BRAZIL: BOLIVIA ELECTION DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRASILIA 003285

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015
TAGS: PREL BR
SUBJECT: BRAZIL: BOLIVIA ELECTION DEVELOPMENTS

REF: LA PAZ 3687

Classified By: Political Counselor Dennis Hearne. Reasons:1.4(B)(D).


1. (SBU) PolCouns spoke with senior Brazilian Government
(GOB) contacts in the foreign ministry (MRE) and Presidency
on 15 December to check on the GOB's preparations for the 18
December election in Bolivia. They noted the following:


2. (SBU) Marcel Biato, deputy foreign affairs advisor to
President Lula da Silva, told PolCouns that Marco Aurelio
Garcia, Lula's senior international advisor and designated
Bolivia envoy, will travel on Saturday to Bolivia and link up
with Carlos "Chaco" Alvarez, a former vice president of
Argentina and Mercosul's senior political representative.
Biato said Garcia and Alvarez, along with their advisors,
will not act as observers per se, but rather will be in
Bolivia as a "high-level presence" to show regional support
for the democratic process. They plan to meet with the three
presidential candidates and other key leaders, Biato said.


3. (SBU) The MRE's Acting Andean division chief, Lauro
Beltrao, told PolCouns that Mercosul has also organized a
regular election observer mission of working level personnel,
including Brazilian officials, who should begin arriving in
Bolivia on 16 December. He added the Mercosul mission was in
part a response to the November "open letter" from the
Bolivian Government seeking observers, and the details of the
Mercosul mission had been finalized by FM Amorim in
conversations with Bolivia's foreign minister.


4. (C) Comment. Biato and Beltrao both affirmed the GOB's
paramount concern that the election process needs to be seen
among Bolivians as transparent and legitimate. They said the
GOB, like other observers, anticipates a best-case scenario
in which there is a "gentleman's agreement" wherein the
second-place candidate will defer to the front-runner if the
margin of victory is clear. A more troubling scenario, in
the GOB's view, would be a murky electoral result that leads
to the president-elect being designated by the legislature,
exacerbating the polarization among the populace. In an
earlier meeting on 8 December during the Brasilia visit of
WHA Special Advisor for Counter Terrorism and Border Security
McCarthy, PolCouns ask Antonio Macedo Soares, a senior
analyst in the Presidency's Institutional Security Cabinet
(GSI),whether the GSI is planning for possible second-order
effects if the Bolivia political situation deteriorates into
instability or radicalization that threatens Brazilian
interests, especially Petrobras and energy resources from
Bolivia that are critical to industry in southern Brazil.
(Note: The GSI is a combination crisis management and
national security and intelligence coordination entity within
the Brazilian presidency. End note.) Macedo Soares
acknowledged that the GSI has been assessing likely impacts
from energy shortfalls, but would not be drawn into a
detailed discussion. Rather, he admitted candidly that the
GOB is essentially banking on "a strategy of hope," i.e.,
that despite fiery nationalist rhetoric during the elections,
sensible leaders in Bolivia will not allow radical new
government policies or general instability to damage
Brazilian energy industries which contribute so massively to
Bolivia's economy. Per remarks of Brazil's Ambassador in La
Paz noted in reftel, Macedo Soares also expressed deep
concern within Brazil's police and intelligence communities
about the potential for increased cocaine flows into Brazil
from Bolivia in the event of a Morales victory.

CHICOLA