Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BANGKOK673
2005-01-26 07:21:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAILAND REFOCUSES ON NATIONAL ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV TH TRT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000673 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV TH TRT
SUBJECT: THAILAND REFOCUSES ON NATIONAL ELECTION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason: 1.4 (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 000673

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV; PACOM FOR FPA HUSO.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/26/2015
TAGS: PGOV TH TRT
SUBJECT: THAILAND REFOCUSES ON NATIONAL ELECTION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Thailand continues its relief and
reconstruction efforts in the wake of last month's tsunami,
but the nation is also focusing on the approaching February 6
national elections. Almost 45 million Thais are expected to
go to the polls. All 500 hundred parliamentary seats (400
constituencies and 100 party list seats) -- and control of
the next government -- are at stake. As noted in earlier
reporting, virtually all the money is on a significant
re-election victory for Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and
his Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party. Presiding over an expanding
economy and enjoying a spurt in public approval because of
his strong role in directing the country's tsunami relief
campaign, Thaksin eclipses his lackluster chief rival,
Democrat Party (DP) leader Banyat Bantadtan. Many observers
here believe that the TRT might win up to 322 parliamentary
seats, with the DP projected to win about 112. Under this
projection, the Chart Thai (CT) and the Mahachon might pick
up 44 and 21 seats respectively. The remaining seat is
tipped for the New Aspiration Party (one holdout member who
did not join TRT). Presumably, the Chat Thai and/or Mahachon
parties would be available to join the TRT in a stronger
coalition, although TRT could form a government on its own
with 322 seats. (The CT was in coalition with the Thaksin's
first government, and Mahachon has also made it quite clear
that their bloc would go anywhere their interests could be
satisfied). End Summary.

IN THE WAKE OF TSUNAMI TRAGEDY THAILAND TURNS TO A NATIONAL
ELECTION


2. (U) On February 6, some six weeks after the devastating
tsunami that killed thousands of Thais and foreign tourists

SIPDIS
and caused billions in damage, Thais will vote for a new
government. Almost 45 million Thais are expected to cast
ballots for all 400 constituency seats and 100 party list
seats in Parliament. Thaksin is being tipped by virtually
all observers here as the winner by a decisive margin.

THAKSIN RIDING A WAVE OF POPULARITY


3. (SBU) Thaksin has had some setbacks over the past year
-- including accusations his government initially tried to
cover-up the avian flu outbreak (and might be continuing to

downplay it),and failed to stem increasing violence in the
south and rising fuel prices. Nevertheless, he appears to be
still viewed favorably by most Thais as a decisive leader who
has brought Thailand back from the throes of the 1997
economic collapse. His populist policies, such as the 30
baht medical plan, the village development fund and debt
moratorium, have proven to be tremendously successful with
the vast majority of the public. Thaksin's opponents are now
imitating him and offering their own programs. The DP has
switched from charging that TRT is bankrupting the country to
coming up with its own public entitlement plans. When
poloffs recently visited the northeastern Thailand, they
noted a plethora of DP, CT and Mahachon posters promising
voters free education, free medical care and monthly
government payments to elderly Thais.


4. (SBU) Despite extensive international criticism over his
heavy-handed methods in dealing with Muslim separatists in
Thailand's deep south and his 2003 bloody war on drugs, the
Prime Minister's style has in general been supported by the
Thai public. In the case of southern violence, general
(non-Muslim) Thai attitudes in other regions of the country
range from support for a crackdown to indifference. Thaksin
has been a consummate master of public relations at home and
very successfully played up his image as a player on the
international stage. His refusal to accept direct
international financial assistance in the wake of last
month's Tsunami played well to Thai nationalist sentiments.
Thaksin's televised and flag-draped announcement that
Thailand had paid off its IMF loans two years early was
another example of his ability to appeal to the public's
sense of patriotism. Even Thaksin's "unscripted" outbursts
to unwelcome press questions have been perceived by many
voters as proof that he is unafraid to share his unvarnished
opinions.

DEMOCRAT PARTY IN THE DOLDRUMS


5. (C) In contrast, the DP has thus far failed to catalyze
public excitement for its leadership or policies. While
"Thaksinomics" has been credited with a rapidly growing
economy and rising expectations, the DP under lackluster
leader Banyat Bantadtan spent the past three and a half years
mourning that Thailand's future is being mortgaged to
subsidize the government's populist programs -- before
proposing similar programs of its own. The Democrats are
still perceived by many Thai voters as having mortgaged the
country to the IMF and other foreigners in the wake of the
1997-98 crisis. In contrast, the image of Thaksin is that he
was able to take back control of Thailand's destiny while
growing the economy. Banyat replaced Chuan Leekpai as Party
Leader in a bitter contest with younger and more dynamic
Deputy Leader Abhiset Vejjajiva in 2002, thereby ending any
chance of a DP candidate who might have competed with Thaksin
on charisma. DP observers are fond of saying that Abhiset is
biding his time, angling to replace Banyat after the DP is
defeated next month, which indicates their low expectations
for the 2005 elections. But Abhiset in fact has had no other
choice since Banyat outmaneuvered him in 2002 among the DP
apparatchiks.

