The Future of Thailand's Automotive Sector

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SUBJECT: The Future of Thailand's Automotive Sector


1.(U) Sensitive but Unclassified. Please handle accordingly.

2.(SBU) Summary. By 2010, Thailand plans to produce 1.8 million
cars and trucks annually, making it the ninth largest automobile
production nation in the world. While Thailand's main product
has been the one-ton pickup truck, the Royal Thai Government
(RTG) plans to create a second niche product, the EcoCar, to
further establish itself as a global auto manufacturer. In
response to the growing competitive pressure from China, Thailand
has signed several bilateral Free Trade Agreements, or FTAs, (and
is looking to sign more),which benefits its automotive sector.
In particular, if the U.S. lowers its 25 percent tariff on pickup
trucks, it could open up a new market for producers based in
Thailand. American-owned manufacturers will likely steer clear
of this potential opportunity due to agreements with American
labor unions. However, Japanese producers may have the capacity
and incentive to export to the U.S. if the tariff is reduced. At
this point, it is uncertain whether a tariff reduction would lead
to a flood of Thai pickups into the U.S., as Thai manufacturers
would need to undergo significant retooling and production
changes. End Summary.

Detroit of Asia Project

3.(U) In an ambitious project to make Thailand the "Detroit of
Asia," the RTG intends to aggressively promote expansion of
automobile, truck, motorcycle and automotive parts production.
The automobile industry is one of five targeted sectors (along
with agriculture, fashion, information and communications
technology, and skilled industry such as watch-, pen-, and optic-
making) that the RTG plans to promote to drive growth of the Thai
economy, with a target for these sectors to eventually contribute
20 percent of Thailand's GDP.

4.(U) According to Wallop Tiersiri, Director of Thailand's
Automotive Institute (TAI),the Thai Auto Industry Development
Strategy is to nearly double production to 1.8 million cars by
the end of 2010, making Thailand the world's ninth largest
manufacturer, up from its current position at fifteenth. Forty
percent of the planned production will be for exports. The plan
also calls for an increase in the production of motorcycles to 3
million from the current 2.4 million, and an increase in
production of automotive parts from the current annual value of
120-170 billion baht (US $3-4.25 billion) to 400 billion baht (US
$10 Billion).

5.(U) The RTG has given full support to the Detroit Asia Project,
charging the Ministry of Industry and the Office of Industrial
Economy with guiding the project. The RTG is also providing
input from the private sector through the National Automotive
Strategy Committee, which includes Ford, GM, Toyota, Honda,
Daimler-Chrysler, and Mitsubishi.

6.(SBU) In short, the major objectives of Thai auto industry are:
-- To become the world pickup truck production base,
-- To become the world motorcycle production base,
-- To become the production base of auto parts of both "OEM"
(Original Equipment Manufacturing) and "REM" (Replacement
Equipment Manufacturing).

The Project's Current Status

7.(U) When the project kicked off in 2001, the midpoint target of
1 million automobiles per year was set for 2006. During the
first three months of 2005, Thailand assembled 250,393 cars and
trucks, up 14.49 per cent from a year ago. At this rate, the
automotive sector is expected to hit the 1-million mark ahead of
schedule by November 2005. Currently, forty percent of vehicles
produced are exported, a ratio that will remain consistent even
when the number manufactured is upped to 1.8 million.

8.(U) The TAI attributes the project's success to government
efforts to create a positive business environment, which, along
with the competitiveness of local auto parts makers, appeals to
foreign investors. Corporate tax breaks, investment promotions
from the Board of Investment, and consumer tax incentives on
certain models have all contributed to attracting foreign
automotive makers. Currently, all major automotive
manufacturers, with the exception of Volkswagen and French
companies like Citroen and Renault, have plants in Thailand.
This includes Honda, Toyota, Ford, General Motors, Mitsubishi,
and Daimler-Chrysler. Investment in Thailand's automotive
manufacturing sector stands at over US $2 billion. Domestic auto
parts suppliers have been able to develop and support the
burgeoning auto industry thanks in part to technical assistance
from TAI, which provides IT investment, HR development, and
regulatory improvement. Thailand's major export markets are
Australasia, Europe, South Asia, the Middle East, and South
America. A Ford executive said his company exports its vehicles
made in Thailand to over 140 countries, the major exceptions
being Canada, the U.S., Mexico, and China.

