RUSKO SACKED BY PRESIDENT; COALITION WEAKENED, BUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000683

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2015
TAGS: PGOV ECON ETRD PINR KDEM LO
SUBJECT: RUSKO SACKED BY PRESIDENT; COALITION WEAKENED, BUT
STILL STANDING

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 682

B. BRATISLAVA 677

C. BRATISLAVA 663

D. BRATISLAVA 626

E. BRATISLAVA 618

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4(B) and (D)
.


1. (C) President Ivan Gasparovic fired Minister of the
Economy Pavol Rusko (reftels) at noon August 24, after Rusko
failed to submit his resignation by 9:00am as demanded at a
press conference last night by Prime Minister Dzurinda.
Rusko's Alliance of New Citizen (ANO) party announced that it
would remain in the coalition, but one MP has already
defected, and the Prime Minister told the Ambassador that he
believes at least seven will depart from the troubled party
and continue to support the ruling coalition.

RUSKO AS MARTYR
--------------


2. (C) Following an afternoon meeting of the coalition
council on August 23, sources told us that the coalition had
decided that Rusko would be asked to resign by Friday, giving
the Prime Minister -- and ANO -- time to identify and agree
upon a possible replacement Minister. However, in the
evening hours following this meeting, PM Dzurinda told a
press conference there had been a transfer of SKK 1.5 billion
(around USD 48 million) in Ministry of Economy funds
(received from the EU and earmarked for small and medium
enterprise development) to one single company August 22. The
unauthorized transfer was the straw that broke the
coalition's back; Dzurinda took to the airwaves to call for
Rusko's resignation by 9:00am the next day. Dzurinda echoed
this in a meeting with the Ambassador August 24 when he said
that he had to take the step because of Rusko's "corruption."


3. (C) Rusko, as we expected, decided to try for martyr
status, preferring to be fired (and thus, be seen as the
"victim" of the coalition) rather than to resign under the
shadow of his suspected dirty business deals. After the
9:00am deadline passed, Dzurinda forwarded his request to
recall Rusko to President Gasparovic, who removed Rusko from
his ministerial post at noon. Minister of Finance Ivan
Miklos (a member of Dzurinda's SDKU party) has been placed in
temporary and concurrent control of the Ministry of Economy
until the installation of a new Minister. Rusko, still a
member of parliament, will retain his immunity from
prosecution. Miklos has already announced three initiatives
that he will undertake as caretaker Minister of Economy:
preventing suspicious financial transactions, privatizing the
Slovak Power Co., and resolving the problems surrounding the
construction of the new KIA plant in Zilina.

IN PARLIAMENT, EIGHT IS ENOUGH
--------------


4. (C) After Dzurinda's evening press conference, ANO
immediately retreated to a late-night strategy session that
we are told adjourned at 3:00am. Already plagued by the
divisive vote of the party presidium on Monday night (during
which five members -- including the two other ANO cabinet
Ministers in government -- voted for Rusko to resign),the
midnight hours brought more potential disarray to the party.
ANO MP Jozef Heriban announced that he was leaving the party,
and we are told that altogether eight of ANO's eleven MPs may
defect; this number may be crucial, as eight MPs are required
to form a "club" in Parliament, allowing the members to
operate as a pro-coalition voting block independently of ANO.

THE MEN WHO MIGHT BE MINISTERS
--------------


5. (C) ANO, under the coalition agreement, "owns" three
Ministries: Economy, Culture, and Health. However, Minister
of Culture Frantisek Toth and Minister of Health Rudolf Zajac
both voted against Rusko in the ANO presidium meeting, and
the party has thus called for their replacement as well. ANO
proposes that Vladimir Menich, currently State Secretary at
the Ministry of Transportation, be elevated to Minister of
the Economy, and has recommended that Milan Kepena, a
regional representative in the Banska Bystrica government, be
elevated to Minister of Culture, though the party has not yet
identified a possible replacement for the Zajac at the
Ministry of Health.

PRIME MINISTER TO THE AMBASSADOR: SEVEN ON MY SIDE
-------------- --------------


6. (C) However, PM Dzurinda himself has told us that he has
not yet taken action on the proposed cabinet shuffle, because
he is waiting to see whether or not ANO continues to
fragment, and, if so, if the piece of the party remaining


with Rusko is worth retaining in the coalition. During the
Ambassador's introductory call on him, Dzurinda told us that
he felt there were at least seven of the former eleven ANO
MPs already on his "side" and supporting the coalition, and
if they split from the party, he feels that he will be free
to replace the ANO cabinet Ministers with other coalition
representatives. However, he said he "needs time" to
continue discussions with those remaining close to Rusko, who
he hinted were ANO MPs Eva Cerna, Beata Brestenska, and Iveta
Henzelyova.


COMMENT: WHY THERE WON'T BE EARLY ELECTIONS
--------------


7. (C) Early elections -- which would, if called, be held
only a few months before the regularly scheduled elections
next fall -- are unlikely, and none of our contacts in either
coalition or opposition parties have expressed serious
interest in calling for early polls. Knowing this, Dzurinda
told the Ambassador that he does not consider this crisis
"serious," and is confident that the parliament will continue
to support him. For Dzurinda, having the "right" people in
the Ministries of Economy, Culture, and Health in the year
before the election is likely worth much mor than having a
three-vote ANO remain in the coalition.
VALLEE


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