CONFIDENT OPPOSITION LEADER SENSES THAKSIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004646

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV TH
SUBJECT: CONFIDENT OPPOSITION LEADER SENSES THAKSIN
VULNERABILITY, BUT SEES HARD WORK AHEAD

REF: (A) BANGKOK 4596 (B) BANGKOK 4367 (C) BANGKOK

4238 (D) BANGKOK 3208

Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE. REASON: 1.4(D)


1. (C) Summary. Ambassador met with opposition leader and
Democrat Party (DP) head Abhisit Vejjajiva over tea on July

14. This was not the dispirited Abhisit we had met with in
the wake of his party's shattering defeat at the hands of
Prime Minister Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) juggernaut
earlier this year (ref. D). This time the opposition leader
exuded quiet confidence during a wide-ranging discussion as
he enumerated Thaksin's recent reverses and described his own
party's need to rebuild its popular base around the country.
Abhisit said that Thaksin's spending policies and ham-fisted
actions in Thailand's south were causing a steady dissipation
of his public support. That said, Abhisit acknowledged that
to successfully challenge the TRT in the future, the DP had
to build its base in the north and northeast parts of the
country as well in Bangkok. End Summary.

OPPOSITION LEADER WITH POSITIVE PUBLIC IMAGE


2. (SBU) The charismatic Abhisit is one of the strongest
assets of his party. He was accompanied by party Deputy
Secretary General Korn Chatikananjii and MP Sirichoke Sopha

SIPDIS
-- both young, articulate and considered up-and-comers within
the DP hierarchy. The general election defeat earlier this
year of former DP leader Banyat Bantadtan signaled to many
here the end of the old guard and brought about Abhisit's
appointment to the helm of the party. Abhisit had led his
party in a spirited clash with Transport Minister and TRT
stalwart Suriya and his advisors in a recent Parliamentary
censure debate over the CTX controversy (ref. C). Although
the DP's defeat in the ensuing censure vote was a foregone
conclusion because of the DP's 96-seat minority in the 500
seat assembly, Abhisit's performance won him points with a
Thai public grown more disenchanted over the issue of
corruption by the current government.

ABHISIT SEES GROWING ECONOMIC WOES FOR THAILAND UNDER THAKSIN


3. (C) When asked for his read of Thaksin's current
economic problems, Abhisit said that Thaksin's policies, not
external forces were the main causes of Thailand's slowdown.
He blamed the Prime Minister's spending practices, both for
populist-style programs such as universal cheap health care
access as well as large infrastructure projects as fueling
inflation and building current account deficits. Rising
diesel prices are magnifying these policy-made economic
problems, Abhisit added. Deriding Thaksin's recent
announcement of civil-service raises, Abhisit opined that the
amounts would do little to improve living standards but would
contribute to existing inflationary pressures.

HARSH POLICIES IN SOUTH NOT WORKING AND CAUSING THAKSIN LOSS
OF SUPPORT


4. (C) Ambassador asked Abhisit if the Prime Minister's
personnel changes, security tactics and the formation of the
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) several months ago
were showing any progress. After all, the Ambassador pointed
out, Thaksin's critics had advocated for a more wide-ranging
dialogue and less heavy-handed tactics against the local
inhabitants. Abhisit shook his head, saying that he saw "no
progress, no coherence" in resolving the crisis in the
southern border provinces. Sirichoke, a representative from
the southern province of Songkhla, said that he was deeply
worried over what he sees as a worsening Buddhist-Muslim
divide in his constituency. Abhisit added that no matter
what the NRC recommends to improve civilian-government
relations in the region, police and military "violence" will
continue and will further alienate the very people that the
RTG needs to win over.


5. (C) Rather than backing off from his harsh security
policies in the region, Thaksin has allowed security
personnel to run unchecked, according to Abhisit and
Sirichoke. "In the past the police caused people to
disappear," Abhisit alleged, "now they kill suspected
separatists and others openly." Abhisit and Korn argued that
the Prime Minister had lost interest in the southern
provinces and had essentially turned over the problem (and
potential blame) to the NRC while continuing his harsh
security policies -- "a violent gamble," Abhisit said. The
continuing violence is hurting Thaksin with the Thai public
and will continue to drain popular support from the Prime
Minister. (Note: Ambassador's conversation with Abhisit took
place the day before the Cabinet announced new powers given
to the Prime Minister to deal with the violence in the deep
south. End note.) (ref. A)

ABHISIT FEARS PM MAY ANNOUNCE NEW OFFENSIVE AGAINST DRUGS


6. (C) Claiming that the most popular policy of Thaksin's
was his brutal "war on drugs," Abhisit stated that he was
fearful that the Prime Minister, mindful of his eroding
public support over the economy and the south, may in a fit
of desperation announce a new anti-narcotics offensive.
"Drugs are back on the streets," Abhisit alleged, and went on
to predict that Thaksin, not wanting to lose his one popular
"accomplishment," would begin anew the police violence
against drug suspects. Abhisit maintained that Thaksin may
go so far as to blame foreign pressure for the failure of his
earlier campaign to permanently eradicate narcotics
trafficking in Thailand. Rather than allowing his police to
shoot suspected traffickers under very questionable
circumstances, Abhisit argued, the Prime Minister needed to
establish more retraining and rehabilitation centers for
addicts.