The History of Auto Industry

9.(U) The production of automobiles in Thailand has mirrored the
general economic trends. Production levels reached a peak of
approximately 560,000 in 1997, but plunged to less than 160,000
the following year as a result of the Asian financial crisis.
The financial crisis actually helped Thailand jumpstart its
exports; as the domestic demand faltered, Thailand was left with
a glut of vehicles, which were then exported. The industry has
struggled to regain its strength since that time, and only
surpassed 1997 production levels in 2001. Following the crisis,
RTG policies such as improved transparency and encouraging
increased accountability of management to shareholders also
encouraged the export of vehicles produced in Thailand. That
helped dramatically boost exports to US $2.6 billion for January-
May 2005 from the same amount for the entirety of 2001.

10.(SBU) According to an executive of Ford Thailand, the current
diversified export base will serve as a buffer against any future
dramatic swings in the Thai economy. Further, he noted that
domestic sales should stay strong as, in spite of the new subway
and Skytrain (Bangkok's elevated mass transit system),the
passenger car or truck is "becoming more and more indispensable
for life Bangkok. As the city expands, people will not want to
take 4 buses and a subway to get to work from the suburbs."
Also, he points out that with Thai consumers, "newness counts."
This translates to a strong demand for new models.

11.(U) Thailand is different from its regional competitors of
India and China in that there are no domestic Thai auto
manufacturers. However, there are numerous 100 percent Thai-owned
auto parts manufacturers. During the 1990s, the government
required that certain auto components be manufactured locally.
The RTG has since abolished these domestic content laws in favor
of high import tariffs (from 20-33 percent) on auto parts.

The Pickup Truck


12. The one-ton pickup truck is Thailand's vehicle of
choice. Of the 418,663 vehicles produced in Thailand during
the first five months of 2005, 67.5 percent or 282,650 were
one-ton pickups or double cab pickups. Approximately 66
percent or 188,000 of these were sold domestically and the
remainder exported. Thailand is the second largest consumer
and producer of pickups in the world after the U.S. The
Thai market distortion towards pickups is the result of the
practicality of the pickup for a largely agrarian society,
combined with government policy to promote this model. In a
biased tax scheme, Thai consumers pay just 3 percent excise
tax for the purchase of a pickup as opposed to 30 percent or
more for a sedan. Pickup trucks, which run on diesel, tend
to be less fuel efficient than sedans. With the rising
price of oil, Thai consumers should be more inclined to
purchase sedans. However, the RTG has subsidized the price
of diesel by nearly 15 percent since January 2004,
eliminating any incentive to purchase fuel-efficient cars.
In July, the RTG eliminated the diesel subsidy, and the
price of diesel has increased over ten percent in the past
two months. As a result, domestic demand for diesel declined
16 percent between May and July 2005. Perhaps this new
added expense will decrease the Thai consumer's propensity
towards pickups.

13.(U) Pickup trucks are not produced solely for Thai
consumption. By the end of this year, Thailand will produce
over 400,000 CBU (Completely Built Units) for export. One
company, Ford-Mazda's partnership AutoAlliance Thailand,
produces 150,000 pickup trucks each year exporting 70
percent to 140 countries worldwide. As Thailand's domestic
manufacturing capacity grows beyond market demand, the
emphasis on export will continue to grow. In addition to
pickups, Thailand exports several other types of vehicles.
Of the 107,443 passenger cars produced from January-May
2005, nearly one third or 33,175 were exported for sale
abroad.
Economies of Scale and Flexible Platforms

14.(U) Several Thai auto executives have cited economies of
scale and flexible platforms as the keys to continued
success in Thai automotive production. Most automotive
corporations now employ flexible platforms whereby a single
platform can be used to produce several different models or
even various brands. Toyota's plants in Thailand,
Indonesia, Argentina, and South Africa use International
Innovative Multipurpose Vehicle (IMV) platforms to churn out
several different models of pickup trucks, minivans and SUVs
including the Fortuna, the Avanza, and the Innova. Having
one platform which produces several different models allows
automotive corporations to adjust their production based on
consumer demand and save money by designing and
manufacturing fewer platforms.

