DECLINING OFFICIALIST LIBERAL PARTY LIKELY TO PIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 003842

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR CO
SUBJECT: DECLINING OFFICIALIST LIBERAL PARTY LIKELY TO PIN
FUTURE ON CESAR GAVIRIA

REF: A. BOGOTA 2216


B. 04 BOGOTA 11705

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) Summary: The Officialist Liberal Party (PLC),
Colombia's largest and oldest, has been declining nationally.
Several dozen Congressional "dissident" Liberals are set to
leave the party and formalize a new political movement,
likely to be called Apertura Liberal (Liberal Opening),which
plans to run its own list of candidates for Congress and
support President Uribe for reelection in 2006. Former VP
and Finance Minister Juan Manuel Santos, a disaffected
Liberal leader, accepted a role as President Uribe's point
man on reelection. The majority of party members, including
the current PLC President Juan Cristo, believe that the only
way to reinvigorate the PLC is to make former President Cesar
Gaviria its unifying leader at the June party convention.
After receiving the public backing of several dozen PLC
members of Congress, Gaviria broke his silence on April 12
and indicated a desire to run the party. While Gaviria and
former President Alfonso Lopez have publicly opposed Uribe's
reelection, the President continues to be the unchallenged
front-runner for 2006. Provided reelection is not struck
down by the Constitutional Court, the PLC has little chance
of defeating Uribe. End Summary.

PLC's Evolving Numbers
--------------


2. (U) Colombia's oldest party, the Officialist Liberal
(PLC),controls the largest number of governorships and
departmental assemblies (roughly half of each). At the start
of the current Congress in 2002 it held 29 (of 102) Senate
seats and 49 (of 166) House seats. However, a move to
sanction nine Senators in November (Ref B) reduced PLC Senate
representation to 20. Soon-to-be-completed negotiations to
form a new dissident Liberal umbrella party for the 2006
elections will reduce the PLC numbers to 11 in the Senate and
approximately 20 in the House. The new party, tentatively
called Apertura Liberal (AL),plans to support President
Uribe (himself a former PLC member) for reelection and run
unified lists for Congress.

Convention and Presidential Nominee
--------------


3. (SBU) The PLC is laying the groundwork for its national
convention to be held in June. Items for the convention
include selection of a new PLC head, development of a formal
platform, and ground rules for Congressional candidate
selection and the party's presidential primary. At present,
a ten-person Executive Committee runs the PLC, with a
rotating (six month term) presidency. Leading PLC contacts,
including current head and Senator Juan Fernando Cristo,
favor abolition of the Executive Committee and establishment
of a single party leader post. The PLC's nationwide
presidential primary is likely to take place in March 2006,
and potential candidates include 2002 nominee Horacio Serpa,
former Bogota Mayor Enrique Penalosa, and Senators Rafael
Pardo and Rodrigo Rivera (Ref A). However, senior party
officials tell us that Serpa will not enter the race if
reelection is ruled constitutional, and Uribe can run.

The ex-Presidents
--------------


4. (C) Four of the five living ex-Presidents are PLC
members. Of the four PLC, only Julio Cesar Turbay has been
publicly supportive of reelection for President Uribe. In
late March, Alfonso Lopez Michelson, the elder statesman of
the group, surprised many observers with a strong public
stance against Uribe's reelection. However, many pundits
wrote off the octogenarian Lopez's remarks, published in an
interview in leading daily El Tiempo, as rambling and
mean-spirited. Ernesto Samper, generally viewed with disdain
by the public for his narco-financing scandal, has also
criticized reelection.


5. (C) Early in the Uribe Administration, then-OAS SYG Cesar
Gaviria showed signs of affinity and cooperation with the
President. However, in recent months Gaviria has become more
critical, staking out a position against reelection and in
favor of the 1991 Constitution. Pundits have attributed the
change to three factors. First, President Uribe spoke
negatively about the role of political parties when
addressing an OAS-sponsored forum on strengthening parties in
Cartagena in November 2003 (Gaviria presided over the forum).
Subsequently, in a speech in Miami in late 2004, Uribe
criticized the M-19 guerrilla amnesty, which occurred under
Gaviria's watch. Third, Uribe launched a series of
criticisms of Colombia's 1991 Constitution, the crown jewel
of the Gaviria Presidency.


6. (C) In a recent conversation with PolCouns, Gaviria spoke
highly of Uribe and insisted that he remains in constant
touch with Casa Narino (the Presidential Palace). Defending
the 1991 Constitution, he said he was opposed in principle to
reelection but assumed it would pass the Constitutional
Court. He underscored that Uribe had to be "generous" with
pending reelection implementing legislation. The
Constitutional Court had to be convinced that others would
not be disadvantaged or that it did not create a system
stacked in Uribe's favor.


7. (C) However, Gaviria was critical of Uribe's style of
government, noting the Administration's lack of depth, with
few key advisors. The idea that one man (i.e. Peace
Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo) was conducting the entire
peace process was "unbelievable." Gaviria also charged that
Uribe has damaged political parties in Colombia. We will end
up like Venezuela if he is not careful, said Gaviria.


8. (U) On April 11, several dozen PLC members of Congress
openly announced their support for Gaviria as sole party head
(and for abolishing the Executive Committee and rotating
presidency). Gaviria broke his silence the following day and
expressed interest in the post. In a radio interview,
Gaviria disassociated himself from the "neoliberal" label,
called for the PLC to back a "Colombian version of social
democracy," and strongly defended the 1991 Constitution.
While Horacio Serpa, the PLC's 2002 presidential candidate,
called for a "democratic" party leader selection process and
noted his ideological (Serpa leans farther left) differences
with Gaviria, former Prosecutor General Alfonso Gomez Mendez,
a prominent Serpa backer, announced he was open to the
Gaviria option. Ernesto Samper, in a April 17 interview in
El Tiempo, welcomed a Gaviria PLC presidency provided the
party rank and file vote in such a fashion. However, Samper
said he would stand with Serpa if the latter continued to
resist Gaviria as PLC head.

Juan Manuel Santos Steps Back Into Political Spotlight
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Leading Liberal figure Juan Manuel Santos, Vice
President under Gaviria and Finance Minister under Andres
Pastrana (a Conservative),recently defected from the PLC.
In a conversation with Embassy on April 7, Santos attributed
his move to two factors. First, he lamented polarization
within the PLC and the radicalization of its platform. He
criticized the PLC for allowing leftist elements (led by
Senator Piedad Cordoba) to dominate internal debate. A
strong proponent of free trade and market opening, Santos
felt he no longer fit in the PLC. Second, Santos welcomed
the formation of Apertura Liberal, whose members included
most of Santos' political allies and former colleagues, and
embraced its stated purpose of supporting the reelection of
President Uribe. Santos recently accepted a role as
coordinator of Uribe's reelection efforts.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) While the PLC remains strong in certain regions of
the country, in particular the Atlantic Coast, its national
strength has diminished. In the Congress, its most centrist
and charismatic figures appear set to defect to the Apertura
Liberal movement, leaving the PLC with less than half of its
2002 nominal representation in both houses of Congress.
Serpa's complaints to the contrary, Gaviria is likely to take
over the party in June, a move in the direction of internal
cohesion. It remains to be seen, however, if Gaviria alone
can bring the PLC back to national prominence. If reelection
stands, the PLC on its own cannot challenge President Uribe
in 2006. Were the election to go to a runoff (required by
law if no candidate attains a majority in the first round),a
potential alliance between the PLC and leftist parties in a
second round would still face an uphill battle against the
popular incumbent.
WOOD