HOW DO THE NUMBERS LOOK?


6. (SBU) Recent polls suggest that even looking to Abhiset
in the next elections would be a long stretch for the
opposition. Over the January 22-23 weekend, various
newspaper and polling organizations came up with numbers
indicating that TRT would take 254 of the 400 constituency
seats to the DP's 85, CT's 39, and Mahachon's 21. The polls
also report that the TRT will take 24 of Bangkok's 37 seats
while DP will garner 12 and the CT 1. Combined with party
list seats (100 national, non-constituency seats awarded
proportionately to those parties who pick up five percent or
more of the countrywide vote) TRT is predicted to grab an
overall 322 seats to the DP's 112, CT's 44, Mahachon's 21 and
NAP's 1.. Barnharn Silpa-archa's Chart Thai will get its
best results in Northeast and Central Thailand. CT has been
a TRT coalition partner and is expected to be invited to join
a new TRT government.


7. (SBU) The Mahachon party is a bit more of a question
mark. Headed by Anek Laothamathat and disgruntled DP
ex-Secretary General Sanan Kachornprasart, this party was
only formed in mid-2003 and its ideology is suspect. Anek
and Sanan declare that they represent the "third way," a true
alternative to the TRT and DP. Cynics predict that its
decision on whether to join the government or the opposition
will be based on who offers the highest bid for its
affections. The party has been campaigning aggressively and
will likely perform best in Northeast Thailand.


8. (SBU) Regionally, TRT is widely expected to dominate
everywhere but in the South. In the North, Thaksin's home
region, pollsters give the TRT 59 of 76 seats. In the vote
rich but economically lagging Northeast, Thaksin's medical
care and loan programs could help his party win 98 of 136
seats. In the Bangkok Metropolitan area and in Central
Thailand, the TRT has been tipped to win 24 out of 37 and 63
out of 97 seats respectively. Only in the South, much of it
a traditional DP stronghold, does TRT come out worse than its
DP rival. This week's polls suggest that the DP could take
44 of 54 seats in the region.


9. (SBU) Complicating the situation of Thaksin in the South
are the legal travails of the man he appointed to lead the
TRT offensive in the region. Earlier this month DP MP Nipit
Intarasombat accused Deputy Agriculture Minister Newin
Chidchob -- who is heading up the TRT electoral campaign in
the South -- of flatly offering money for votes. Nipit
submitted an alleged tape recording of Newin making his offer
as evidence. Feigning to be stung by the allegation, Newin
struck back by suing Nipit for libel and accusing him of
falsifying the tape. Newin may have a hard time protesting
his innocence as many remember that there were allegations of
vote buying against him in the 1995 elections when he was
with the Chart Thai Party -- he was kept on because of his
value as a fund-raiser and faction leader. As is typical in
Thai elections, the mud is flying in other directions too. A
Senator from Sing Buri province announced that he had
received complaints from some voters that CT leader and
former PM Barnharn Silpa-archa, while campaigning for a CT
candidate, made possibly illegal money-for votes promises.
Both Newin and Barnharn are under threat of being "red
carded" (i.e. disqualified from the elections) by the
National Election Commission, but this outcome seems unlikely
at the moment.


10. (SBU) Comment: This election is being bitterly fought
at the local level, with reports of canvassers being
threatened and killed (septel). But on the national level,
most informed observers are predicting a significant TRT
victory, with their debates limited largely to the degree of
Thaksin's win. Though he suffered several stumbles last year
on the avian flu and southern security, Thaksin has largely
emerged with his popularity intact, and even enhanced. The
economy is still growing at an impressive clip. Thaksin's
quick, high visibility response to last month's tsunami
disaster, in which he was highlighted in the media on a daily
basis comforting distressed villagers, delegating
responsibility and setting deadlines, has buttressed his
reputation as a decisive leader. The Thai people feel that
their lot is getting better and they perceive Thaksin
Shinawatra as the source of the largesse they enjoy. Thai
voters are expected to give him a significant mandate for
another term as Prime Minister.









BOYCE