Competition from China and the Need for a Second Niche
Product

15.(SBU) The growing economy of China and recent heavy
investment in its automotive sector is a likely future
competitor to Thailand's automotive sector. In a business
based on economies of scale, the larger Chinese economy with
its lower labor costs is positioned to beat out Thailand as
a regional producer. A meeting of Thai auto parts suppliers
cited China's advantages in the automotive sector as wage,
demand, labor, and source of material. On the other hand,
Thailand's comparative advantages are information,
infrastructure, regulation, and government policy.
Unfortunately for Thailand, China's government could change
its policies, beef up infrastructure, and catch up to
Thailand in the other areas in which it lags. China also
has poor copyright laws. As a result, Chinese manufacturers
can copy the design of foreign models and compete based on
low price. While Thailand also has some gaps in its
enforcement of copyright protection, the laws are in place.
Perhaps auto IPR violations rarely occur in Thailand because
there are no domestic Thai auto manufacturers. However,
there is certainly opportunity for Thai auto parts makers to
produce copyrighted products. According to ArvinMeritor's
managing director, when legitimate auto parts firms learn of
an illegitimate source copying their products, they buy out
the illegitimate firm if their products are of good quality,
or seek legal action if they are not. The ArvinMeritor
representative said that counterfeits, in general, are a
rare occurrence.

The "EcoCar"

16.(U) To reach the goal of becoming an auto production hub
in the face of growing competition from China, the Thai auto
industry needed to develop a second product "champion"
besides the one-ton pickup truck. This product is the
small, economical and environmentally friendly "EcoCar," or
the S-car. The RTG had two objectives in developing the
EcoCar project: (1) Industrial Development Policy - need for
an additional niche-manufacturing product, and (2) Social
Policy - to produce an affordable, economical, small and
environmentally friendly vehicle. Heavy tax incentives
would give the EcoCar a strong foothold in the domestic
market, but the RTG also plans to export the EcoCar as
Thailand's second niche product after the one-ton pickup.

17.(U) According to specifications laid out by the RTG, the
EcoCar must contain at least 70 percent locally produced
materials. It also must meet the "ACES" criteria: Agile
(small),Clean (European Union 4 emission standards),
Economical (from 280,000 to 350,000 baht and fuel efficient
consuming 5 liters/100km or about 47 miles/gallon),and Safe
(ECE standards). The car's width cannot exceed 5.2 feet,
and maximum length is 11.8 feet.

18.(SBU) The RTG would like the EcoCar to be able to use
alternative fuels, such as ethanol or natural gas, to reduce
dependency on oil. Specifically, the RTG plans to have the
EcoCar use gasohol, a gasoline and ethanol blend in a nine-to-one
ratio. Using gasohol rather than regular gasoline reduces carbon
monoxide emissions by 17 percent (although emissions of nitrogen
oxide and volatile organic compounds are increased). The RTG
considers hybrid technology too expensive for the model to remain
low-cost. Some within the industry have suggested that the
emphasis on gasohol stems from a political-business interest - an
effort to increase income to farmers who would produce the raw
material for producing ethanol - rather than a strategy to use
the most environmentally friendly and economical fuel.

19.(SBU) Government approval for this project could come within
the next month giving the project an expected start date of
January 2007. With approval would come legal changes that give
the EcoCar a tax incentive system similar to the pickup truck.
However, the question on the mind of most analysts is whether the
RTG really wants to put another 100,000-200,000 cars onto the
notoriously crowded streets of Bangkok. Garnering outright
laughs from many audience members, Wallop of the TAI told an
industry meeting that the RTG thought that the EcoCar "would
reduce traffic jams by putting smaller cars on the road."

20.(SBU) The EcoCar Project is enthusiastically supported by
Honda, Daimler-Chrysler, GM, Suzuki, Mitsubishi, BMW, and
Yontraki (Kia),which already have models fitting the RTG's
standards. Toyota still opposes the project, as it does not have
a major model that fits the criteria. Toyota argues that the
body size restrictions hamper the development of future models.
Through its strong political connections - particularly through
its Thai partner, Siam Cement - Toyota could slow down or thwart
approval for the EcoCar project. In June, the RTG changed the
maximum width requirements from 5.2 feet to 5.3 feet to convince
Toyota to take part in the program. This change accommodates
Toyota's Aygo model, which was developed in partnership with
Peugeot for European markets. It is rumored that Toyota will not
be happy until the EcoCar scheme accommodates its popular Soluna
Vios and Yaris/Vitz hatchback models as well.

