Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BOGOTA11926
2005-12-27 19:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bogota
Cable title:  

GOC-ELN TALKS: CIVIL SOCIETY GUARANTOR PROVIDES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER CO ELN 
pdf how-to read a cable
This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BOGOTA 011926 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2105
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER CO ELN ELN
SUBJECT: GOC-ELN TALKS: CIVIL SOCIETY GUARANTOR PROVIDES
READOUT

REF: A. BOGOTA 11862

B. BOGOTA 11611

C. BOGOTA 11461

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

-------
Summary
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BOGOTA 011926

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2105
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER CO ELN ELN
SUBJECT: GOC-ELN TALKS: CIVIL SOCIETY GUARANTOR PROVIDES
READOUT

REF: A. BOGOTA 11862

B. BOGOTA 11611

C. BOGOTA 11461

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) One of the five civil society guarantors for the
GOC-ELN talks, Moritz Akerman, said December 26 the ELN
wanted to end its insurgency and run candidates for mayoral
offices in 2007. The ELN would like to participate in the
2006 Congressional and presidential polls but only by
"consulting" with candidates on policy issues. It is
prepared to enter into a cease-fire by March and would be
prepared to disarm prior to running candidates in 2007. In
Akerman's view, the ELN has not given much thought to the
terms of its "punishment" for its criminal activity. The ELN
seemed more organized than the GOC in Havana and was prepared
to move to substantive discussions, but the GOC was more
cautious. Akerman said the GOC prefers to deal directly with
the ELN and avoid the role of mediators. The guarantors are
divided, with two of them serving as "the ELN's Foreign
Ministry," Akerman said. According to Akerman, the ELN
expects the FARC to attack its leadership, in part to extract
revenge for a recent ELN killing of a regional FARC leader,
and in part to warn the ELN not to proceed too far down the
negotiating path with the GOC. The talks resume on or about
January 21 in Havana. End summary.

--------------
What Does the ELN Want?
--------------


2. (C) Akerman told D/Polcouns December 26 the ELN wants to
get involved in political activity as soon as possible, and
would like to run candidates for election in 2007 mayoral
races. Akerman understands that ELN military commander
Antonio Garcia wants to be able to "consult" openly on policy
issues with leftist candidates for Congress and the
presidency in 2006. According to Akerman, the ELN is
prepared to agree to a cease-fire, perhaps as early as March.
Akerman said the ELN is concerned about not being
"humiliated" and would be more likely to accept a cease-fire
if it could be presented as a demand of civil society rather

than as a GOC negotiating term. The ELN is prepared to
disarm before it runs candidates for election in 2007, he
said. In Akerman's view, the ELN has not considered the
price it is willing to pay for being allowed to get involved
in democratic politics. He said the ELN would be unlikely to
accept "Justice and Peace law" terms and would press for
amnesty and pardon. Akerman reported that former President
Cesar Gaviria is talking directly with ELN spokesperson and
negotiator Francisco Galan.

--------------
Antonio Garcia and Luis Carlos Restrepo
--------------


3. (C) Akerman said Garcia was "flexible" and "measured" in
Havana, a significant contrast to previous occasions Akerman
has seen him, where Garcia was "arrogant" and "stubborn."
Akerman said Garcia seemed very concerned with preserving the
dialogue with the GOC. At one point, Garcia grew frustrated
with Restrepo's apparently narrow negotiating room and said
he would leave Cuba and let Restrepo negotiate with Galan,
referring any agreements to Garcia and Uribe for approval,
but later backed down. Garcia said, however, that he hoped
Restrepo would be in a stronger negotiating position when
talks resumed.


4. (C) Akerman said the guarantors and "accompanying
countries" (Spain, Norway and Switzerland) worked hard to
build a positive relationship between Garcia and Restrepo in
the days preceding the December 16 formal inauguration of the
talks (ref C). Garcia and Restrepo met alone several times
for 30 minute coffees in the morning, and later met, together
with their associates, in a protocol house the Cubans
provided to the Government of Colombia.

-------------- --------------
Guarantors, Group of Three Countries Marginalized
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Akerman reported that the guarantors and
representatives from Spain, Norway and Switzerland were
"marginalized" during the talks, primarily because the GOC
wanted to deal directly with the ELN. According to Akerman,
GOC Ambassador to Cuba, Fernando Londono, disagrees with the
apparent decision to keep the guarantors away from the formal
talks but said, referring to Restrepo, "he's in charge, not
me." Akerman did not complain about the "marginalization"
but said if the talks continue there would likely be a need
for some kind of mediation assistance, whether from the
guarantors, the group of three countries, or some other
source. Akerman said Spain was more inclined to follow the
GOC lead, whereas Norway and Switzerland would prefer to play
a more active role.

