Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BRATISLAVA948
2005-11-29 16:16:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bratislava
Cable title:  

EIGHTEEN PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN SLOVAK REGIONAL

Tags:  PGOV KDEM SOCI LO 
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291616Z Nov 05
UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000948 

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

BUDAPEST PLEASE PASS USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: EIGHTEEN PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN SLOVAK REGIONAL
ELECTIONS


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000948

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

BUDAPEST PLEASE PASS USAID

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI LO
SUBJECT: EIGHTEEN PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT IN SLOVAK REGIONAL
ELECTIONS


SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (U) SUMMARY: In Slovakia's November 26 regional
elections, center-right governmental parties won the
majority of seats in six out of eight regional parliaments;
opposition parties Smer and HZDS won in two. Voter turnout
-- only 18 percent - fell below predictions. Ruling
coalition parties won 206 seats of the 412 total, while the
opposition took 126 seats. The Christian Democratic Party
(KDH) with 87 seats (an increase of 52) was far and away
the biggest winner, followed by opposition Smer with 70 (an
increase of 41),and Prime Minister Dzurinda's SDKU with 64
4
seats (an increase of 36). Vladimir Meciar's HZDS suffered
a crushing defeat in all regions, winning only 48 seats,
where before it held 191. The Party of the Hungarian
Coalition (SMK) ended up with 58 seats (a decrease of 26),
and lost its dominance in the Nitra region due to the ad
hoc "Slovak coalition" (KDH, SDKU, HZDS, Smer, SNS) and won
only 17 seats (vice its previous 30). SMK's position was
weakened in Banska Bystrica and Kosice regions, too. All
eight of the regional governorships will have to be
contested again in a two person runoff election December

10. Smer and its coalition partners are poised to take 6
of these Zupan positions. END SUMMARY.

HUNGARIAN RANKS WEAKENED
--------------


2. (SBU) The Hungarian SMK party lost 26 seats nation-
wie, and now holds 58. In the Nitra region, where the
Hungarian minority makes up 30 percent of the population,
SMK was crushed by a strong counter-coalition of Slovak
parties, whose only stated goal was to deprive SMK of its
majority. SMK interlocutors have been telling us for the
past year that Hungarians are disillusioned with the
behavior of local politicians and would turn out in lower
numbers than in the past. Indeed, SMK voters -- usually
loyal to their party turned out in similarly poor numbers
in other regions, decreasing SMK's ranks in the Banska
Bystrica and Kosice regions as well.


3. (SBU) SMK reps were accused of nepotism and non-
transparent decisions in the Nitra region prior to the
elections, and all their decisions were blocked by Zupan
Milan Belica (HZDS). Prior to the election,
representatives from HZD, SDKU, SMK and Smer told us Belica

was obstructionist and uncooperative both with the regional
parliament and the mayors of the region. Nonetheless, he
will likely win the second run-off election as ethnic
Slovak parties unite to defeat the SMK candidate. SMK,
fearing another Belica administration, withdrew their
candidate in favor of the third-place finisher, SDKU's Jan
Greso, in the hopes of splitting the "Slovak" vote and
removing Belica from office.

HZDS CONTINUES TO SELF-DESTRUCT
--------------


4. (SBU) HZDS suffered another hard blow and won only 48
seats in regional parliaments, compared to 191 in the past
term. Meciar's strategy to isolate Smer and make
coalitions with governmental parties further disintegrated
the confused HZDS electorate. Meciar still has four
candidates in the game for the second run-off, but his
attempt to test the coalition potential with center-right
parties with an eye to the 2006 parliamentary elections
failed badly. HZDS is left without a single seat in the
Presov and Bratislava regions, and with only one seat in
Kosice. HZDS loyalists blame defectors from the party, who
either ran as independents or under the banners of other
parties. Meciar was admitted to the hospital in early
November with pneumonia, and has not made any statements
yet. HZDS deputy chairman Viliam Veteska has reluctantly
admitted failure and hinted publicly at the need to
reorganize the part. There has not been a specific call
for change in the HZDS leadership yet, though the party
decay is evident. Other analysts think that HZDS failed
because of its status as a "one man show," focused on
consolidating power within the party while losing voters to
Smer and SNS.

CENTER RIGHT PARTIES FARE WELL
--------------


5. (SBU) The low turnout did not harm the center-right
parties (as pollsters had predicted). Before the
elections, the SDKU party secretary said the party had
given up and "wasn't trying" hard, because it felt that
center-right parties were disadvantaged because of their


status as "urban" parties. SDKU's strong performance in
Presov region, in particular, was surprising to the party.
Oddly enough, KDH was successful in all coalitions in which
they paired with opposition Smer. This may portend
coalition possibilities after parliamentary elections.
Several KDH leaders have told us in recent months that if
Smer chairman Robert Fico becomes Prime Minister, it is
better to co-govern and preserve the reforms than to go to
the opposition and watch the reforms be undone.

