PRIVY COUNSELOR SURAYUD ON SITUATION IN SOUTHERN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007091

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP
OSD FOR POWERS
PACOM FOR FPA HUSO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR TH
SUBJECT: PRIVY COUNSELOR SURAYUD ON SITUATION IN SOUTHERN
THAILAND

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) Summary. On November 10, Privy Counselor General
Surayud Chulanont indicated to visiting DAS Eric John and the
Ambassador that the Queen now has a better understanding of
the situation in southern Thailand. He was critical,
however, of the police -- suggesting that they still do not
have a grasp of the culture, language or grievances of
Muslims in the South. General Surayud also accused PM
Thaksin of pandering to Buddhist voters by taking a hard line
towards the violence and suggested that Thaksin's "D-Day"
against agitators would start on November 15. He suggested
that Thailand should do more to work with Malaysia to address
their common problem. End Summary.


THE QUEEN IS STARTING TO UNDERSTAND THE PROBLEM


2. (C) On November 10, Privy Counselor Surayud (strictly
protect) briefed the Ambassador and DAS John on the situation
in the South. Surayad had returned the day before from six
weeks with Queen Sirikit in Narathiwat. He suggested that,
although some progress was being made in reaching out to
Muslim clerics and elders in the troubled region, Muslim
youths continued to be disaffected and posed ripe targets for
agitators. Surayud admitted that the Queen had shown a lack
of understanding about the South in the past. Now, however,
after spending more time interacting with residents in the
region, he believes she now understands that the violence is
being pushed by only a fringe of Muslim society. Surayud
said that the Queen was in the south to promote agricultural
and local handicraft projects and that, during the course of
these promotions, she had many opportunities to meet with
local residents, especially housewives, to hear their
concerns. In conversations with southern leaders and
ordinary citizens, the Queen and Surayud urged prominent
clerics and political figures to lead by example, to speak
out against violence, and to organize local self-defense
groups in cooperation with the security forces.

THE SECURITY FORCES DON'T UNDERSTAND THE SITUATION


3. (C) Surayud repeatedly expressed frustration over the
lack of understanding the security forces, especially the
police, have over the situation in the south. "They don't
speak the local dialect, they don't understand Islam and they
don't have proper supervision," he said. Surayud
acknowledged that the situation in the South was also being
affected by the international situation. "Just as in France,
the population watches TV and sees violence directed at
Muslims and are upset; and just as in France, our police do
not understand the root causes for the protests," he noted.

AND NEITHER DOES THE PM


4. (C) He was also very critical of Thaksin, suggesting
that the Prime Minister was pandering to Buddhist voters who
supported a hard-line policy towards the South. Surayud said
that police in Thailand are not generally respected and that
for years the South had been a dumping ground for bad Thai
cops who used their postings to feather their nests (i.e.,
through involvement in smuggling and other illegal
activities). General Surayud suggested that, because he was
trained as a policeman, Thaksin was overly influenced by the
police in forming his policy for the region. He also
believes that the situation is taking a toll on the PM,
describing Thaksin as looking "exhausted" the last time he
saw him in the South. Surayud described how agitators are
effectively linking the PM personally with their grievances
by putting Thaksin's face on scarecrows throughout the area.

RUMORS OF HIT LISTS


5. (C) Surayud said that he has heard rumors of lists of
agitators being compiled by the security forces, particularly
the police. He said that he has cautioned Royal Thai Army
officials against committing extra-judicial killings (EJKs)
by arguing that "hit-squads" and "death lists" would only
play into the hands of the agitators and stir up even more
unrest in the region. He did not indicate that he expected a
wave of EJKs as Thailand experienced two years ago during the
crackdown on drugs.

D-DAY IS COMING


6. (C) General Surayud was particularly critical of PM
Thaksin's announcement that the RTG would undertake a move
called "D-Day" to address the violence in the South.
Surayud, like most of our contacts, was uncertain exactly
what the security forces intended to do on "D-Day," but
characterized the move as needlessly antagonistic to Muslims
and one that would play into the hands of extremists.

RELATIONS WITH MALAYSIA

7. (C) The Privy Counselor maintained that Thaksin and
other senior leaders were making the issue of the 131 Thai
Muslims seeking UNHCR protection in Malaysia more difficult
than it needed to be. "If they want to go, let them go," he
offered. Of more concern, according to Surayud, was
Thaksin's inability to work closely with Malaysian leaders to
address the situation in the South. Surayud agreed with the
Ambassador's assessment that Thaksin's southern crisis is
also Malaysian PM Badawi's northern crisis. Until the two of
them can work in harmony, he suggested, the problem will only
get worse.


IMPROVING SCHOOLS


8. (C) General Surayud said that Thai officials were
increasingly concerned about the influence that Pesantren in
Indonesia had on young Thai Muslims. He confessed that the
security forces had no clear indication of how many Thai
young people had been educated in Indonesia or at what
schools. He said that his time in Narathiwat only confirmed
his belief that the RTG must work to improve the schools in
the region to address the root causes of the violence.

COMMENT


9. (C) Surayud is a highly-regarded elder statesman in
Thailand, influential and well regarded by the Royal Family,
the Army, and the public. Although a Thaksin critic, his
insights into the Prime Minister's Office in the past have
been spot on.


10. (U) DAS John has cleared this message.
BOYCE