LUNCH WITH THAKSIN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 007529

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/07/2020
TAGS: ETRD PGOV PHUM PTER TH BURMA CIA
SUBJECT: LUNCH WITH THAKSIN

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE. REASON: 1.4(D)


1. (S) Summary: During lunch at the residence on December
7, Prime Minister Thaksin and I discussed the King's recent
birthday speech, the situation in Thailand's south, the issue
of extrajudicial killings, Thai-Malaysian relations, Burma
policy, North Korea, the US-Thai Action Plan, Thailand's
third quarter GDP spurt, and the return of former Prime
Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyut. Thaksin told me that he
enjoys a uniformly good relationship with the King. He
denied any plans by the RTG to allow targeted killings of
suspected militants in the south and understood my admonition
over the damage to Thai-U.S. relations if any Thai officials
perpetrated any summary killings. Thaksin claimed that the
situation in the south is gradually improving. He expects
some of the 131 Thai Muslims who fled to Malaysia to return
now that UMNO has won the by-election in Kelantan. On Burma,
Thaksin acknowledged the lack of any positive measures by the
SPDC. I thanked him for the encouraging movement made by the
Thais at the London FTA round and elicited his firm assurance
that Thailand will refurbish its fleet of F-16's in lieu of
purchasing new Russian SU-30s. End Summary.

HAPPY WITH KING'S TREATMENT AND HIS RELATIONS WITH THE PALACE


2. (C) Prime Minister Thaksin came to the residence on
December 7 flush from what he considered a boost from the
King's birthday speech several days earlier. Thaksin said
there were no unpleasant surprises in the speech and noted
that the King had previewed the speech to him on November 21.
The King counseled him not to be hot headed in response to
his critics. Thaksin replied that as he grew closer to age
60 he would mellow. According to Thaksin, the King's
frequent anecdotes during the December 4 speech referring to
the Prime Minister had the quality of inside jokes that he
and Thaksin shared. Thaksin noted that he had dropped his
lawsuits against fervent critic Sondhi Limthongkul. I asked
him if this had taken the wind out of Sondhi's sails.
Thaksin thought so, saying that the Bangkok elite may be
easily duped by a "crook" like Sondhi, but "not for long."
He said that he was not the least concerned about Sondhi's
next rally on December 9 and ridiculed his claim that half a
million Thais would turn out.


3. (S) Thaksin expressed satisfaction over what he termed a
uniformly good relationship with the Palace. He related to
me that when he called on the King following his massive 377
seat win last February, he intimated that it would be his
last term. "What, you will leave me alone?" Thaksin said the
King replied. The Queen also urged that Thaksin see the King
regularly, citing his ability to cheer up His Majesty.
Thaksin agreed that the King's chief motivation these days is
the preservation of the status of the monarchy. He referred
humorously to the first time he attended the King's birthday
speech as Prime Minister. The King at that time made
critical comments about him. While he visibly cringed,
Khunying Potjaman (Thaksin's wife) dug him in the ribs with
her elbow. The King told him later that he was lucky to have
a Khun Potjaman to candidly advise him as well as encourage
him. When I asked Thaksin if the Queen was His Majesty's
"Khun Potjaman," he said emphatically no. The Palace clearly
has two camps, with fundamentally different DNA in each.

SAYS SOUTH IMPROVING


4. (C) Thaksin expressed satisfaction with the job new RTA
Commander General Sondhi is doing in the south. In the past,
soldiers had simply put in their time, avoiding engagements.
General Sondhi is more aggressive and proactive. Thaksin
added that his own reception was better among southerners in
his most recent visits and that he felt that the government's
efforts to direct more budget and more jobs programs to the
region was bearing fruit. I told him that we had heard
disquieting rumors that lists of suspected militants had been
drawn up by authorities -- to be targeted for extrajudicial
killing. The Prime Minister emphatically denied this, saying
that lists of suspects had been drawn up but for publication
in order to bring them in for processing by authorities.
Those accused and convicted of offenses would face jail
through the legal process. Those who had basically been in
the wrong company would undergo "rehabilitation."


5. (C) I responded that I would inform Washington of his
reassurances, but strongly cautioned he needed to monitor
this situation closely. If any official took it upon himself
to "unilaterally" commit an extrajudicial execution, even in
the face of official RTG policy to the contrary, we would
nevertheless immediately cut off ties with that unit and
there would be a risk of serious damage to our bilateral
relations, and to Thaksin's personal reputation. Thaksin
said that he understood and repeated that there were no death
lists. I repeated that even in the absence of a policy of
targeted killings an individual act would have serious
repercussions.

