Gymnich Takes No Decision on China Arms,

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001542

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TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID MASS CH EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: Gymnich Takes No Decision on China Arms,
Confirms Views on Mid-East and Frozen Conflicts

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) The EU's informal "Gymnich" meeting of
foreign ministers sought to place the EU-China
relationship in a broader context, but the arms
embargo issue loomed over the discussion. A Council
staffer told us a consensus still exists within the
EU to work on the issue, but a majority of member
states feel there is no hurry on making a decision.
Some Member States also argued no EU decision should
be made until they see how the upcoming "strategic
dialogue" with the US and Japan on China goes. In
discussions on Belarus and "frozen conflicts" in the
former Soviet Union, the EU stuck with an
"incremental" approach, in part to avoid provoking
Moscow -- thus, no change to the EU's cautious
approach on a Georgia border-monitoring mission. On
the Middle East, despite an internal discussion
paper designed to provoke new thinking on how to
promote reform, we were told little new came out of
the debate, other than an intention to
"reinvigorate" the EU's Barcelona Process at its
tenth anniversary in November. Luxembourg FM
Asselborn also announced the EU would host an
international conference on Iraq in June (assuming
the Iraqi government requests such a meeting),but
said the content of the conference would only be
discussed by EUFMs at the next GAERC meeting on
April 25. END SUMMARY.

CHINA
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2. (U) Lux FM Jean Asselborn told the press the
Gymnich discussion focused on the growing importance
of China in the world, especially its increased
economic role as a result of continued internal
market reform and unprecedented growth. Asselborn
said there was no decision on the arms embargo; and
none had been expected at a Gymnich. But he
admitted that the fact the issue was still being
debated was a sign that no consensus had been
reached within the EU to lift the embargo. The
Luxembourg Presidency would continue to prepare for
a lifting, but several items still needed to be
resolved.


3. (U) The EU will continue to work on the Code of
Conduct and Toolbox with a view towards taking a
decision, but other criteria also count, e.g., human
rights, regional stability, and the "national
security of friendly or allied nations." He
stressed the issue was not being considered in a
vacuum. The EU expressed concern over China's anti-
secession law and rising tensions with Japan.
Asselborn also noted the importance of the EU-China
dialogue on human rights begun in 1995 and said the
results of the last meeting in February were "not
negative." But there remains a need for better
relations in many areas, including ratification of
the International Covenant on Civil and Political
Rights; the Chinese said this would happen "in the
near future", but that could mean a year from now.
If it were done during the Luxembourg Presidency
that would be helpful, he declared. Asselborn said
he raised the issue of remaining Tiananmen prisoners
with the Chinese FM two weeks ago. Commissioner
Ferrero-Waldner stressed the EU-China relationship
involved much more than simply the issue of the arms
embargo. She also noted the U.S. and EU have agreed
to begin a "balanced and symmetrical" strategic
dialogue related to stability and cooperation in
Asia.


4. (SBU) According to a Council staffer involved in
the Gymnich, the essential outcome of the EUFMs'
discussion of the arms embargo was that a consensus
still exists within the EU to work on the issue, but
a majority of member states now make the point that
there is no hurry on a decision, and it doesn't
really matter whether it happens "in the next few
months or in a couple of years."


5. (SBU) French FM Barnier still took the line the
embargo should be lifted, but even he acknowledged
the context was not headed in the right direction.
Dutch FM Bot told Dutch press that the embargo was
further away from being lifted than at any point
since when it was first raised in December 2003. A
Danish reporter said FM Stig Moller reported that
the momentum was going heavily against a lift (and
reportedly said that France and Luxembourg were
about the only ones making very sympathetic noises
about lifting; with the Dutch, Czechs, Brits, Danes
and Portuguese among the most negative). One
diplomat told us Czech FM Svoboda took the line
that, with the political dialogue with the US
beginning, it only made sense to wait and see how
these talks go before taking the issue up again.
They garnered some support for this approach, but
not consensus. Several FMs noted the subject was
almost certain to be on the June 16 European Council
agenda, regardless of developments, since the
December 2004 European Council Conclusions had set
that date as a target.

CAUCASUS AND BELARUS
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6. (U) Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner stressed that
the European Neighborhood Policy (ENP) must include
efforts to address the "frozen conflicts". She told
the press the EU is discussing how to assist Georgia
in a border-monitoring mission, either via an ESDP
operation or jointly with others in an OSCE
operation. In either case, no decision was taken at
the Gymnich, beyond confirmation of previous
decisions to add three staff to the EU special
envoy's office. Ferrero-Waldner noted that the EU
understood Georgia's "legitimate concern to maintain
an international presence", but also hoped Georgia
and Russia could come to some agreement.


7. (SBU) Council staffers told us the general EU
consensus is to take a very "incremental" approach
in Georgia, starting with beefing up EU envoy
Talvitie's operation. EUFMs discussed the relative
merits of an EU vs. OSCE operation, but, either way,
some member states are still nervous about provoking
Moscow. While some - Lithuania was named - want to
be more responsive to Georgian requests, they cannot
muster a consensus. The EU is watching with
interest whether an OSCE training mission may
happen. The Luxembourg Presidency's communique on
the South Caucasus said little, other than to note
the region will again be on the agenda at the April
25 GAERC. A concluding luncheon on the OSCE
produced nothing more than warm words of support for
the organization.


8. (U) On Belarus, in a written statement EUFMs
expressed concern about a political situation that
has not seen "even the slightest improvement." The
EU wants to support civil society, and continues to
investigate how the EU can influence the situation
in the country. Ferrero-Waldner said the EU wished
to help with a variety of projects with NGOs and
civil society, but was not looking to isolate low-
level Belarus officials entirely. She added the EU
was ready to establish a mission in Belarus, run
from Kiev.

MIDDLE EAST AND IRAQ
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9. (SBU) An internal discussion paper by the
Luxembourg Presidency and Council Secretariat (copy
faxed to EUR/ERA) proposed a list of questions for
FMs to consider, including whether the EU should
coordinate with the US on promoting reform, whether
the EU should engage with "Islamic faith based civil
society", and "what collective security architecture
can be envisaged" that could help stabilize the
region. But a Council staffer told us the actual
discussion among EUFMs broke no new ground. We have
not seen or heard of any statements on the MEPP
coming out of the Gymnich, despite advance reports
that the meeting might issue a statement on Gaza
withdrawal. The EUFMs' main focus reportedly was on
"reinvigorating" the Barcelona process via a Euro-
Med ministerial in Luxembourg on May 30, and at its
tenth anniversary summit in Barcelona in November.
On Iraq, Asselborn announced Luxembourg is planning
- "if the Iraqis request it" - to hold an
international conference on Iraq in Brussels in
early June. We understand the Gymnich did not
discuss this initiative, but the Luxembourg
Presidency will brief members about plans for the
conference at the April 25 GAERC.

MCKINLEY