21.(SBU) Nissan and Ford are also lobbying for more commodious
EcoCar standards so their respective models can be included.
Isuzu, which only manufactures trucks in Thailand, and Volvo,
which does not have a compact model, firmly oppose the EcoCar
scheme as they stand to gain nothing from it.

Thailand's Auto Industry and FTAs

22.(SBU) Many in the auto sector are asking `how will
Thailand's spate of recent and future FTAs affect automotive
business'? As tariff barriers come down, many car producers
are interested in using Thailand as a regional hub thanks to
its low labor costs and well established manufacturing
chain. With regard to the Thai-U.S. FTA, American
automotive labor unions have expressed concern over whether
a reduction in the U.S.'s 25 percent tariff on pickup trucks
would lead to mass imports of pickup trucks from Thailand.

23.(SBU) Automotive manufacturers based in Thailand produce
one-ton pickup trucks on platforms that are also capable of
producing 1.5-ton pickups and SUVs. The 1.5-ton pickup is
the most popular selling model in the US, and is currently
produced exclusively in North America due to high tariffs
(from which Mexico and Canada are exempt through NAFTA).
Several automotive parts manufacturers based in Thailand say
they would be capable of accommodating a shift in production
to include the 1.5-ton model. However, producing for the
American market would require major adjustments in order to
meet American safety and technical standards.

24.(SBU) The chief obstacle in producing for the American
market would be the change in engines. All engines produced
in Thailand are 3.2 liter (or smaller) diesel engines,
whereas the American market prefers a 4-5 liter gasoline
engine. In addition, a major retooling of molds and
production lines would have to occur to accommodate the
larger model. Of the Thai automotive manufacturers, Toyota
seems to be particularly well positioned to switch to 1.5-
ton pickup production thanks to its IMV platform.

25.(SBU) One possible scenario is a division in production
of the various major components. For instance, automotive
companies could standardize their chassis, manufacture and
assemble the chassis and internals in Thailand, and ship the
partially built vehicle to North America where the engine
would be installed.

26.(SBU) In the end, automotive companies' decision to
produce 1.5-ton pickups in Thailand for the American market
would come down to a cost-benefit equation. The variables
would consist of the costs of retooling and setting up a new
engine supply chain versus the benefit of sales in the U.S.
with a tariff reduction. The degree to which the tariff is
reduced and how quickly it is reduced are major factors in
this equation.

The U.S.-Thai FTA: Little Opportunity for US Automakers and
Auto Parts Manufacturers

27.(SBU) Much of the talk surrounding auto issues in the
U.S.-Thai FTA has focused on the export of Thai-manufactured
vehicles to the U.S. In reality, only the Thai side of the
auto industry is expected to benefit from a drop in tariffs.
American auto parts suppliers face significantly higher
labor costs. U.S. auto parts prices are 10-20 percent
higher than Thai manufactured parts on simple stamp
components (which involve little labor) even when the price
of raw materials is comparable. Shipping costs and the time
component further disadvantage American suppliers. Several
major American manufacturers (GM, Ford, and Daimler-
Chrysler) already have manufacturing bases in Thailand, and
would not benefit from a reduced tariff on CBU vehicles.

Lessons Learned: The Impact of Other FTAs

28.(SBU) Thailand has recently signed FTAs with Australia
and India, which include clauses on automobiles or auto
parts. The automotive sector of Thailand has benefited from
both agreements just as the RTG hopes to gain from the FTAs
it is currently negotiating with the U.S. and Japan. The
Australia-Thailand FTA implemented on January 1, 2005
reduces Australian tariffs on Thai-made passenger cars from
15 percent to 0 percent, commercial vehicles from 5 percent
to 0 percent, and auto-parts from 15 percent to 0-5 percent.
Trade statistics from January to April 2005 show Thailand
taking advantage of less protection with an automotive
exports growth rate of 54.54 percent (from US $258.9 million
to US $400.1 million) over the same period in 2004. The FTA
also reduced the tariff from 80 percent to zero percent on
passenger cars with engine size exceeding 3000 CC imported
from Australia into Thailand. However, demand for large
vehicles in Thailand is low and the excise tax remains high.
Thus, producers such as GM and Ford in the Australian
automotive sector are discouraged from even trying to sell
their vehicles in Thailand.