WITH ALL HIS CURRENT HEADACHES, THAKSIN STILL DOMINATES THE
SCENE -- ABHISIT DETERMINED TO CHANGE THAT

7. (C) When Ambassador asked about the DP's own intentions,
Abhisit and his advisors readily admitted that their party
has a lot of work to do - especially in TRT strongholds of
the North and Northeast and vote-rich Bangkok. Abhisit and
Sirichoke pointed to a recent poll that, while not showing a
decisive swing towards the DP, did indicate an increased
level of public support moving to their party. "In the last
election we were weak," Abhisit admitted. But with Thaksin's
ongoing troubles and a determined campaign by a new party
leadership to expand its base and take on the Prime Minister
over issues such as corruption, economic mismanagement and
failed policies in the south, the DP feels it is on an upward
trend. Abhisit said that the Party is currently in the midst
of a nationwide membership drive headed by party
Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban.

SIPDIS


8. (C) Korn (not surprisingly) opined that the DP is a
different party than TRT -- more interested in the long-term
interests of Thailand. "Thaksin is not an idealist," Abhisit
emphasized. Ambassador raised the issue of Thaksin's
motives. Doesn't the Prime Minister have any vision of
making Thailand a better place for the Thai people and not
simply seeking office for power and profit? No, Abhisit
stressed. Maybe in part, allowed Korn, but his idealistic
urges are overwhelmed by his instincts as a businessman.
Abhisit added that, apart from striving to keep his party
factions happy, the cynical Thaksin constantly shuffles his
cabinet so that ministers vulnerable to censure for
corruption or incompetence are no longer in office when the
time comes to debate their activities.


9. (C) Referring to that day's splashy opening by the Prime
Minister of the TRT's large new high-tech headquarters in
Bangkok, Abhisit joked that the Prime Minister is pushing
hard to make the TRT a permanent institution. Ambassador
asked him what role the 1997 Constitution played in enabling
Thaksin to hold such power over his party. Abhisit replied
that Thaksin used the articles in the first half of the
Constitution -- which included provisions to restrict
party-hopping and thus strengthened the PM's hand -- and
ignored the second half relating to the establishment of
neutral commissions to monitor the government's activities.
In the latter case, Abhisit referred to the recent passage of
a constitutional amendment that stipulated the inclusion of
party MPs in the selection committee of the National Counter
Corruption Commission. (ref B.)

ABHISIT COMMENTS ON US-THAI RELATIONS -- CTX, COUNTER
TERRORISM AND FTA


10. (C) Abhisit acknowledged that the whole CTX issue,
involving allegations of bribery connected with the sale of
American airport security screening equipment to Thailand,
would not have come under public scrutiny without U.S.
assistance. Referring to Thai Muslims, Abhisit cautioned
that the U.S. should not allow its war on terror to be
mistakenly perceived as a war on Islam. Abhisit also noted
that the Thai public is sensitive to the outcome of the FTA
discussions between Thailand and the United States. There is
a fear that Thailand will be on the losing end. Ambassador
reminded Abhisit -- and he strongly agreed -- that the Thai
need more transparency on their side when it comes to the
government reporting on the substance and status of the
negotiations. That would do much to reduce any public unease
over the discussions.

ABHISIT AND DP SEE AN OPENING


11. (C) Comment: This was a new and confident Democrat
Party leadership compared to our meeting earlier this year.
Abhisit and his advisors perceive Thaksin as beginning to
reap the results of profligate spending policies and a
cavalier approach to the long-term southern crisis. If they
appeared to sense political blood in the water, they also
seemed to harbor few illusions over the tough job they have
ahead. Behind their often sarcastic comments about Thaksin's
political insensitivities was their acknowledgment that the
PM is a tough political operator with formidable political
and financial resources. The opposition appears to have
regrouped, and seems prepared to adopt a long-range approach
while seizing any tactical initiative, such as challenging
any misstep by the Prime Minister (especially corruption
charges where he is somewhat vulnerable) and keeping the
issues before the Thai public.









BOYCE