THAILAND: STAFFDEL JANUZZI VISIT TO FAR SOUTH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002351

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV. HQ US PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO). SEOUL
FOR AMBASSADOR HILL.

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2014
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER TH NRC
SUBJECT: THAILAND: STAFFDEL JANUZZI VISIT TO FAR SOUTH

REF: A. BANGKOK 2255


B. BANGKOK 1008

C. 04 BANGKOK 8377

D. 04 BANGKOK 7171

E. 04 BANGKOK 6647

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert J. Clarke. Reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: On March 28-29, Senate Foreign Relations
Committee professional staff member Frank Januzzi visited
Thailand's southernmost Muslim majority provinces. Januzzi
spoke with a variety of interlocutors and heard local views
on the origins and nature of the continuing unrest, cautious
assessments about the prospects for success of the newly
appointed National Reconciliation Commission (NRC),concerns
about the deteriorating relations between the Buddhist and
Muslim communities, and local assessments that offers of U.S.
assistance could be counterproductive. END SUMMARY


2. (C) On March 28-29 Senate Foreign Relations Committee
professional staff member Frank Januzzi visited Thailand's
far southern provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla
as part of an effort to understand the ongoing violence in
the region. Januzzi met with several local journalists,
leaders of the Narathiwat Islamic Committee (NIC),Muslim
academics from Prince of Songkhla University - Pattani and
the Pattani Vice Governor for Security. Embassy Bangkok
Poloff accompanied Januzzi on his visit.

UNDERSTANDING THE CURRENT VIOLENCE - WE'VE BEEN HERE BEFORE


3. (C) Many of Januzzi's interlocutors pointed out the
importance of keeping the violence in southern Thailand in
context because, as members of the Narathiwat Islamic
Committee (NIC) emphasized, separatist related violence has
been occurring in southern Thailand for over 100 years. At
Prince of Songkhla University (PSU) Dr. Ibrahem
Narongraksaket, the head of the Islamic Affairs Division,
said he is greatly concerned about the current level of
violence. He emphasized, however, that some level of
violence is inevitable in southern Thailand given the
historical and ethnic realities of the region. Pattani based
journalist Paret Lohansen agreed that while there is a
current upsurge of violence, it is important to bear in mind
that conflict between local ethnically Malay-Thais and the
central Thai government has been going on in the South for
several generations.

WHY HAS THE VIOLENCE INCREASED IN THE SOUTH?


4. (C) The Deputy Chairmen of the NIC told Jannuzzi that
they believe that the recent cycle of violence in the south
originated with Prime Minister Thaksin's anti-narcotics
campaign in early 2003. They said that locals seeking
revenge for extra-judicial killings and arbitrary arrests by
police entered into a cycle of violence. They say the cycle
of revenge and government retribution was reinforced after
the mass arrests of local Muslims following the armory raid
in January, 2004 and the Tak Bai incident in October, 2004,
in which 78 Muslim detainees died from suffocation while
being transported to an Army camp. They believe this cycle
will continue, given the deep animosity felt by many young
Muslims in the South towards Thai security forces.


5. (C) Waeda-o Harai, a respected local journalist, blamed
Thaksin administration bungling for increasing violence in
the region. He said the government has steadfastly ignored
sensible local solutions while focusing on a security-based
approach. He opined that the heavy RTG security presence is
increasing the local populace's estrangement from the
government. Chaiyong Manerrungsakul, Chairman of the
Southern Thailand Journalist Association, agreed that the
RTG's "security first" approach was fueling the violence.
Chaiyong said that the imposition of martial law in
particular is increasing local resentment of the central
government.


6. (C) Dr. Ibrahem said the number of actual militants
committed to violence in the South is very small. Ibrahem
believes that the militants have still not been able to
convince the general population to support them. However,
government abuses under martial law reinforce feelings of
"injustice" widely felt by local Muslims, opening them to
greater sympathy towards the radicals (reftel E). Ibrahem
said economic factors are not behind the violence (reftel B).
He noted that southern Thailand, unlike other areas of the
world experiencing intra-communal strife, does not have
problems with limited natural resources, widespread
unemployment or hunger. At the heart of resentment is the
local population's deeply felt feeling of "injustice" by the
central government.

LUKEWARM ENDORSEMENT OF THE NRC


7. (C) Januzzi and poloff found most local observers
cautiously optimistic about the likely success of the
National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) (reftel A). The
journalist Waeda-o said that many people in the south were
hopeful about the NRC, but are concerned that local Muslims
are underrepresented. The Narathiwat Islamic Committee (NIC)
members approved of the NRC's mission (NOTE: Abduraman
Abdulsamad, the NIC Chairman, was selected as an NRC member)
and are hopeful that the commission will develop effective
strategies. The NIC also believes, however, that southern
Muslims are underrepresented on the commission. The
journalist Paret is not optimistic about the success of Anand
Panyarachun's NRC, even with the respected former prime
minister at its helm. He noted that many studies on the
south have been commissioned in the past but recommendations
have never been implemented by the government.

BUDDHIST AND MUSLIM RELATIONS -- GETTING WORSE


8. (C) Staffdel Januzzi heard concerns reported in past
Embassy visits to the far South (reftels C,D,E) that
relations between the Buddhist and Muslim communities are
deteriorating. NIC members acknowledged that relations
between the Buddhist and Muslim communities were not as good
as they were in the past. They blamed government security
forces for increasing divisions between the communities by
acting as if they were on the ground only to protect
Buddhists.


9. (C) The journalists Paret and Chaiyong reported that
they continue to hear steady anecdotal reports of ethnic
Chinese-Thai and Buddhist-Thais leaving the south. Chaiyong
noted that many non-Muslim families were using the current
break in school terms to remove their children from schools
in the three southernmost provinces. Chaiyong said that the
top non-Islamic primary school in Narathiwat province only
had 16 student enrolled for the next term.

HOW CAN THE U.S. HELP? -- BY NOT HELPING


10. (C) Staffdel Januzzi inquired about possible assistance
the U.S. government could provide to help resolve the
situation in southern Thailand, and was repeatedly told that
most forms of U.S. assistance would be counterproductive.
The journalist Paret noted the strong and widely held belief
in the South that the U.S. was somehow fomenting the violence
for its own ends (reftels). Paret said that any U.S.
assistance, no matter how benign, would reinforce the rumors
of U.S. involvement.


11. (C) Prasit Meksuwan, Secretary-General of the Teachers
Confederation of Southern Thailand, and a member of the NRC,
echoed these concerns. He suggested that the best way the
U.S. can help in the south is by maintaining our distance.
He suggested that the way the U.S. can build credibility with
southern Muslims is by continuing to challenge the Thaksin
government publicly over egregious human rights abuses. He
noted that Muslims in the South were greatly appreciative of
the latest U.S. Human Rights Report (HRR) which "bravely"
addressed recent abuses by the RTG. He suggested that the
U.S. translate the HRR into the local "Yawi" dialect to allow
for widespread dissemination.


12. (U) Staffdel Januzzi did not have an opportunity to
clear this message.
ARVIZU