NO ROMA ELECTED TO REGIONAL PARLIAMENTS
--------------


6. (SBU) Despite a well-financed and thorough campaign by
the National Democratic Institute (NDI) to develop Roma
politicians for regional parliament positions, none of the
Roma candidates was successful on election day.

COMMENT: VOTER TURNOUT COULD BE ISSUE NEXT YEAR
-------------- --


7. (SBU) The exceptionally low turnout in regional
elections is evident of the poor information and lack of
get-out-the-vote campaigns, magnified by an electorate
confused by the plethora of "unnatural" -- and often
controversial -- coalitions. As a result, most Slovak
voters from across the entire political spectrum chose the
"I have nobody to vote for" defense and stayed home on a
cold and snowy election day. The 18 percent turnout also
reflects voter disillusionment over recent political
scandals, which were often connected with corruption and
rarely resolved.


8. (SBU) COMMENT, Cont'd: The low voter turnout is a
clear warning about the unreliability of the Slovak
electorate - a serious matter for parties only 10 months
away from national elections. Due to the low turnout and
lack of clear party programs, it remains difficult to
speculate with any accuracy about the strength of
individual parties in the upcoming parliamentary elections.
END COMMENT.

A LOOK AT THE NUMBERS
--------------


9. (U) The following is a list of leading Zupan
candidates who will face each other in run-off elections
December 10, along with percentages of the vote each
received in the November 26 balloting. The list also
includes number of seats in regional parliaments won by the
major coalitions and the percentage of voter turnout:

Bratislava region
--------------
Zupan:
Vladimir Bajan (Independent but supported by Smer-SF-HZD-
KDH),41 percent
Lubo Roman (SDKU-ANO-SMK-DS-SZS),31 percent

Parliament:
SDKU-ANO-SMK-DS-SZS (center-right): 27
Smer-SF-HZD(center-left): 11
KDH (Christian Democrats): 6
OKS (Civic-Cons. Party): 2
Indpendent Forum 2
Independent 2

Voter turnout: 14.45 percent

Trnava region
--------------
Zupan:
Jozef Klokner (KDH-SDKU-DS),33 percent
Jozef Mikus (HZDS-LB-ZSNS-PSNS),26 percent

Parliament:
KDH-SDKU-DS: 15
SMK: 15
HZDS-LB-ZSNS-SNS: 3
Smer-HZD-SF-ANO: 2
Independent: 5

Voter turnout: 14.5 percent

Nitra region
--------------
Zupan:
Milan Belica (HZDS-ZSNS-ASV-KSS-LB-PSNS),42 percent
Laszlo Szigeti (SMK),26 percent


Parliament:
KDH-HZDS-SDKU-Smer-SNS: 34
SMK: 17
ANO-HZD-SF: 1

Voter turnout: 27.67 percent

Trencin region


Trencin region
--------------
Zupan:
Miroslav Chovanec (Smer-KDH-SNS-HZD-SF),35 percent
Pavol Sedlacek (HZDS-ANO-PSNS-ZSNS),28 percent

Parliament:
Smer-KDH-SNS-HZD-SF: 21
HZDS-ANO-PSNS-ZSNS: 20
Independent: 3

Voter turnout: 12.3 percent

Zilina region
--------------
Zupan
Juraj Blanar (Smer-SNS-ANO-HZD),30 percent
Jozef Tarcak (HZDS-PSNS-ZSNS),29 percent

Parliament:
KDH-SDKU-DS: 31
Smer-SNS-ANO-HZD: 15
HZDS-PSNS-SNS: 5
Independent: 5
OKS: 1

Voter turnout: 15.69 percent

Banska Bystrica region
--------------
Zupan:
Milan Murgas (Smer-SNS-HZD-KDH-SZS),39 percent
Jozef Mikus (SDKU-DS),21 percent

Parliament:
Smer-SNS-HZD: 18
HZDS-KSS-PSNS-ZSNS: 9
SDKU-KDH-DS: 9
SMK: 8
Independent: 5

Voter turnout: 18.65 percent

Kosice region
--------------
Zdenko Trebula (HZD-Smer),30 percent
Rudolf Bauer (KDH-OKS),27 percent

Parliament:
KDH-OKS: 13
SMK: 13
Smer-HZD: 12
Independent: 7
SDKU-DS-SZS: 6
ANO: 2
SRS: 2
HZDS: 1
SOS: 1


SRS: QQ2
HZDS: QQ1
SOS: QQ1

Voter turnout: 19.27 percent

Presov region
--------------
Zupan:
Peter Chudik (Smer-SNS-HZD),40 percent
Dusan Hruska (KDH-SDKU-DS),28 percent

Parliament:
KDH-SDKU-DS: 40
Independent: 12
Smer-SNS-HZD: 9
ANO: 1

Voter turnout: 19.47 percent


VALLEE

LEE


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