Affairs and
External Relations Council (GAERC) in Luxembourg. Media
attention will be more focused on the signing ceremony that
afternoon of the EU Accession Treaty for Romania and
Bulgaria, and EU FMs will end the GAERC early to participate
in that event. Much of the morning GAERC discussion will
also be taken up by discussion of the Luxembourg Presidency's
most recent proposals on the framework for negotiating the
EU's 2007-2013 budget, despite the fact that no serious
budget negotiations will begin until after the May 5 UK
elections and May 29 French referendum.

MIDDLE EAST TOPICS
--------------

3. (SBU) GAERC discussions on the MEPP and Iraq should follow
familiar lines, although a Council source expressed some
questions about how the GAERC might respond to reports that
the Israeli Defense Minister has proposed a delay of the Gaza
withdrawal. On Iraq, the Luxembourg Presidency plans to
brief ministers on the modalities for the upcoming
international conference, following the visit of U.S. Iraq
Coordinator Amb. Jones to Brussels on April 21, but wants to
avoid negotiating details of the conference with the 25
member states.


4. (C) On Lebanon, External Relations (RELEX) Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet told us the EU would reiterate its
earlier readiness to assist with electoral preparations.
Beyond that, our contact said the April 16 Gymnich discussion
on Lebanon established a strong consensus that the EU should
be prepared to step in quickly to support a new government
post-elections. The Commissioner returned from the Gymnich
eager to act on this view and has asked RELEX staff to begin
preparations for a technical assessment mission even before
the elections are held, so that the EU can respond "faster
than we usually do."

AFRICA
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5. (C) Africa discussions at the GAERC will focus largely on
the Great Lakes. The EU remains concerned DR Congo's draft
constitution does not contain sufficient balance of powers to
ensure democratic governance. The "winner takes all" system
could be a catalyst for post-election violence, since losers
will have no incentive to support the new government.
Furthermore, it will generate another autocratic regime on
the continent. Another area of concern is the slow pace of
the DRC's security sector reform. The EU is pleased with
developments relating to MONUC and feels that AU peacekeepers
will not be necessary if an integrated Congolese force can
help MONUC ensure stability. High Rep Solana and
Commissioner Michel will visit Kinshasa Apirl 29 to press
these points.


6. (C) A Commission source said the UK was pressing for the
EU to respond to developments in Zimbabwe, but other member
states were not so ready to react. The EU is still assessing
the impact of Zimbabwe's election; only at a later GAERC are
they likely to discuss possible measures (such as expanding
the travel ban list). On Sudan, the EU shares our concern
about the deteriorating food situation. They are still
examining the technical aspects of expanding the AU mission.

RUSSIA
--------------

7. (C) Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet said the GAERC discussion on
Russia would focus entirely on the EU-Russia Summit, and the
Summit agenda should be focused on agreements over the four
"common spaces." The Commission is "still optimistic" that
all four can be agreed by the Summit, although our source
acknowledged this would only be possible by agreeing language
that leaves some critical issues for further negotiations.
It is doubtful agreement will be found by May 10 on the
dispute over Siberian overflights, or on procedures for a
readmission agreement on illegal migrants. The Commission
expects that other issues of concern with Russia such as
human rights, or rule of law and the business environment
(Yukos or BP cases) would only be raised on the margins.

OTHER ISSUES
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8. (SBU) The Commission on April 20 proposed a package of
measures, drawing on the post-tsunami experience in December,
on how the EU can improve its disaster response. The
Commission expects member states to ask for more time to
review the proposals, and serious debate on these topics will
come only in May. On the Balkans, the Commission expects the
GAERC to easily agree on it's recommendation that the EU
begin negotiations on a Stabilization and Association
Agreement with Serbia and Montenegro later this year. GAERC
Conclusions should also be issued on recent developments in
Macedonia (see REF B for details).

MCKINLEY
.