MALAYSIA AND THE SOUTH


6. (C) Thaksin said that he has always enjoyed good
relations with former Prime Minister Mahathir. They had good
talks during Mahathir's visit last month. Badawi, on the
other hand, still didn't understand that Thaksin needed his
help on the south, the PM said. He repeated his claim that
that Badawi had personal sympathies with Pattani for
ancestral reasons. He had two private tete-a-tete meetings
with the Malaysian Prime Minister during last month's APEC
Summit in Busan. Thaksin said that he first addressed the
Malaysian Prime Minister as his "former friend," then told
the consternated Badawi that he meant to say "longtime
friend." Thaksin said that he anticipated progress on
repatriating at least some of the 131 Thai Muslims who fled
to Malaysia several months ago. Now that UMNO has won the
Kelantan by-election, it will be easier for Kuala Lumpur to
work the issue, he believed. Besides, Thaksin added, Badawi
knows that without progress he would not go to Kuala Lumpur
later this month for the ASEAN Summit.

NO GOOD NEWS ON BURMA


7. (C) Thaksin described as "crazy" the recent move by the
SPDC to a new capital. I asked him why he had not publicly
criticized the regime as he had promised the President and
the Secretary. Quiet admonition behind closed doors by the
Foreign Minister is not the same as public calls by the RTG
for the SPDC to free Aung San Suu Kyi, allow the NLD to
participate fully in the political process and to hold a real
and credible constitutional convention, Thaksin said that
the main purpose of the RTG's engagement policy with Rangoon
had been to get Burmese cooperation in stemming the flow of
drugs into Thailand. While some 60 percent had been
stanched, the rest still goes into Thailand -- the SPDC
doesn't see it as its problem. Thaksin also agreed that the
plight of the Burmese people -- poor, malnourished and
without rights -- should be addressed. I reminded him again
that he had promised the President and the Secretary to come
out strongly and publicly against the SPDC's policies. We
agreed that a very tiny group of individuals controlled all
aspects of Buma's life and that they fear a calamitous
downfall if they loosen their grip even a tiny bit.

GOOD FOLLOW-UP ON A NUMBER OF ISSUES


8. (C) I expressed satisfaction at the progress we were
making on the U.S.-Thailand Action Plan. I then asked
Thaksin for the latest on the Royal Thai Air Force's pending
aircraft purchase. Thaksin replied that Thailand will
refurbish its fleet of F-16's to extend their flight lives
rather than buy SU-30s from Russia. He said that he does
want access to the Russian market so will have to buy
something from Moscow, perhaps M-17 helicopters, but he
assured me again that the existing F-16 fleet will receive
mid-life upgrades in lieu of the RTAF purchasing SU-30s. I
asked if he plans to visit North Korea. Thaksin replied that
he would not. I also thanked him for ramrodding his
ministers into working towards concluding a successful FTA
early next year. The London round had shown encouraging
progress. Thaksin said that he was determined to achieve the
FTA with the U.S. The U.S. has FTA's with others and
Thailand can't miss the boat. He was determined on this. He
related, for example, that he had told his Central Bank
Governor to follow his FTA policy or he will be out. The
Banking sector is run by a oligarchy, Thaksin complained,
afraid that competition will take away the big margins they
have enjoyed in their protected sector.

ECONOMY SHOWS STRENGTH


9. (C) I congratulated Thaksin on the third quarter 5.4
percent growth rate and the annualized 4.7 percent rate.
Thaksin noted that following the disastrous first quarter
numbers "we took steps." As for improving the population's
economic condition, I asked him about his callback of former
Prime Minister Chavalit Yongchaiyut to head the
administration's anti-poverty drive. Does he trust Chavalit?
Thaksin said that Chavalit has "lots of time" and "takes
orders well."

REFERS TO REPORTS OF SECRET DETENTION FACILITIES


10. (S) Thaksin noted that ABC News had reported that the
U.S. had operated secret detention facilities in Thailand to
hold terror suspects. He noted that "we deny" these
reports." I responded that we as a rule do not comment on
intelligence allegations. Thaksin chuckled at how the Thai
media had gotten the mistaken idea that VOA's Udorn facility
was one of those "black prisons" and complimented us for
having opened up the facility for a huge contingent of press
to see for themselves.


11. (C) Comment: Thaksin was boosted by the King's speech
and his apparent outmaneuvering of Sondhi. He was confident
of his close ties to the Palace and feels that he and the
King enjoy a close relationship. We will pocket his
assurances that there will be no extrajudicial killings in
the south on his watch and we will hold him to these
assurances. While we will wait to see where he will go on
Burma, Thaksin's actions on the F-16s, decision not to go to
Pyongyang, progress on FTA, and the U.S.-Thai action plan
show a ledger with a positive balance. End Comment

BOYCE