--------------
Talks Cordial, ELN Seemed More Organized
--------------


6. (C) Akerman said the guarantors and representatives from
Spain, Norway and Switzerland were not present during the
formal talks but met regularly with the participants before
and after the sessions; based on those side meetings, Akerman
characterized the formal talks as cordial. He said "people
just talked and talked," which he said was a positive
development. At the conclusion of the talks December 21, the
ELN presented the GOC with a draft communique that said the
exploratory phase had been successful and the talks would now
move to the "pre-negotiation" phase late January. According
to Akerman, the GOC rejected the text and said it wanted to
continue with "exploratory" talks when discussions resumed.
(Akerman said he expects to get the ELN text from Galan and
will provide it to the Embassy.) In Akerman's view, the ELN
seemed more organized than the GOC, in that it was prepared
to move forward with concrete proposals. By contrast, the
GOC was somewhat surprised by the ELN's approach and needed
more time to analyze its next move. Akerman said the GOC
might be concerned that moving to substantive ELN peace talks
in the middle of 2006 Congressional and presidential
electoral campaigns would be too risky. He said if the talks
failed, the GOC could be accused of failing to seize an
opportunity, whereas if they succeeded the GOC could be faced
with more loud and articulate leftist voices in the middle of
the campaigns.

--------------
Talks Resume in Havana Late January
--------------


7. (C) Akerman said the talks are expected to resume in
Havana around January 21. The GOC and ELN seemed satisfied
with the Havana venue, the former because Castro stays out of
developments and allows the GOC to control matters, the
latter because its members are not subject to being arrested,
as they could be if the talks took place in Europe. In
Akerman's view, the talks should be moved from Cuba because
of the "stifling" political atmosphere on the island. The
ELN would benefit from being exposed to a "normal" democratic
environment.

-------------- --------------
Cubans Unpleasant, Akerman Says, but Garcia Marquez Helpful
-------------- --------------


8. (C) Akerman characterized the Cuban Communist Party
officials who met the guarantors at the Havana airport as
unpleasant and brusque. He said they told the guarantors
upon their arrival, "Welcome to Cuba. If any of you or any
representative from an 'accompanying country' meets with even
one dissident while you are here, this entire process will be
called off and you will all be sent home." He said such
officials continued with similar "rude" comments from time to
time.


9. (C) By contrast, Akerman said Colombian novelist and
Fidel Castro friend Gabriel Garcia Marquez, who maintains a
residence in Havana, was helpful during the talks. Garcia
Marquez apparently has developed a close relationship with
ELN military commander Garcia, to the extent of organizing
and paying for Garcia's operation in Cuba on three herniated
discs about seven years ago and serving as a sounding board
for Garcia's poetry efforts. (Akerman said Garcia Marquez
insisted several times that Akerman join him in Cuba, for at
least part of the year. Garcia Marquez told Akerman that he
was "alone" in Havana and that Castro "was always too busy to
see me.")

--------------
Guarantors Divided
--------------


10. (C) In the face of Cuban hostility, Akerman said the
guarantors were divided. He characterized two of the five
guarantors (Alejo Vargas and Daniel Garcia-Pena) as
"basically the ELN's Foreign Ministry." In Akerman's view,
such divisions can be managed at the moment but could become
more significant as the process unfolds.

--------------
FARC Attack on ELN Expected
--------------


11. (C) Akerman said the ELN is expecting a FARC attack in
the Catatumbo region, the site of the ELN's leadership. He
said the attack would be related in part to the recent ELN
killing of Arauca FARC leader "El Che" (ref A) and in part to
send a signal to the ELN that its talks with the GOC should
not progress much further.

--------------
Comment
--------------


12. (C) We will continue to support the ELN process. It is
understandable that, after the ELN walked away from the last
three peace attempts, the GOC is wary, especially of being
entrapped at election time. Restrepo has told us he is
dubious about ELN intentions, but willing to move forward.
That the ELN is in a hurry, refuses to accept the Justice and
Peace Law, and wants to "consult" with candidates in next
year's elections creates a very difficult dynamic, at a time
when a lot of other things are going on. We can expect civil
society guarantors and the three European facilitators to
push for rapid GOC movement, whether merited by ELN positions
or not. In addition, any concessions given to the ELN will
have to be given to the paramilitaries. Stay tuned.
WOOD