TWO MAJOR LEFT PARTIES LIKELY TO FORM ELECTORAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 002217

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV CO
SUBJECT: TWO MAJOR LEFT PARTIES LIKELY TO FORM ELECTORAL
ALLIANCE FOR 2006

REF: BOGOTA 1696

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. Reasons: 1.4 B & D.


1. (C) In recent meetings with poloffs, Senators Samuel
Moreno and Carlos Gaviria, heads of leftist parties
Independent Democratic Pole (PDI) and Democratic Alternative
(AD, Alternativa Democratica),respectively, confirmed the
conclusion of negotiations to form an electoral alliance for
2006 Congressional and Presidential elections. According to
Moreno, PDI member and Bogota Mayor "Lucho" Garzon is not
considering stepping down to compete for the alliance's
presidential nomination. The PDI's three declared contenders
are Moreno, Senator Antonio Navarro Wolff (a former M-19
guerrilla),and former Tolima Governor Guillermo Jaramillo.
Gaviria is AD's only declared candidate. PDI plans to hold
an internal election (likely an assembly) to select its
candidate in early summer. From there, according to both
Moreno and Gaviria, the alliance would hold a nationwide
primary to select the nominee. In a meeting with poloffs on
February 23, Gaviria said the eventual alliance presidential
candidate would likely be Navarro or Moreno.


2. (C) Comment: While the PDI holds the Bogota and Cali
mayorships and the Valle del Cauca governorship, it cannot
yet compete for the Presidency on a national scale. AD's
electoral strength remains inferior to the PDI's. Garzon,
the PDI's most charismatic and popular member, continues to
insist he will sit out the 2006 presidential contest and
focus on 2010. (Note: If Garzon were to run in 2006, he
would need to step down by May 14 of this year.) The PDI-AD
alliance would not be able to challenge President Uribe in a
hypothetical 2006 matchup. Unknown at present, however, is
the potential role the anti-Uribe Officialist Liberal Party
might play.
WOOD