THAILAND: NRC HEAD ANAND PANYARACHUN DISCUSSES

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004108

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, INR
PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) - PACOM PASS MARFORPAC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2015
TAGS: PREL PTER PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: NRC HEAD ANAND PANYARACHUN DISCUSSES
THE SOUTH

REF: A. BANGKOK 3203


B. BANGKOK 1008

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (c,d,e)


1. (S) SUMMARY: On June 15, the Ambassador met with Anand
Panyarachun -- the highly respected former Prime Minister and
current head of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC)
-- to discuss the ongoing unrest in southern Thailand and
Anand's role in RTG's efforts to end the violence. Anand
complained Prime Minister Thaksin is still not showing
adequate leadership in dealing with the South. He expressed
serious concern over rising tensions between the Buddhist and
Muslim communities in the South and suggested that the
pervasive rumors of U.S. involvement in the violence could
have serious implications for both the U.S. and Thai
governments. Anand said that problems in the South are
rooted in the lack of respect accorded to ethnically Malay
Muslims and the absence of the rule of law in the region. In
his view, long term solutions to the violence will require
Thai bureaucratic reform, improved relations with Muslims
countries, and educational reform. END SUMMARY


2. (SBU) On June 15 the Ambassador called on former Prime
Minister Anand Panyarachun to discuss the ongoing unrest in
southern Thailand and his role in the RTG's efforts to stop
the violence. Anand, perhaps Thailand's most widely
respected elder statesman, was called out of retirement in
March 2005 by Prime Minister to lead the National
Reconciliation Commission (NRC) which has been charged with
finding solutions to the unrest in the far Southern Muslim
majority provinces of Thailand.

THAKSIN: A FAILURE OF LEADERSHIP


3. (S) Anand suggested that Prime Minister Thaksin is not
prepared to assume the leadership role required to lead a
peace process, and worried that the RTG's failure to manage
the immediate security situation would impact his own ability
to find long-term solutions. He commented that Thaksin was
using the media's focus on Anand as an excuse for inaction.
Anand further complained that Thaksin's limited understanding
of the complex historical factors hindered the Prime
Minister's ability to address the problem, dismissively
saying, "he doesn't read anything, unless it has to do with
pursuing profits."


4. (C) Anand said he would meet with Thaksin on June 16 --
only the second time he has met face to face with the Prime
Minister since Thaksin asked him to lead the NRC in March.
Anand did acknowledge that Thaksin had lived up to his
agreement that the NRC would be completely independent -- and
had gone out of his way to publicly and privately praise
Anand. However, unlike other issues where Thaksin trumpets
his "CEO style," the Prime Minister still refuses to be
decisive when in comes to the South. Anand said that in
order for the reconciliation process to be successful,
Thaksin will have to demonstrate that he is clearly in
command. "I'm not the second Prime Minister; Thaksin has to
manage the day to day requirements."

CONCERN ABOUT RELATIONS BETWEEN BUDDHISTS AND MUSLIMS


5. (C) Anand expressed his deep concern over deteriorating
relations between the Buddhist and Muslim communities on the
ground in the South, noting that extremists are trying to pit
Buddhists against Muslims (Ref B) and have created "a climate
of fear" that is causing Buddhists to flee the region. Anand
said he is particularly worried about deteriorating
conditions in Narathiwat province, saying that extremists are
threatening both Buddhists and moderate Muslims.


6. (C) Anand said the failure of RTG security forces to
distinguish between moderate Muslims and the extremist hard
core bent on violence was antagonizing the larger Muslim
population and encouraging the perception that the conflict
is between Buddhists and Muslims. He said the government
must be able to explain that this situation in the South is a
conflict within the Muslim community between moderates and
extremists, and not between the Buddhists and Muslims.

U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE SOUTH: THE RUMORS ARE WIDELY BELIEVED



7. (S) Anand spent a significant portion of the meeting
discussing the troubling and widely believed rumors in
Thailand about the direct involvement of the U.S. Government,
and particularly U.S. intelligence, in the South (Ref A).
Anand described rumors in the South of the CIA's involvement
as "pervasive." He claimed that he had been informed by
several sources that U.S. operatives are working with
"unsavory" elements of RTG intelligence involved in
extra-judicial killings; "I'm concerned the CIA is talking to
the wrong people."


