WHAT NEXT ON CROATIA'S EU ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 001149

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/18/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID ETRD HR EUN USEU BRUSSELS
SUBJECT: WHAT NEXT ON CROATIA'S EU ACCESSION NEGOTIATIONS

REF: A. HOLTZAPPLE-ENGLISH ET AL 3/17/2005 EMAIL

B. LUXEMBOURG 250

C. STATE 44531

Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) As reported Ref A, EU Foreign Ministers on March 16
postponed opening of accession negotiations with Croatia.
The General Affairs and External Relations Council
Conclusions said negotiations would be opened "by common
agreement as soon as the Council has established that Croatia
is cooperating fully with the ICTY." But this issue will
reappear on the EU agenda quickly, and continue reappearing,
because the EU is unable to agree on a clear definition of
what "full cooperation" with ICTY means, and how it should be
assessed. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The decision to postpone accession negotiations was
supported by a clear majority of Member States, including the
UK, Germany, France and Italy, as well as the Commission.
Malta, Cyprus and Lithuania joined those (Austria, Slovenia,
Slovakia, Hungary) who have long been saying they were ready
to open negotiations, while Ireland and Poland both sent
signals about their readiness to reconsider the decision to
postpone. But divisions within the EU were on nearly public
display, with lots of spokesmen briefing on who took which
side. To the "dismay" of those EU Members who urged the
Council to send Croatia a strong and united message, Austria
insisted on inserting language (stating the decision was
taken "in the absence of common agreement") that revealed a
division of views within the Council.


3. (C/NF) The Luxembourg Presidency (FM Asselborn) at the
GAERC insisted categorically that the issue would not be
placed on the agenda of the March European Council on March
22-23, and sought to reinforce that message with the press at
the GAERC's concluding press conference, claiming that PM
Juncker agreed. But on March 18 we were told (strictly
protect) that Austrian Chancellor Scheussel had already sent
a letter the afternoon of March 16 to PM Juncker asking that
accession negotiations with Croatia be put on the agenda of
the March 22-23 European Council. (Croatian press is
claiming five EU Member States in total have made such a
request of Juncker.) We do not know whether Luxembourg has
responded, but we understand from REF B that PM Juncker was
disappointed the GAERC did not find a way to open
negotiations with Croatia, and in press comments both Juncker
and Asselborn have commented on their hope that "within a few
weeks" a way could be found to begin negotiations. Given,
however, that the same FMs who attended the GAERC will be at
the European Council alongside their Prime Ministers, the
most likely outcome of any Summit debate, if it happens,
would be to reconfirm the EU's internal divisions on this
issue (although, as one EU official put it to us, "the higher
up you go, the less predictable it gets").


4. (C) Assuming the EU's decision on March 22 remains
unchanged, a key factor will be how the Luxembourg Presidency
handles the issue for the rest of its Presidency. It will be
under considerable pressure to further define what the EU
means by full cooperation, and how and when the EU will
define it. The general sentiment within the Council is that,
while ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte's opinion will be
influential, the EU cannot sub-contract this judgement out to
the ICTY. And even the hardest-line Member States (UK,
Netherlands) have been unwilling to state as bluntly as the
US (REF C) that only Gotovina's presence in The Hague can
equal full cooperation.


5. (C) EU sources note Del Ponte is scheduled to do a written
report to the UN in late May, followed by an in-person
presentation to the UNSC on June 13. The UK and others will
likely signal that, in the absence of dramatic new measures
by the Croatian government or the resolution of this issue by
means of Gotovina's appearance in The Hague, there is little
point in reassesing Croatia's performance until after Del
Ponte's next report. This could mean including it on the
agenda of the European Council (Summit) on June 16-17, but
would, we hope, mean no further consideration until the first
GAERC of the British Presidency in July. Given Austrian
behavior to date, however, we expect they will take a stab at
forcing the issue at each month's GAERC, as well as next
week's Summit.

SCHNABEL
.