SOUTHERN THAILAND VIOLENCE: THAKSIN AND ANAND

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 004901

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PTER TH
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN THAILAND VIOLENCE: THAKSIN AND ANAND
STATE THEIR CASES TO THE PUBLIC

REF: BANGKOK 4864


1. (SBU) Summary: Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) head and former
Prime Minister Anand Panyarachun traded views on the
Thailand's southern violence over national television on July
28 evening. They debated the root causes of the violence,
the new emergency ordinance, and next steps to take on the
present situation. Thaksin defended his national emergency
decree, stressing that its measures will be applied
cautiously and with safeguards. Anand stated that many
southern Thais regard the new ordinance with suspicion, and
question whether adequate safeguards are indeed in place.
Thaksin and Anand stated their respective cases forthrightly,
although both took the high road in their discussion. The
unusual joint television appearance is likely to trigger
further national debate on the government's approach to
solving the southern crisis. End Summary.

ROOTS OF THE SOUTH'S AGONY


2. (U) Thaksin declared that the perpetrators behind the
southern violence are using the old issue of an independent
Pattani and deliberate misinterpretation of Islamic
principles to recruit people, particularly lower-educated,
unemployed youths from the pondok schools. He estimated the
separatists' strength at about 10,000 -- not enough to defeat
the government but plenty to create problems. Thaksin said
that "influential groups," both political and criminal, such
as smugglers and drug traffickers, are also causes of the
violence in the region. The Prime Minister blamed Muslim
religious schools for placing too much emphasis on religious
studies and not enough on teaching marketable skills to
Muslim youth. He admitted though that the actions of some
government officials in the region contributed to fear and
mistrust among the population.


3. (U) Anand faulted the lack of understanding on the part
of government officials of the local populace's customs and
sentiments. There is considerable resentment against
government officials for their unjust treatment of local
Muslims and lack of respect for their culture, he charged.
Anand added that most people in the south do not support the
violent actions by the militants. He noted that 76 percent
of eligible voters in the southern region participated in the
last election -- higher than other regions and the national
average. The separatist movement may exist, but is small,
Anand said.

THE NEW EMERGENCY ORDINANCE


4. (U) Thaksin explained that the new emergency ordinance is
initially in place for 3 months, renewable with cabinet
approval. He noted that in accordance with the King's
instruction, the ordinance's measures will be implemented
cautiously and with respect to citizens' rights.


5. (U) Anand said that the NRC,s major concerns with the
ordinance include the state's broad power to arrest and
detain persons or suspects, limitations on press freedom, and
the exception from punishment and judiciary procedure for
state officials enacting measures under the emergency
ordinance. Anand said that the ordinance is viewed as a
potential "license to kill" for government officials. He
expressed concern that officials may not stay within the
limits -- the state must pursue its security function with
respect to the rules of law and human rights principles.
Those targeted by the measures of the ordinance must be the
actual instigators -- not innocent civilians, he warned.


6. (U) The Prime Minister said that the purpose of the
emergency ordinance is to integrate various provisions that
already exist in various laws. As for the NRC's concerns,
Thaksin pointed out that court warrants will be needed in the
arrests of suspects. In the case of media restrictions, the
relevant articles in the ordinance will not be used -- the
government may just warn the media, but will not close them.
However, Thaksin said, the government may prohibit the
distribution of violent, distorted VCDs in the south, such as
those showing beheadings in Iraq. Regarding immunity for
officials accused of wrongdoing in carrying out measures of
the ordinance, Thaksin said that if they could not prove that
they had acted in self-defense and without malice, they would
not be immune from sanction.

WHERE TO?


7. (U) Thaksin said the government will focus on the
development of education and economics, as well as increasing
employment in the south. He claimed that the government is
currently seeking some 200 separatist suspects in the region.
He maintained that the current southern problem is
Thailand's domestic issue, not a religious conflict -- and
that there is still no sign of foreign involvement. (Note:
Anand concurred with the PM on this point.) Thaksin urged
more public cooperation with the security forces and insisted
that the rule of law and human rights will be observed during
the implementation of the emergency ordinance.


8. (U) Anand responded that the NRC is not the government's
enemy, but at the same time it will not be a mouthpiece for
the government, either. The NRC and the government will work
in parallel, Anand said. The NRC will continue its work, but
expects no more "surprises" from the government, as was the
case with the emergency ordinance. He said that Thaksin must
explain his administration's security measures to the
international community and the UN. He cautioned again that
violent practices by the security services must not be
employed to solve the southern problem.

9. (SBU) Comment: The televised discussion between Thaksin
and Anand did not cause any pyrotechnics as some observers
had predicted. Rather, both presented their cases matter of
faculty -- Thaksin's emphasizing that his new emergency
ordinance would not be applied arbitrarily, and Anand
stressing that the government must take measures to address
deeply rooted mistrust and resentment among southern Thai
Muslims. Thaksin probably helped his administration's cause
by affirming that citizens' rights will be implemented as the
provisions of the emergency decree are carried out. He also
won some points by not losing his cool. But it is unlikely
that Thaksin's many critics found his assurances convincing.
End Comment.
BOYCE