STILL NO PARLIAMENTARY QUORUM AFTER A WEEK;

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000749

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR LO
SUBJECT: STILL NO PARLIAMENTARY QUORUM AFTER A WEEK;
COALITION HOPES TO SUCCEED 9/21

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 738

B. BRATISLAVA 730

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: A week after failing to gather
the quorum necessary to open parliament (ref B),the
Coalition failed again on September 20 to bring 76 MPs to the
chamber, reach quorum, and resume the council's session after
summer recess. Independent deputies continue to move in
mysterious ways, with several of the MPs the coalition was
counting on noticeably absent (or in one case, even departing
moments before the head count) from the chamber, while
several former opposition members left their party for good
to join the coalition movement. Despite the wheeling and
dealing of the past week, the coalition could get only 75
deputies to the table September 20. Prime Minister
Dzurinda's advisor confidently told us the coalition would
garner the necessary deputies September 21, and that seems to
be the analytical consensus here. If they do not, several
other options remain at the coalition's disposal, but early
elections would be almost certainly assured. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.

WITH FRIENDS LIKE THESE...
--------------


2. (C) At 9:00am September 20, Chairman of parliament Pavol
Hrusovsky attempted to open the parliamentary session which
had been postponed after falling three votes short of quorum
last week. While three independent MPs sent signals that
they would be joining the coalition to assist in this effort,
the three -- Ivan Kino, Gustav Krajci, and Robert Nemcsics --
were not present for the quorum count. SDKU MP Pal Farkas
told us that Nemcsics was present in the chamber before the
9:00am, quorum call, but that he left shortly before. Farkas
told us before the 10:00am call that he was sure that
Nemcsics had simply been called away by some sort of
important business; however, the 10:00am count came and went
without Nemcsics, Krajci, or Kino.


3. (C) SDKU MP Roman Vavrik told us after the count that he
believes that Krajci was there and that he simply pressed the
"wrong button" on the automated voting system, a story that
KDH MP Jozef Miklusicak told us as well. Vavrik also told us
that he believes that Ivan Simko -- who told the press
yesterday that he would not be participating in this
morning's attempted opening -- is closer to "pushing the
right button" at tomorrow's next scheduled roll call, but did
not elaborate on whether or not he believes Simko will reach
a deal with the coalition. Miklusicak told us that KDH MPs
are pleased because they believe Krajci was present for the
quorum, so they are confident that the session will begin
tomorrow. According to Miklusicak, KDH really was only
considering early elections as a "last resort."

NOT A PERFECT DAY FOR THE OPPOSITION, EITHER
--------------


4. (C) Despite the fact that the coalition failed to begin
the session, there was bad news today for the opposition, as
well: two HZDS MPs -- including Karol Dzupa, a longtime
party loyalist -- defected from Vladimir Meciar's party and
signed on to Lubomir Lintner's club of former ANO deputies.
By joining the club, MPs Dzupa and Eduard Kolesar (a former
IV participant) pledged their support for the coalition and
they showed up for the quorum call. In a press conference
following the failed quorum call, Meciar again called for
early elections on June 10, 2006. Meciar said he was
surprised by the departure of Dzupa and Kolesar, and declared
tongue-in-cheek that he planned to remain a member of HZDS.
While there are rumors that Meciar "sent" Dzupa and Kolesar
to help the coalition, none of our contacts in parliament put
any credence in them. Dzupa -- never a major player in the
party -- may simply be another HZDS member disgruntled with
Meciar's autocratic leadership of the party.

WHY KOLESAR LEFT HZDS
--------------


5. (C) COMMENT: During our interactions with Kolesar as an
IV, we found him to be a HZDS "believer" who was likely
indoctrinated by his parents (Kolesar is in his mid-30's).
He was a local organizer and youth leader for HZDS, though he
always advocated closer cooperation with the coalition at the
same time. We doubt he left HZDS "on principle," and find it
more likely that, at number 24, he felt he wasn't high enough
on the party's candidate list. By joining another party, he
may be trying to prolong his political career (and retain the
handsome salary that comes with it). Lintner and the
coalition have probably been pursuing him as a "convert" for
a while, as he wouldn't have as much political "baggage" as
other, older, HZDS MPs.


TOMORROW: PARTY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF PARLIAMENT
-------------- --------------


6. (C) COMMENT, CONT'D: Our SDKU and KDH interlocutors are
confident that the parliament will have quorum and that the
session will begin the morning of September 21; however, they
were also fairly confident last week. One of the options
being widely discussed in the press is the possible temporary
recall of Foreign Minister Eduard Kukan to parliament, where
he would "bump" former SDKU MP Jozef Hurban (who has not been
participating in the quorum counts) and help open the
session. However, we feel that such a tactic would only
emphasize what the opposition is already claiming: that
Dzurinda's coalition does not have enough support in
parliament to advance its agenda, and must resort to
manipulating the membership rather than garnering support
among independent and opposition peers. If they fail to
reach quorum on September 21, early elections become even
more likely; even if the coalition succeeds, however, this
experience has probably made early elections -- perhaps in
June 2006 -- much more likely.

VALLEE


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