29.(SBU) On August 1, 2005, Japan and Thailand reached a
basic accord on the terms of their FTA. Thailand agreed to
cut tariffs on Japanese cars with engines greater than 3000
cc by 5 percent per year (to 60 percent) until 2009, when
the next round of talks will continue. Initially, Japan
also wanted a reduction of tariffs on cars with engines
smaller than 3000 cc, but both parties have agreed to delay
the talks until 2009. A Ford Thailand executive told us he
pleased that Thailand protected its smaller cars as Malaysia
acquiesced to Japan's demands for the gradual removal of
tariffs on small cars in the Japan-Malaysia FTA.

30.(SBU) Non-Japanese carmakers have objected to the drop in
tariffs on vehicles with large engines even though the
Australian auto manufacturers have not benefited from this
liberalization in the Thai-Australia FTA. Some have
suggested that whereas Australian-manufactured autos (such
as the Holden (GM) and Ford Australia brands) are not sold
due to lack of brand recognition, Japanese luxury vehicles
such as Lexus would be popular in Thailand. As a result,
companies such as BMW, Daimler-Chrysler, and Volvo, who have
invested time and money in brand recognition in Thailand,
vehemently opposed any benefits for Japanese luxury cars.
European companies seem relieved that the tariff was not
completely dropped, going from 80 percent to 60% tariffs
over the next four years with further reductions to be
negotiated after five years. On August 2, Ford issued a
statement saying it was pleased that the tariff was only
partially reduced and not eliminated. It praised the RTG
for taking into account the concerns of non-Japanese
carmakers.

31.(U) Thailand and India reached a trade agreement on 84
items, 13 of which were auto parts. The agreement came into
effect September 1, 2004; Thailand's export of motor cars,
parts, and accessories to India rose from US $18.8 million
for the first four months of 2004 to US $26.6 million for
the same period in 2005.
32.(U) However, not everyone is comfortable with the
liberalization of Thailand's automotive sector. As Thailand
continues to sign bilateral agreements with global players,
the European Union Trade Commissioner has expressed concern
over losing out to trade diversion, particularly in the auto
sector, to Japan. China has chosen to avoid the matter for
the time being. During the Thai-China FTA negotiations,
China decided to take automotives off the table, deeming it
too sensitive an issue. The FTA with China covers selected
fruits and vegetables, but no industrial products. However,
an ASEAN-China FTA is in the works.

The Deal with Steel

33.(SBU) Japan is the top supplier of auto-grade (high
quality) steel to Thailand. According to executives from
Thai Summit Eastern Seaboard Auto Parts Industry and
ArvinMeritor, auto parts makers are facing a shortage of
high quality steel. They blame increased production in
China for driving up the price of steel and exacerbating the
shortage. Some auto parts makers without solid connections
to the Japanese steel industry have stated that they would
begin looking elsewhere for high quality steel, perhaps
Korea. In addition, some manufacturers are looking to
replace steel parts with those made from plastic. Items
typically made from steel, such as tailgates and back doors,
can now be replaced with high quality plastic injection
materials.

34.(SBU) Several auto parts producers suggested that the
strain of high steel costs could have been alleviated by the
Japan-Thai FTA. Japan's limited supply is sold at an
average tariff rate of 8 percent. Many were hoping that the
Japan-Thai FTA would completely eliminate this tariff.
However, Thai and Japanese negotiators decided to eliminate
tariffs only for steel that is unavailable or in short
supply in the local market. The tariffs on the remaining
types of steel will stay intact for 8-10 years. Curiously,
most within the auto sector did not seem disappointed with
this agreement. The GM representative, Khanchit Chaisupho,
said he was not surprised that the tariffs would not be
reduced for at least 8 years, but he viewed the possibility
of reduction as a positive sign. James Phillips from
ArvinMeritor did not seem very enthusiastic about the
possibility of tariff reduction, stating that the price cut
would go directly to the consumer, bringing down the overall
price of vehicles produced in Thailand and making them more
globally competitive. If global competition is indeed the
goal, it is surprising that automakers do not feel more
strongly about steel tariffs. The overall attitude of
companies is hopeful, but accompanied by low expectations.

