Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BOGOTA4571
2005-05-16 18:55:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:  

SERPA ON LIBERAL PARTY DYNAMICS AND UPCOMING

Tags:  PGOV PINR CO 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004571 

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: SERPA ON LIBERAL PARTY DYNAMICS AND UPCOMING
PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: BOGOTA 2216

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 004571

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: SERPA ON LIBERAL PARTY DYNAMICS AND UPCOMING
PRESIDENTIAL RACE

REF: BOGOTA 2216

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: Poloff met with two-time presidential
candidate Horacio Serpa on May 11. Serpa is resisting the
move by former President Cesar Gaviria to take over the
Liberal Party (PLC),believing the party would need to form a
center-left alliance to effectively challenge President Uribe
in the May 2006 presidential election. He said opposition
parties would not face a level playing field in challenging
Uribe in the elections, but stopped short of endorsing the
call by some PLC members to not run a candidate against
Uribe. Serpa criticized Uribe for a singular focus on public
security at the expense of socioeconomic issues. End Summary.


2. (C) On May 11, poloff met with Horacio Serpa, the Liberal
Party's 1998 and 2002 presidential candidate and immediate
past GOC ambassador to the OAS. Regarding the upcoming PLC
national convention in early June, Serpa continued to express
reservations over a potential single party head in the person
of former President and OAS SyG Cesar Gaviria. Serpa argued
that the current PLC leadership scheme, a ten-member
executive council with a rotating presidency, is more
inclusive of PLC members, and allows greater participation by
women, young adults, and Afro-Colombians. He also said a
Gaviria party presidency would be dictatorial in nature and a
step back from the PLC's recent campaign for greater openness
and pluralism in the party.


3. (C) Serpa stated his belief that former Bogota mayor
Enrique Penalosa and Senators Rafael Pardo and Rodrigo Rivera
would enter the PLC's presidential nominee primary, ideally
to take place in March 2006 on the same Sunday as
Congressional elections (reftel). Serpa refused to confirm
his own intentions regarding the primary. He did, however,
stress that he had been talking to leaders of the major
parties on the left -- the Democratic Pole (PDI) and
Democratic Alternative (AD) -- about running a coalition
left/center-left candidate against Uribe. Serpa admitted
that Gaviria, Penalosa, Pardo, and Rivera, however, were all
strongly in favor of a go-alone PLC candidate.


4. (C) Serpa lamented the state of play of reelection
implementing legislation in the Congress and the impasse over
associated draft rules (known locally as "garantias") for
creating a level playing field for candidates competing in
the upcoming presidential race. He criticized the GOC for
treating the PLC and other left and center-left parties with
disdain. He noted the proposal by some PLC members not to
field a candidate against Uribe in the absence of a fair
playing field, but stopped short of endorsing it -- for the
time being.


5. (C) Serpa recognized public security advances under Uribe
but lamented the lack of attention to social issues. He
noted the critical state of the public education and public
health systems. With regard to fighting the FARC, Serpa
stated that much-touted military successes were exaggerated
to enhance prospects for Uribe's reelection. He referred to
recent FARC offenses -- most notably the siege of Toribio --
as evidence that the FARC threat is still alive and well.


6. (C) Comment: Serpa's comments aside, the vast majority
of our Liberal Party contacts concur that the Gaviria PLC
presidency is a done deal. A PLC-PDI-AD alliance for 2006 is
unlikely, as the PDI and AD would resist Serpa as
standard-bearer, and neither the PDI nor AD have a strong
potential candidate. While the debate over campaign rules of
the game continues, the PLC as a collective is not likely to
sit out the 2006 contest. Serpa's own prospects for being
the PLC nominee would be greatly strengthened were the
Constitutional Court to rule that Uribe could not run.
WOOD