ONDCP DIRECTOR WALTERS MEETS WITH PRESIDENT URIBE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BOGOTA 011044

SIPDIS

ONDCP FOR WALTERS, WARD, O'CONNOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL SNAR CO
SUBJECT: ONDCP DIRECTOR WALTERS MEETS WITH PRESIDENT URIBE


Classified By: Charge Milton K. Drucker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary. During a two-hour meeting with President
Uribe on November 9, ONDCP Director John Walters praised GOC
efforts to reduce the supply of cocaine and reviewed ONDCP
statistics reflecting U.S. consumption, Colombian cultivation
(vs spray levels) and potential production, and Andean
potential production and export quality. Walters stressed
that the GOC was showing narco-traffickers it was possible to
defeat the beast of terror and drugs, remain strong, and
promote democracy and human rights. In addition, his office
would be releasing a report soon on the availability, purity
and cost of cocaine on the U.S. market. Walters underscored
that the market had compressed and the prices and purity
changes were significant. Nonetheless, he warned that the
GOC and USG had to be vigilant in preventing
narco-traffickers from reconstituting production facilities
elsewhere, preventing new markets to emerge. Finally,
Walters pressed Uribe to re-double efforts to target the
financial resources of the narco-traffickers, to complement
eradication and interdiction in a comprehensive counter-drug
strategy. Uribe was encouraged by the new statistics, noting
that many (including those opposed to aerial straying and
extraditions) were predicting poor results in year-end coca
hectarage figures. He raised concerns about reports of coca
cultivation in Ecuador and requested U.S. assistance to
determine the scope of the problem. Reacting to recent local
press reports that Colombia was losing the war on drugs,
Uribe underscored the need to show the public that partial
goals had already been met and urged ONDCP to publish its new
findings soon. Regarding spraying in the national parks,
Minister of the Interior and Justice Sabas Pretelt said he
was waiting for a police assessment on whether manual
eradication could do the job. Uribe said if their conclusion
were that it could not, the GOC would authorize spraying. End
Summary.


2. (C) On November 9, ONDCP Director John Walters met
withPresident Uribe for two hours at the presidential palace.
Uribe was accompanied by Foreign Affairs Minister Carolina
Barco, Defense Minister Camilo Ospina, General Jorge Baron
(from the Colombian National Police),and Social Solidarity
Network Head Luis Alfonso Hoyos. Minister of Interior and
Justice Sabas Pretelt arrived half way through the
discussion. Director Walters was accompanied by Ambassador
Wood, NAS Director, political counselor (note taker) and two
aides.


3. (C) President Uribe opened by thanking Director Walters
for USG support in the fight against drugs. He expressed
concern about the increase in coca production in Narino
department which he said could reach 34,000 hectares. While
acknowledging that the density and productivity of the
cultivation had begun to decline, which was good news, Narino
still remained a troublesome development. We have to show
real results, he said, and, if necessary, adjust our strategy
to be more effective. Uribe expressed concern about year-end
coca hectarage figures due out soon. He stressed that many
were predicting poor results, particularly those opposed to
spraying and the GOC policy on extraditions. He hoped that
all the year-end reports would show increased reduction in
coca production for 2005. The GOC had made the greatest
effort to expand fumigation. Last year, 126,000 hectares
were sprayed. This year, the goal of 130,000 had already
been reached. This was accomplished even with one spray
package currently grounded and the diversion of helicopters
for high value target missions. Ambassador Wood noted that
the grounded spray package should be flying again in three
weeks. Uribe said his coca eradication goal for 2006 would
be 150,000 hectares. Manual eradication efforts were also
being enhanced. Uribe reported that 26,000 hectares had been
completed so far, with a 30,000-plus hectares projection by
year's end.


4. (C) Director Walters praised GOC efforts to reduce the
supply of cocaine and heroin, and highlighted efforts to
reduce demand in the U.S. He said the U.S. was spending
three billion USD on drug prevention programs and, as a
result, has seen a 17 percent decrease in illicit drug
consumption in the U.S. Addicts were attritting by 20
percent each year. The challenge was to keep them from being
replaced. He reviewed ONDCP statistics reflecting U.S.
consumption, Colombian cultivation (vs spray levels) and
potential production, and Andean potential production and
export quality. He noted that his office was finalizing a
report on the availability, purity, and cost of cocaine on
the U.S. market that would be released in December.


5. (C) Walters underscored that, rather than spreading
production to other countries, the narcotraffickers had
decided to "fight it out in Colombia" where the cultivation
and production infrastructures were already in place.
Therefore, we are seeing greater efforts to maximize
cultivation in Colombia, with more intense replanting regimes
and smaller plots to evade aerial spraying. The increased
cost of moving the cultivation and production around was
diminishing profits. GOC efforts were reducing cultivation
and production even though total hectare was not decreasing
as fast. Prices remained steady because of a decrease in
both supply and demand.


