INFORMAL ELECTION-DAY POLL RESULTS IN THE SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000152

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2015
TAGS: PREL KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: INFORMAL ELECTION-DAY POLL RESULTS IN THE SOUTH

CLASSIFIED BY: Alan Latimer, Regional Coordinator, Regional
Embassy Office Basrah, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (C) Summary. During the December 15 election REO Basrah
partnered with Al-Manarah newspaper, Radio Shinasheel and the
AFAQ Media NGO to conduct informal polling of Iraqi voters in
the south. These three organizations conducted election-day
polling in all four (4) southern provinces, using the same
questionnaire developed collaboratively with the REO. As of
December 16, Al-Manarah and AFAQ reported the results of 3,759
responses to the REO. The raw data indicates that 49.19% of
voters that responded to the poll said they voted for the 555
list, with 20.54% for 731. The poll also asked about important
issues and influences affecting voters' decisions, as well as
collecting demographic data. The poll results should be
considered anecdotal and viewed only as collected data. End
Summary.


2. (C) According to a summary of all data collected, 49.19% of
poll participants indicated a vote for 555, 20.54% for 731,
18.76% for other parties and 11.51% did not respond to the
question. By province the raw data indicated the following:

--Basrah: 555 (48.45%),731 (22.14%),Other Lists (25.62%),No
Answer (3.79%)
--Nasariyah: 555 (59.21%),731 (18.87%),Other Lists (4.11%),
No Answer (17.81%)
--Al-Amarah: 555 (58.98%),731 (21.53%),Other Lists (13.39%),
No Answer (6.10%)
--Al-Samawah: 555 (53.80%),731 (23.68%),Other Lists (4.39%),
No Answer (18.13%)

REO Basrah received polling data from Wasit, Najaf, Diywaniyah,
Karbala and Babil, but the sample size was considerably smaller
than the four southern provinces as AFAQ and Radio Shinasheel
did not conduct polling in south central Iraq. The data were
included in overall summary calculations throughout the cable,
but are not referenced here.

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Security and family/religious values were most important
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3. (C) 34.88% of all responses indicated that 'security' was
the most important issue affecting their own vote, with 33.70%
indicating personal/family values. 18.09% of voters indicated
that 'comments or statements' by Al-Sistani affected their vote.
Security was the most important issue facing all Iraqis during
the election, drawing the largest response at 43.41%. When
asked the source of political advertising they saw prior to the
election, 51.51% responded 'posters', with 29.30% responding
'TV', and only a few indicated newspapers, radio or leaflets.
However, only 20.62% said that advertising affected howthey
voted. Poll participants cited religious values as the most
important "personal issue" affecting their vote (35.28%),with
their 'own opinions' a close second (31.32%).


4. (C) The reported demographics for the combined polling data
are as follows:

Age
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-- 18-25 730 24.02%
-- 25-35 997 29.37%
-- 35-50 868 26.44%
-- 50-65 333 9.86%
-- Over 65 122 3.73%
-- No Answer 263 6.58%

Gender
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-- Male 2115 66.12%
-- Female 864 25.52%
-- No Answer 334 8.36%

Education
--------------
-- Primary 793 24.97%
-- Secondary 1104 33.68%
-- College 678 22.52%
-- None 220 11.23%
-- No Answer 304 7.61%


5. (C) Polling organizations reported a number of difficulties
in conducting the poll. The security situation required that
pollsters pre-position themselves in the respective locations
several days prior to the election. Poll workers were unable to
canvas the cities that they covered due to transportation
restrictions. Poll results had to be called in to media
organizations throughout the day, which was problematic due to
poor communications infrastructure. As seen in the demographic
data, women were reluctant to participate in the poll, and poll
workers reported that those who did participate were often in
the presence of their husband or father. The proportion of
women participating in the poll was far lower than their turnout
in the actual election, which undoubtedly affected the poll
results. In Babil and Wasit provinces, poll workers reported
that participants were very reluctant to indicate their voting
decision.


6. (C) Comment. Poll results received from AFAQ and Al-Manarah
were consistent with pre-election expectations. The raw data
suggests that support for 555 in the outlying provinces of Dhi
Qar, Muthanna and Maysan was categorically stronger than in
Basrah, due in part to a less affluent, less educated
population. Although security concerns were cited by poll
participants in most provinces as the primary issue affecting
them, personal and religious values played a strong role in
voting decisions. End Comment
GROSS