Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BEIRUT2068
2005-06-24 16:29:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Beirut
Cable title:  

MGLE1: LEBANON'S NEW PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP

Tags:  KDEM PGOV PHUM PINR 
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P 241629Z JUN 05
FM AMEMBASSY BEIRUT
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8433
INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002068 


NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: MGLE1: LEBANON'S NEW PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP

Classified By: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASONS PARA 1.5(c)

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 002068


NSC FOR ABRAMS/DANIN/POUNDS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/23/2015
TAGS: KDEM PGOV PHUM PINR
SUBJECT: MGLE1: LEBANON'S NEW PARLIAMENTARY LEADERSHIP

Classified By: JEFFREY FELTMAN, AMBASSADOR. REASONS PARA 1.5(c)


1. (C) Four major personalities will dominate the new
Parliament. These leaders -- Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt,
Hassan Nasrallah, and Michel Aoun -- have the votes and the
voices they need to push for -- or to block --change. The
men and women who counsel these figures will be among our
chief interlocutors as we press our agenda of Lebanese
reform, and compliance with UNSCR 1559.

The Son Ascendant
--------------


2. (CN/F) Assuming he can maintain some internal coalition
discipline, Saad Hariri will lead a bloc of 72 deputies -- an
amalgam of his own Future Current (with 35 of the 72 seats),
Walid Jumblatt's Democratic Gathering, what remains of the
"Christian opposition," and other "Bristol" allies. He will
also wield the power of the Sunni street to name the new
Prime Minister. The people around him are companions of his
murdered father; they are also the Saudis and Lebanese who
make up a large part of his financial base. Hariri's
Christian allies range from the militantly Christian Lebanese
Forces to former MP Ghattas Khoury, an ally of Rafiq Hariri
and who loyally stood down from the Hariri slate of
candidates in response to entreaties that the Hariri slate in
Beirut include the "more Christian" Solange Gemayel. Among
the advisors whom Saad Hariri inherits are the following
figures, most of whom surrounded his father in various
governments.

-- Economics: Saad himself has announced he is eager for
economic reforms. Ghazi Youssef, an American citizen, is
listed as chief among Hariri's economic advisors. As Head of
the Higher Privatization Council, Youssef participated in the
drafting of Beirut's Paris I and II financing packages.
Fouad Siniora, former Finance Minister and Hariri family
advisor, is the real force behind Hariri,s economic plans,
though. Siniora was the architect of the never-adopted,
reform-minded 2005 budget proposal submitted during the
Hariri government,s last days in office, last October. This
budget is being viewed as Hariri,s agenda for reform. Saad
and his advisers are capitalists in the Saudi mold who are
likely to continue the Hariri tradition of reliance on the
private sector. Standing in his way are Hariri's difficult

relationship with Amal leader Nabih Berri, and potential
resistance from President Lahoud.

-- Politics: Salim Diab, a businessman, will be influential
in Hariri's political apparatus. He was first elected MP
during 1996 under a Rafiq Hariri government, but reportedly
decided a year later that he was not fit for the job and
resigned. Diab clashed with Rafiq Hariri in 1997. When
Rafiq Hariri supported a popular amnesty law that threatened
to pardon convicted drug dealers and smugglers, Diab strongly
opposed the legislation. Although Diab refused to submit to
Hariri's pressure, the two men maintained a close friendship.
Another advisor, Johnny Abdo, is a French and U.S.-trained
professional soldier with a long history with the Hariri
family. Rafiq Hariri once suggested his name as a
presidential candidate to replace then President Amin
Gemayel. In 1983, Abdo resigned from the army to accept an
appointment as Lebanese Ambassador to Switzerland. In 1989
he was appointed to France, and has spent most of his time in
Paris since then. Abdo is a fervent opponent of President
Emile Lahoud and the Syrians. He is particularly close to
Rafiq Hariri's widow, Nazik Hariri.

