GUARANTORS BRIEF AMBASSADOR ON GOC-ELN TALKS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BOGOTA 011459

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2105
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER CO ELN ELN
SUBJECT: GUARANTORS BRIEF AMBASSADOR ON GOC-ELN TALKS IN
CUBA; MODERATE OPTIMISM BUT NO FALSE ILLUSIONS

REF: BOGOTA XXX

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood
Reason: 1.4 (b,d)

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Summary
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1. (C) The five "Casa de Paz" initiative guarantors told the
Ambassador December 9 they are moderately optimistic about
the upcoming GOC-ELN talks in Cuba but have no false
illusions. The ELN pushed for December talks when the
guarantors would have preferred to wait until late January to
prepare an agenda and define modalities; the guarantors
therefore want to manage expectations in Havava (especially
on the ELN side) and ensure the talks continue in 2006,
preferably in Europe. The Ambassador said the U.S. would
support a legitimate peace process but would not talk
directly to terrorists. The U.S. has been frustrated in the
past by ELN spoiling tactics in peace talks. In respose to
the Ambassador's question about the ELN's true independence
from the FARC, the guarantors said ELN and FARC forces had
clashed increasingly in the past 10 months, and the
guarantors perceive the ELN's decision to talk with the GOC
as demonstrating a certain degree of independence. End
summary.

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The Havana Talks
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2. (C) The five "Casa de Paz" initiative guarantors (Moritz
Akerman, Daniel Garcia-Pena, Alvaro Jimenez, Gustavo Ruiz,
and Alejo Vargas) briefed Ambassador Wood December 9 on their
upcoming trip to Cuba to help organize the first direct
GOC-ELN talks in over a decade. The guarantors plan to leave
for Havana over the weekend. Garcia-Pena said they expect to
make preparatory arrangements on an agenda and modalities
December 12-15 in Havana with the GOC, ELN, and
representatives from Spain, Norway, and Switzerland. The
Cubans would only host the talks and would not facilitate.
GOC Peace Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo is expected to
arrive December 14. Military commander Antonio Garcia will
be the ELN's chief representative. The formal proceedings
start December 16, and direct GOC-ELN meetings are planned
during December 17-22.


3. (C) Garcia-Pena said the guarantors would have preferred
a late January date to give them time to agree on an agenda
and methods of conducting the talks, but the ELN insisted on
meeting in December in Cuba (in part, he suggested, so that
the ELN could "repay a debt" to the Cubans for previous
support). The guarantors will discuss with representatives
from Spain, Norway, and Switzerland the roles they could most
appropriately play, but plan to suggest a watching brief
("ambientar") rather than a facilitation. Spain is prepared
to accept this kind of role. Norway and Switzerland are
pressing for more active participation.


4. (C) The Ambassador noted that we were trying hard not to
criticize the Havana venue, even though the Cubans had played
at best an ambiguous role in the past and had undermined the
Mexican peace effort. But he urged that any follow-on talks
move from place to place, so that there is no "Havana
process" consultations.

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Expectations, Personalities Key
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5. (C) Akerman (echoed by others) said the guarantors would
try to keep expectations for the Havana talks realistic. The
guarantors are moderately optimistic but have no false
illusions, he said. They would focus on defining an agenda
and next steps, aiming to prevent a breakdown in talks in
Cuba because ground had not been sufficiently prepared in
advance or because of the clash of strong personalities
(mentioning Restrepo and Garcia, in particular, as risking an
"encuentro de vanidades"). Akerman said the guarantors would
try to prepare the ground December 12-15 to avoid a set-piece
recitation of grievances on December 16 that would get the
talks off to a poor start. The guarantors recognize that
Uribe has made significant concessions to get the talks
started (establishing the "peace house" near Medellin;
releasing the ELN's Francisco Galan from jail to attend the
peace house; allowing civil society to interact with him; and
permitting international involvement).


6. (C) According to Akerman, the guarantors prefer that
subsequent GOC-ELN sessions take place in Europe ("more
modern") rather than in Cuba, which represents the past.
Future locations are undecided, he said, but Norway and
Switzerland have offered themselves as hosts. Norway has
assigned responsibility for following developments to its
vice foreign minister (who will not be in Havana, however).

