COLOMBIA: JULY 2005 GALLUP POLL RESULTS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 006889

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KMDR KPAO OPRC PREL SNAR PGOV CO
SUBJECT: COLOMBIA: JULY 2005 GALLUP POLL RESULTS

Security Policies
--------------


1. (U) The survey found that 71% of respondents feel
safer today than they did a year ago, up seven percent
(64%) from April 2005. Those disagreeing with the
statement decreased from 31% in April to 26% in July.
As such, a little over a third of Colombians (36%)
feel that public order/security is the country's top
problem. As security conditions improve, the public's
willingness to forego some liberties to improve
security decreased, from 63% in December 2004 to 55%
in July. The large majority (73%) believes that the
Government is respectful of human rights; 19%

Peace Process
--------------


2. (U) Public support for the Government's
negotiations with paramilitary groups remains strong -
73% in favor, and 23% against. Support for
reinsertion programs for former members of guerrilla/
paramilitary groups has declined from 65% in April to
56% in July. Public support for humanitarian
exchanges between guerrillas and hostages also
continues to decline, from 47% in favor in December
2004, to 36% in July 2005.

Economic Management
--------------


3. (U) With security conditions improving in the cities
where the poll was taken, respondents identified the economy
as the main problem facing Colombia (46%). Sixty-percent
disapproved of the president's handling of cost of
living issues (36% approved),and 59% disapproved of
his unemployment policies (36% approved). On an FTA
with the United States, support decreased from 60% in
June 2004 to 52% in July 2005.

Extradition
--------------


4. (U) Support for extradition, at 44% in July, is
down three points from March.

Aerial Spraying
--------------


5. (U) For the first time, opposition to aerial
spraying surpassed approval, 50% to 47%. Support for
aerial spraying has lost 6% points since December

2004.

Elections/Candidates
--------------


6. (U) Support for President Uribe's reelection
remained strong at 66%. Favorable ratings for other
potential presidential candidates were as follows:

- Colombia's ambassador to Spain, Noemi Sanin: 54%
- Bogota Mayor Luis E. Garzon: 54%
- Former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus 51%
- Former Bogota Mayor Enrique Penalosa: 46%
- Polo Democratico candidate Senator Antonio
Navarro Wolf: 37%
- Vice-President Santos: 38%
- Former President Cesar Gaviria: 35%
- Minister of Interior Sabas Pretelt: 32%.
- Liberal Party hopeful Horacio Serpa: 30%

Seventy percent of respondents considered themselves
political independents, 19% Liberals, and 6%
Conservatives.

Institutions
--------------


7. (U) Among institutions, the Armed Forces enjoyed
the highest favorable image, at 80%. Plan Colombia
and the Police, at 70% and 69% respectively, were in
the top five. The United Nations has a 67% favorable
rating, and Human Rights NGOs come in next at 66%.
With regards to Venezuela, 37% have a favorable
opinion, while 50% have a negative opinion. When
asked if the relationship with Venezuela could be
described as respectful and prosperous, those agreeing
with that statement have been decreasing steadily from
65% in March, 61% in April, to a low of 47% in July.
Hugo Chavez received 16% favorable ratings and 49%
unfavorable.



8. (U) The opinion poll was conducted by telephone in
the four largest metropolitan areas July 5-6. It overweighted
poorer respondents and represents a good profile of the more
politically relevant or influential populat