Jumblatt: The perennial princeling
--------------


3. (C) Walid Jumblatt returns to legislative politics with
a new alliance with Saad Hariri, and old loyalties with his
Druze constituency. Now, he returns with credentials as the
leader who could approach Hizballah and bring the Shia bloc
of votes over to Druze-Sunni causes (specifically, in the
Baabda-Aley elections). He is outspoken, recently, in his
opposition to UNSCR 1559, and he resists (at least in public)
disarming Hizballah. However, some Shia sources question the
viability of an enduring alliance between Jumblatt and
Nasrallah. The people closest to Jumblatt include new faces
like Faysal Sayegh. Sayegh was previously governor of the
South and an IV grantee. The young Druze has announced his
intention to support reforms in all sectors of the society.
As a provincial governor, Sayegh saw at first hand the
corruption of standard politicians like Nabih Berri. He
bemoaned the fact that both Lahoud and Berri, whom he saw as
real barriers to reform, would likely return to their
positions. Sayegh insisted that Walid Jumblatt, for all his
infamous maneuverings, is committed to progressive change.

Aoun: The man on horseback
--------------


4. (C) Michel Aoun will enter parliament with a
significant minority of deputies loyal to him. The former
General began his campaign as an anti-confessional force,
only to be crowned by voters as the, "strong leader of the
Christians." The modest number of Muslim deputies elected
with him will reinforce his image as a Christian leader among
the population. Along with his former comrades in arms,
Aoun's brain trust includes a number of U.S.-trained
businessmen operating around the world. Michel De
Chadarevian is the head of the political committee of Aoun's
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) political party. He first
joined the FPM during 1988, when General Aoun was appointed
acting Prime Minister. De Chadarevian acted since then as
the principal coordinator between the FPM and foreign
embassies. De Chadarevian worked extensively on the
political reform program of the FPM called the "Alternative."
Sami Nader, Aoun's son-in-law, is one of the drafters of
Aoun's reform package. Nader is a businessman with
experience in large-scale corporate mergers. The
professionalism of Aoun's team was reflected in the flashy
program his Free Patriotic Movement distributed before and
during elections.

The Lords of the Lebanese Shia
--------------


5. (C) Hassan Nasrallah is among the leaders, along with
Nabih Berri, of a 35-member Hizballah-Amal-plus allies
delegation in the Parliament. Hizballah has announced its
intention to participate in government . There is not yet
open speculation about which ministries Hizballah might seek
to head. Hizballah's chief preoccupation will be slowing, or
halting, implementation of UNSCR 1559 with its call for
disarmament of militias. Local observers have quoted
Hizballah leaders as saying they are entering government to
defend their armed struggle. Economic reform and
administrative reform are not on any published Hizballah
agenda. However, within the Parliament, Hizballah deputies
have always played the role of dissenters. Hizballah
operates a "Center for Research and Studies" that publishes
all the movement's policy documents. There is a strong
moralist current in Hizballah's policies that would seem to
allow the Shia organization to support reforms that attack
corruption and support the rights of the Lebanese to good
governance.


6. (C) Amal Leader Nabih Berri, in his present mandate as
once and perhaps future speaker of Pparliament, owes his
parliamentary seat to Hizballah. His debt to Hassan
Nasrallah may be in fact so great that Berri -- or so the
optimists hope -- has become irrelevant as a political actor.
The Speaker is beset by accusations of corruption on all
sides. He is targeted by the opposition as the chief barrier
to reform. Leading Christian politicians, and even some
moderate Sunnis such as Tripoli MP Mosbah al-Ahdab, are
calling for Berri's removal. Opponents of Berri reject
concern for Shia sensibilities as a reason to re-elect the
Speaker. Their logic runs that the Shia are due a blow to
their body politic, given that the Sunnis lost Hariri and the
Christians were forced to compete under the 2000 election
law. Thus, why should the Shia escape this process unscathed?


7. (C) Berri's closest advisor on all issues appears to be
his younger brother Mahmoud. He is a French-educated former
professor of political scienc. He is charming and well
spoken. But he has nt shown the substance, or even
creativity, of moe experienced Lebanese politicos.


8. (C) Commnt: The chief tests for reform will be the
batte surrounding election of a new Speaker (which coul
mean a return of Berri),composition of the newCabinet, and
the Presidency. Berri's supporterswill make the case that
he is powerful enough toreform the political landscape, and
even his ownparty. However, the fact that Berri is worried
aout international pressure to have him removed woud seem
to indicate weakness rather than strength Ideas and good
advice are plentiful in Lebanon But reform of political
and economic structurs has always taken a back seat to
sectarian maneuering and the pursuit of personal interests.
Endcomment.


FELTMAN