PEACE COMMISSIONER ANNOUNCES GOC INTENTION TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BOGOTA 010399

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015
TAGS: KJUS PGOV PREL PTER CO
SUBJECT: PEACE COMMISSIONER ANNOUNCES GOC INTENTION TO
STICK WITH DECEMBER 31 DEMOBILIZATION DEADLINE

REF: BOGOTA 10060

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) On November 1, in an official communique, Peace
Commissioner Luis Carlos Restrepo declared that the GOC
intended to hold the United-Self Defense Forces of Colombia
(AUC) to the December 31, 2005 demobilization deadline, or be
met with military confrontation. He also announced that no
AUC member could participate in politics until their group
had fully demobilized and cleared up any pending legal
obligations with the State. (On October 21, Restrepo told
the Ambassador that he preferred extending the deadline;
Uribe has over-ruled him.) At the same time, according to
the International Organization for Migration (IOM),whose
personnel have participated in almost every demobilization
thus far, the GOC has neither the personnel nor resources to
complete the process if the AUC concedes to GOC demands. End
Summary.

--------------
AUC RESPONDS TO GOC'S COMMUNIQUE
--------------


2. (SBU) In a November 1 communique, Peace Commissioner Luis
Carlos Restrepo announced the following (begin unofficial
translation):

-- The demobilization timeline agreed upon with the AUC must
be fully realized. According to the July 15, 2003 Santa Fe
de Ralito Accord, the final date for demobilizations will be
December 31, 2005. There is no valid reason for these groups
to suspended demobilizations. Those who decide not to
demobilize voluntarily will be confronted militarily.

-- AUC members must abstain from any participation in
politics. Only when these structures have been dismantled in
their totality and their members have responded for crimes
committed, can we establish whether they comply with the
legal requirements to participate in political debate.

End of unofficial translation.


3. (SBU) AUC political chief Ivan Roberto Duque, AKA "Ernesto
Baez," responded with surprise to the GOC's "ultimatum" in a
radio interview later in the day. Despite some difficulties,
Baez said the peace process continued. Nevertheless, he said
if the GOC failed to extend the December 31 deadline, it
would be detrimental to the completion of all demobilizations
since it was unrealistic to think all demobilizations could
be completed before the deadline. He also announced that AUC
negotiators have scheduled to meet with Restrepo on November
3 to discuss the GOC's conditions in greater detail.


4. (SBU) In an article in El Tiempo on November 2, Baez
reiterated that completing the remaining demobilizations
before the deadline would be impossible since it has taken
over a year to demobilize 10,000 combatants. He also warned
the GOC not to threaten them with military force, since that
force has been unable to solve the conflict in 40 years.

--------------
RESTREPO HAD INITIALLY EXPRESSED INTEREST
IN POSTPONING DEMOBILIZATION DEADLINE
--------------


5. (C) On October 21 per reftel, Restrepo briefed Ambassador
and WHA/AND Director Phil French on his views regarding why
he thought extending the December 31, 2005 demobilization
deadline would be necessary, but cautioned that he had not
yet consulted President Uribe. Restrepo explained that it
was unrealistic to think they could demobilize the remaining
10,000 paramilitaries in less than two months, and that
holding to the deadline would hinder the GOC more than the
AUC. The Ambassador cautioned against allowing

demobilizations to extend beyond the December 31 deadline
since it would risk the credibility of and support for the
process.

--------------
URIBE DID NOT WANT TO MOVE DEADLINE
--------------


6. (C) According to an official in the Peace Commissioner's
Office, Uribe disagreed with Restrepo, decided that the GOC
would not negotiate with the AUC beyond the agreed deadline,
and insisted that the government's position be reiterated
publicly. RCN journalist Alfredo Bustillo, who follows the
peace process and has covered the paramilitary phenomenon for
several years, asserted to poloff that Uribe's decision is a
rebuff to Restrepo. Bustillo said the Peace Commissioner is
increasingly tired, isolated, and frustrated with the
President overruling his recommendations. Nevertheless,
Bustillo claimed that maintaining the deadline was a good
move by the government since the last set of para groups need
to be spoken to more forcefully.


7. (C) In telephone conversations with the President and the
President's chief of staff on other issues, the Ambassador
expressed support for Uribe's decision not the extend the
December 31 deadline.

-------------- -
NEAR-TERM FUTURE FOR DEMOBILIZATIONS UNCERTAIN
-------------- -


8. (C) There does remain concern that the GOC lacks the
logistical capacity in personnel and resources to complete
demobilization by December 31. According to Camilo Legizamo
from the IOM, whose organization has participated in almost
every demobilization to date, even if the AUC were to attempt
to meet the deadline with two or three demobilizations
simultaneously over the next two months, the GOC does not
have the resources to accommodate them. The need for
personnel on demobilization day as well as a complete
security infrastructure in the areas where the groups have
demobilized would overwhelm GOC capacity, says Legizamo.
Moreover, he has heard through GOC officials that the next
demobilization will not take place until November 11.
According to RCN's Bustillo, the AUC will not reinitiate
demobilizations until the GOC answers them on imprisonment
conditions, justice and peace law eligibility, and security
reassurances to their demobilized areas.
WOOD