MINISTER RUSKO'S WILD RIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000677

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KPAO PINR LO
SUBJECT: MINISTER RUSKO'S WILD RIDE

REF: A. BRATISLAVA 618


B. BRATISLAVA 626

C. BRATISLAVA 663

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4(B) and (D).


1. (C) Following the Christian Democratic Party (KDH)
announcement last week that it would leave the coalition if
Minister of the Economy Pavol Rusko was not removed from
office by August 23 (Ref C),Rusko's ANO party closeted
itself August 22 to determine next steps. In Bratislava, the
only thing pundits can agree on is that, by the time the
smoke clears later this week, the coalition government will
still stand, with or without ANO. Based upon our
conversations with political operatives, journalists,
analysts, and party insiders, we believe that ANO itself will
ask Rusko to step down, avoiding a "firing" by the Prime
Minister. However, as we enter the final 24 hours before the
coalition announces its decision, Rusko -- as ever -- remains
the wild card; as one contact observed in the past, "when
Rusko gets backed into a corner, he doubles his bets."

RUSKO'S PARTY WANTS HIM TO GO QUIETLY...
--------------


2. (C) Independent political analysts, as well as some ANO
party members, are suggesting that Rusko "face the music" and
step down from his ministerial post, preserving it for his
ANO party. As some speculated that Rusko would elevate ANO
MP Jirko Malcharek to replace him as Minister (while Rusko
continued to call the shots from behind the scenes),a
nervous Malcharek appeared on television today to say that he
thinks Rusko should step down. Malcharek added that several
other (unnamed) ANO leaders agree with him. Some say that
swapping Rusko for another ANO MP is the "best case scenario"
for ANO and the coalition, as replacing Rusko with an MP from
another coalition party would upset the balance of the
cabinet and could result in additional political fallout.
However, while this would appease the current situation,
Rusko's continued leadership of ANO would still cause
problems for KDH.

...BUT IT'S NOT IN RUSKO'S NATURE
--------------


3. (C) Rusko's ego, however, could still get in the way.
As one advisor to Smer leader Robert Fico told us, Rusko
remains "like a bullet; you never know which way he is going
to fire." If Rusko refuses to resign, the media reports that
Prime Minister Dzurinda would probably remove him. While
some of our interlocutors speculate that Rusko may try to
take others down with him (particularly by revealing evidence
or allegations of corruption),others note that "whipping out
the little black book" is not a popular option in Slovakia.


4. (C) The Prime Minister may seek to replace Rusko with an
independent official to avoid intra-coalition conflicts. A
popular suggestion is former ANO MP and former Minister of
the Economy Robert Nemcsics, who was forced out by Rusko
after criticizing him publicly for "party management
problems." Nemcsics, who Rusko's own former campaign manager
told us is "the only smart guy in the party," has the
experience to lead the Ministry.

AND WHAT OF ANO?
--------------


5. (C) The question as to whether ANO will implode is the
subject of much speculation, especially in the event that
Rusko goes down swinging. In many ways ANO cannot exist
without Rusko (the party's founder, leader, and financier)
and the favorable media coverage provided by Rusko's Markiza
television station. However, others suggest that an ugly
scene by Rusko could provide the party with ample reason to
split. ANO club president Lubomir Lintner and Minister of
Culture Frantisek Toth have both been rumored to be on the
outs with Rusko, and possible defectors to other parties or
the independent ranks. One source close to Minister of the
Interior Vladimir Palko said that KDH believes that Lintner
and Minister of Health Rudolf Zajac would both consider spots
with KDH, and that they hope Toth would leave ANO if it
continues under Rusko's leadership. If Prime Minister
Dzurinda were able to convince other ANO Ministers to remain
in the cabinet despite Rusko's removal, it would attest to
his finely-honed skills at keeping this coalition together
until the elections next year.
VALLEE


NNNN