The Internal Challenges of the Industry

35.(SBU) Currently, Thai auto parts suppliers are non-competitive
against their Korean, Indian, and Chinese counterparts due to
high overhead costs. James Phillips of ArvinMeritor explained
that Thai suppliers are able to survive thanks to the RTG's 20-33
percent tariff rate on imported auto parts. If the Thai FTAs
with China and India were expanded to allow auto parts and auto
parts inputs to be imported to Thailand, Thai suppliers would
face a sink-or-swim situation where cutting overheads would be
essential. Phillips believes that most Thai suppliers are
inefficient, unfamiliar with their costs, and accustomed to high
profit margins. Most are small, family-run operations with goals
of creating a nest egg for their family rather than building a
large corporation. Should they face competition from abroad,
lower profit margins and daily evaluation of costs would become
the norm for the companies that survive.

36.(SBU) In addition, Thailand needs to focus more on developing
human resources in order to fully utilize high technology
transfer. Auto suppliers are experiencing a dearth of Thai
engineers forcing them to hire from abroad from places like India
and China. If Thai auto parts suppliers want to survive
liberalization, they need to slim down the overhead costs and
improve engineering skills. The Japanese and Thai governments
have recently taken action on this problem by funding a 10-year
training program. Following the conclusion of the Japan-Thai FTA
on August 1, Japanese automakers based in Thailand announced
plans for a 10-year training program to educate 10,000 Thai
technical and managerial personnel. Both the Thai and Japanese
governments will fund the training, which will cover production
technology, die assembly, and engineering. Toyota, Honda,
Nissan, and Mitsubishi will send between 10-20 specialists to
Thailand each year to conduct the training. This further
investment in Thailand by the Japanese could be a reaction to
recent surges in anti-Japanese sentiment in China, which have
concerned Japanese investors in many sectors (including auto).

37.(SBU) Comment. The future years will bring several obstacles
for Thailand's automotive sector, most notably competition from
China. However, if Thailand can maintain its standing in the
automotive market through cutting overhead costs, developing a
second niche market, and continued supportive government
policies, it may be able to reach its goal as the regional hub
producer of cars and trucks.


38. Comment continued. The degree to which the Thai-U.S. FTA
affects American automotive producers and workers FTA depends on
the amount of the reduction of the pickup truck tariff. Thai
automotive manufacturers have the capacity to produce 1.5-ton
pickup trucks, but not without undergoing significant changes in
retooling and the production process. Automotive producers and
auto parts suppliers give the impression that if Thai
manufacturers do enter the U.S. market, it will be a gradual
process. ArvinMeritor reported that they had discussed their
clients' (AutoAlliance Thailand, GM, and BMW) future plans
through the year 2015 with no mention of retooling for export to
the U.S. Whether or not Japanese producers are willing to
undergo these changes is part of the larger cost benefit equation
of which the tariff reduction is a key component. End Comment.

An Industry Profile: The Major Players


39. Toyota
-240,000 CBUs produced annually, holds the largest share of
Thailand's domestic market
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1964
-Registered capital of US $188 million
-Employs over 5,000

Honda
-120,000 CBUs produced annually (40,000 exported to 30 countries,
including Japan)
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1983

Isuzu
-150,000+ CBUs produced annually
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1966
-Paid-up capital of US $212.5 million
-Employs 3,200

AutoAlliance Thailand (Ford-Mazda)
-150,000 CBUs annually (70 percent exported to 140 countries)
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1995
-US $500 million invested
-Employs 2,000

Mitsubishi
-100,000+ CBUs annually, Thailand's largest exporter to 139
countries
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1961
-Registered capital of US $403.6 million
-Employs 4,000
-Thailand is Mitsubishi's production base for pickup trucks

Nissan
-100,000 CBUs produced annually
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1960
-Employs 2,000

GM
-100,000 CBUs produced annually
-Manufacturing in Thailand since 1996

BMW
-Installed capacity of 6,000
-Established 2000
-Investment US $40 million
-Employs 290

Daimler-Chrysler Thailand
-Formed in 1998 with merger
-Registered capital of US $15 million
-Employs 270