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Ambassador Offers Support for Genuine Peace Talks
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7. (C) The Ambassador said the U.S. supported legitimate
peace talks but would not under any circumstances talk
directly to terrorists. If the ELN's motivation were
revealed to be tactical rather than genuine, the U.S. would
support the GOC if it decided to pull the plug on talks. The
U.S. has in the past been frustrated with the ELN's spoiling
tactics (for example, breaking off talks with the Mexican
facilitators earlier in 2005). The Ambassador questioned
whether the ELN could deliver all its members in a peace deal
even if it wanted to, as the organization was less centrally
controlled than ever before. He said the ELN was facing 4
more years of Uribe and may be calculating that it is better
to deal with the GOC from a position of relative strength
rather than wait a few years and continue to deteriorate. As
a result of past ELN behavior, the Ambassador said he was
somewhat less optimistic than the guarantors that the process
would succeed.

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ELN-FARC Relationship Unclear
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8. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question about the
relationship between the ELN and the FARC, Jimenez said the
groups continue joint operations in some areas, but the past
10 months have witnessed significant armed confrontations,
especially in Arauca, Antioquia, and Narino Departments
(Vargas said the FARC has killed more ELN members than the
GOC). Garcia-Pena said the ELN's decision to meet with the
GOC in direct talks suggested a real degree of independence.
As a result of the deterioration in ELN-FARC relations,
however, he said it would be difficult to persuade the ELN to
agree to a ceasefire if, by doing so, it exposed its members
to further FARC attacks. The Ambassador said a GOC-ELN peace
deal would signal a significant political and diplomatic
setback for the FARC and he therefore expected the FARC to
pressure the ELN every day to reject a deal with the GOC.

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Electoral Considerations
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9. (C) The Ambassador said the ELN should not be allowed to
participate in electoral politics (in 2006 or at any other
time) unless it renounced violence, released hostages, and
committed to the democratic process. The guarantors agreed,
saying that during the civil society "peace house"
consultations the legal, democratic left had made it clear to
the ELN that peaceful politics was the only way forward for
the left. Garcia-Pena said the ELN was encouraged by Latin
American leftist developments (in particular, Lula in Brazil
and Chavez in Venezuela) and considered political space in
Colombia more open than before. According to Garcia-Pena,
ELN direct participation in the 2006 campaigns is less likely
than its participation in the 2007 regional elections. The
Ambassador cautioned that while Uribe does not need the ELN
talks to boost his popularity (it is already very high),he
would have to react to negative GOC-ELN developments so that
he did not lose support during the campaign.
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Talks Build on Talks
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10. (C) Jimenez conceded that the Havana talks would be
improvised due to the short lead time, but insisted that
previous GOC-ELN exchanges have established a general
consensus on next steps. He said a first phase of
substantive talks would likely focus on matters such as a
ceasefire and hostage exchange, while a second phase would
discuss broader socio-political subjects, including the
possibility of a national convention at which democratic
reforms would be considered. According to Jimenez, the GOC
has in the past accepted in principle the utility of such a
national convention in the right circumstances.

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Justice and Peace, Narcotrafficking
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11. (C) The Ambassador said the ELN should not get a more
advantageous deal from the GOC than the paramilitaries
received through the Justice and Peace law; the touchstone
for "deals" for terrorists should be the same: jail time for
those who have committed gross human rights violations or who
ordered others to commit such violations. If the ELN
received a better deal, he said, the GOC would be obligated
to offer the same terms to the paramilitaries. Ruiz (echoed
by Akerman) said the international legal environment relating
to pardons and amnesties had changed significantly in recent
years, such that governments had much less "amnesty" wiggle
room and faced stricter legal conditions. It is far from
clear that the ELN understands this, he said. Garcia-Pena
said the ELN lacks a clear political objective and badly
needs perspective. The Ambassador said the guarantors and
the ELN should understand that if the facts demonstrated the
ELN's involvement in drug trafficking then U.S. extradition
requests could follow, potentially complicating the process.
WOOD