8. (S) Anand said stories are circulating in the South that
the U.S. orchestrated the April 3, 2005 triple-bombings in
Songkhla province -- which included the attack on the Hat Yai
International Airport. Anand indicated this issue had
serious implications for both the U.S. and Thailand. The
Ambassador refuted the claims of U.S. involvement, but agreed
that the climate of rumors was potentially harmful to the
bilateral relationship. He suggested that Anand receive a
briefing on U.S. activities in southern Thailand in order to
be able to refute the allegations when confronted with them.
(Comment: We will be briefing Anand on June 24. In the
interim, he called the Ambassador to clarify that the rumors
were more about "FBI involvement" than CIA. In any event, we
will endeavor to deal with all of this on Friday. End
Comment.)

LACK OF RESPECT/RULE OF LAW, NOT SEPARATISM


9. (C) Anand said there are many overlapping root causes
behind the violence and cautioned against overemphasizing the
importance of separatism as the central factor. He said that
it is instructive to note that 73 percent of southerners
participated in the February 2005 general election (voting
overwhelmingly against Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party),
which proved that most southerners want to work through the
Thai system. While most southerners don't want or expect
autonomy -- in fact there is no Thai word for autonomy --
many Thai Muslims do feel that they have been marginalized by
Thai society and have been neglected by the Thai government
for decades, according to Anand.


10. (C) Anand admitted that most Thais had negative -- even
racist -- attitudes toward southern Malay Muslims, and this
lack of respect towards Malays was a fundamental part of the
problem. The second major factor is a lack of rule of law in
the South created by the arbitrary actions of RTG security
forces. Addressing the basic issues of respect and rule of
law are crucial factors will be central to any solution, he
said.

FINDING SOLUTIONS: START WITH THE BUREAUCRACY, EDUCATION


11. (C) One of the major impediments to the RTG's efforts
to effectively manage the day-to-day security issues of the
South is the lack of coordination between different
ministries. Anand said that this problem of "stove-piping"
extends to the highest levels of the RTG. Anand noted that
the primary cabinet ministers focused on the South -- Deputy
Prime Minister Jaturon Chaisaeng, Interior Minister Chitchai
Wannasathi and Minister of Defense Tammarack Itsarangkun na
Ayutthayaat -- are accustomed to receiving their orders
directly from the Prime Minister, and operating
independently. Anand said that his first recommendation is
for Thaksin to create an informal cabinet committee -- to
include operational level officials -- in order to better
coordinate.


12. (C) Anand, while agreeing that Thaksin has shifted
towards a more conciliatory approach to the southern dilemma,
lamented that security forces on the ground had not "gotten
the message" and were continuing the abusive, corrupt, and
violent practices of the past. These daily injustices by
security forces and the actions of incompetent civilian
officials reinforce the contempt felt by southerners towards
the central government. He opined that changing attitudes
and actions of Thai security forces and recruiting higher
caliber officials for the South will be a huge challenge for
the RTG.


13. (C) Anand noted that one of the primary problems facing
the South is the education system, agreeing that educational
reform should be the primary part of any solution. He said
the RTG's adversarial approach to the "pondok" Islamic
schools only alienated southerners. Anand said the RTG
should draw on the successful efforts in other countries with
Islamic schools and that he will recommend that the
government work with the pondoks to increase educational
opportunities.

WORKING WITH THE NEIGHBORS AND THE OIC


14. (C) Anand opined that Foreign Minister Kantathi
Suphamongkhon has gotten off to a good start on the
international aspects of the southern situation and correctly
reached out to the Malaysians to repair a crucial
relationship damaged by recent Thaksin missteps. Anand noted
that the Thai and Malaysian governments still have a large
degree of mutual suspicion and lingering resentment from the
period when Malaysia was facing its communist insurgency. He
cited this mutual suspicion as a key factor behind the lack
of better coordination on the border. Anand said that
besides Malaysia, Thailand needs to better engage with
Singapore and Indonesia about the South.


15. (C) Anand said that Kantathi would expand efforts to
reach out to the larger Muslim world; noting the Foreign
Minister would travel to Yemen to participate in the
Organization of The Islamic Conferences (OIC) Foreign
Ministers meeting later this month. Anand said his own
recent meetings with an OIC delegation visiting Thailand had
been positive, noting the RTG has a "compelling" need to stay
in regular contact with the OIC.

COMMENT


16. (S) Comment: Anand has previously shown a deep
personal distaste for Thaksin, whom he considers to be
arrogant, arriviste and too anxious to control all the levers
in Thai society. He clearly is wary of being used as
political cover by the Prime Minister and worried that he
will not get the actual cooperation from Thaksin that would
be necessary to make his work with the NRC more than just an
exercise. End Comment.
BOYCE