SLOVAKIA'S VIEWS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000861

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM EAID PGOV BO LO EUN
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA'S VIEWS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS

REF: A. (A) STATE 188900


B. (B) BRATISLAVA 00804

Classified By: CDA LAWRENCE R. SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Charge discussed Deputies Committee decisions on
policy toward Belarus (ref A) with MFA Director for CIS and
Balkans Stefan Rozkopal Oct. 21. Rozkopal provided a
preliminary reaction to some of the points, but said the GOS
hoped to have a clearer picture of the situation and how to
influence it after he and MFA PolDir Miro Lajcak visit
Belarus December 4-6. Lajcak will meet with opposition
figures as well as the Lukashenko government during his visit.


2. (C) Among GOS initial, informal reactions:

-- GOS shares view that EU is not moving fast or far enough
on Belarus. The EU is also taking an unwarranted break from
re-focusing its attention on Ukraine.

-- The one-time tough, direct approach to Lukashenko is good
as a shot across his bow and a marker for future relations
with the regime, but Lukashenko will not budge an inch.
Slovakia expects him to run and obviously win the elections.
Neither internal nor external forces will be able to affect
this outcome, although that should not stop support for
democratic forces.

-- The world will have to decide whether to recognize a
Lukashenko victory in the 2006 elections, regardless of our
position on his candidacy. This will depend on the conduct
of the elections. The EU has agreed at the working level
whether to consider his candidacy illegal, and he expected
that stance to be endorsed. Rozkopal asked on a strictly
informal basis whether there might be public or private U.S.
funding for Slovak election observers, either directly or as
part of a larger delegation of Visegrad 4 observers.

-- There is a role for engagement of GOB officials. Belarus
Deputy FM Alexander Mikhnevitch recently visited Bratislava
to discuss economic issues, and the Slovak Deputy Minister of
Culture is visiting Minsk now to open a cultural center
there. Mikhnevitch raised the issue of EU limits on Belarus
textiles and asked for help against the prospect of further
EU sanctions, which he argued would only hurt the little man
by increasing unemployment. Rozkopal noted that a strong
anti-EU campaign in Belarus is helping Lukashenko.

-- Relations between Russian President Putin and Lukashenko
were "very good," in Slovakia,s view; there was no sign of a
positive evolution of Russian views.

-- The GOS is very supportive of getting radio and perhaps TV
broadcasting going as soon as possible. Having studied data
on the Belarus radio audience, Slovakia concluded that most
programming should be done in Russian, with a minority of
time devoted to broadcasting in Belorussian.


3. (C) As we were leaving Rozkopal,s office, Slovak MP
Lazlo Nagy was stopping by to provide Rozkopal a briefing on
his own recent visit to Minsk to attend a Congress of
Democratic Forces gathering. Nagy, the Chairman of the
Slovak parliament,s Human Rights Committee and someone who
works hard to promote human rights issues both inside and
outside Slovakia, has invited Belarus opposition leader
Milinkevich to visit Bratislava soon.
SILVERMAN


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