6. (C) Walters also reported that the U.S. had information
about a decline in purity and a decrease in the availability
of cocaine in the U.K. The shortage of supply was reflected
in the decline of purity rather than an increase in price.
If the narcos could supply it at previous levels of purity,
they would. However, because the U.K. information had been
derived by wiretaps, he was unable to say so in public yet.
Wood asked whether we could accurately characterize the
current state of play by saying there was reliable evidence
that there was a shortage of cocaine in some markets.
Walters said it would be more accurate at this stage to say
that the market had compressed. Walters underscored that the
price and purity changes were new. The last time this had
happened was during the Barco administration around 1989-90,
but it did not last. Because the drug pipeline is long and
large and there had been overproduction each year, it would
be a while to say definitively that the trend was likely to
continue. There are signs the offense is winning, said
Walters, but the defense could change tactics. The important
thing was that the pipeline was now stretched -- the narcos
had lost the capacity to keep the market. It was time to
pour on the pressure. The more we do now to choke them, he
said, the greater the impact.


7. (C) Walters also warned that the GOC and USG had to be
vigilant on the capacity for reconstitution (i.e., the
ability to re-plant, move to other areas, etc). He
reiterated that we had to focus on the entire production line
-- collection, consolidation, movement and sale -- and
continue squeezing out the fat. The pipeline had been long
and loose but was now more like a tight wire. The GOC has
done this via its eradication and interdiction efforts.

Uribe Concerned about Ecuador
--------------


8. (C) Uribe raised concerns about reports of coca
cultivation in Ecuador. He requested U.S. assistance in
determining if Ecuador had areas with illicit crops. Foreign
Minister Barco said the GOC was trying to perusade GOC
officials that it was in their interest to learn the facts
and to work together to attack the problem. Walters doubted
that the GOE would allow too much drug growth. He understood
that some in the Ecuadorian armed forces were permitting FARC
members to transit back and forth over the border for a fee.
Obvious drug growth would put too much attention on the petty
corruption. It was in the GOE's own interest to limit drug
growth, he said. The day someone finds 10,000 hectares
cultivated with coca, everyone's life will change.

We Can Win: Spray Public Opinion with Good News
-------------- --


9. (C) Walters reiterated that the U.S. and Colombia had to
focus on preventing the drug trade from settling down in new
areas. This can prevent new markets from emerging. We are
fighting a war of fear and hope, he said. Many believe that
it was not possible to defeat the "beast of terror and
drugs." Yet, the GOC under Uribe has had the vision and
confidence to say, yes, we can stop it. He told Uribe that
the GOC was showing the narcos that serious governments can
take them on, remain strong, promote democracy and human
rights, and make progress.


10. (C) Uribe said he had to win back public opinion. When
reporters, editorialists and columnists in top newspapers
write that Colombia is losing the war on drugs,as has been
the case recently, everyone becomes discouraged. It was
necessary to show the public that"partial goals" had already
been met. Could we not
concentrate efforts on the full eradication of poppy, he
asked? People needed to believe it was possible to win
battles in a long-term war. Spraying also needed to
continue; the spray package currently sidelined had to
become operational as soon as possible. This would produce
better results. Finally, ONDCP needed to publish its recent
findings soon. It is important that you explain your
findings to Colombians. We have to "spray public opinion"
repeatedly with good news, said Uribe.


11. (C) Walters stressed that, while eradication and
interdiction were key elements in any counter-drug strategy,
there were other ways to fight the war. Governments had to go
after people who make profits out of addiction and death and
take away their resources. Uribe reported there was good
news on this front. Narcotraffickers were no longer able to
buy farms in the two most northern provinces of the country,
an indication of their declining financial resources.
Confiscations, seizures and forfeitures were all on the rise.
Walters said the process had to be swifter. The key was to
diminish the capacity of the narco-traffickers to re-start
business somewhere else.

Spraying in the National Parks
--------------


12. (C) Noting that the national parks represented ten
percent of Colombia's territory, Wood pressed Uribe on how
the GOC planned to deal with the 10,000 hectares already
under coca cultivation. Minister Sabas Pretelt said he was
waiting for a police assessment on whether manual eradication
could do the job. If their conclusion is that it cannot, the
GOC will authorize spraying. (Embassy understands that the
police report is finished. Interior and Justice Minister
Pretelt has been sitting on it. Uribe asked him during the
meeting if the GOC had the political space to authorize
spraying.) Uribe also pressed Hoyos on manual eradication,
asking if the numbers being reported were accurate (Hoyos
said yes),and if a goal of 30,000 hectares could be reached
in 2005 (Hoyos said the manual eradication teams had been
working very hard and were now very tired, with many of the
teams on rotation for rest).

13.(U) This message was cleared by ONDCP Director Walters.

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