Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BANGKOK2322
2005-04-01 07:05:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAILAND: THAKSIN SIGNALS SHIFT IN SOUTH POLICY

Tags:  PGOV PREL TH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS BANGKOK 002322 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV. HQ USPACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: THAKSIN SIGNALS SHIFT IN SOUTH POLICY

REF: BANGKOK 2255

UNCLAS BANGKOK 002322

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/BCLTV. HQ USPACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: THAKSIN SIGNALS SHIFT IN SOUTH POLICY

REF: BANGKOK 2255


1. (SBU) Summary: On March 30, Prime Minister Thaksin,
speaking to a joint session of parliament, surprised the
political establishment by suggesting that the RTG would take
a less security focused approach towards Thailand's troubled
far south. Thaksin's conciliatory tone, with statements such
as "violence only begets violence," is a dramatic shift away
from past tough talk about the south. On March 31, Thaksin
indicated that troops would have a less visible presence in
the South, but would not, as some reports had indicated, be
withdrawn. Thaksin's conciliatory speech, and the recent
formation of a National Reconciliation Commission, or NRC
(reftel),are positive developments for a region that has
received or produced only bad news of late. However,
Thaksin's promise to use a less security focused approach
might meet with some internal resistance from Thai security
forces. End Summary.


2. (SBU) On March 30, Prime Minister Thaksin addressed a
rare joint session of parliament. He had convoked the
special session to debate the violence-plagued far south of
Thailand. Thaksin, showing uncharacteristic humility,
admitted to policy missteps in the region, "I am now
determined to undo what I have done wrong in the past." The
Prime Minister also backed down from his usual tough
rhetoric, agreeing with critics that a less security focused
approach was called for, "violence only breeds violence" he
said.


3. (SBU) Thaksin was also surprisingly conciliatory towards
opposition leader Aphisit Vejjajiva, saying the Democrat
Party leader's views on the South "are mostly consistent with
my thinking." Continuing his praise for his main political
rival Thaksin said, "I admire your presentation and accept
all your 9-point proposed approach to the southern unrest for
further implementation." (Note: The 9-point Democrat plan
calls for the government to: 1) cancel plans to withhold
government development funding from "red zone" villages
blamed for harboring militants; 2) increase development
projects; 3) name a civilian official, vice military, to
coordinate regional government programs; 4) compensate
victims of the violence; 5) improve the southern economy; 6)
improve education in the South; 7) encourage local officials
to learn about Islamic culture; 8) allow international
organizations to access the South to help; 9) follow the
advice of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC). End
Note.)


4. (SBU) Thaksin also reiterated his public endorsement of
the 48-member National Reconciliation Commission which, under
the leadership of Anand Panyarachun, a highly respected and
politically independent former Prime Minister, is tasked with
developing policy recommendations for the troubled south.
Thaksin said, "I would like to see it use its independent
role, offer diverse views and dimensions, and I confirm full
governmental support and readiness to respond to its
requests."


5. (SBU) Speaking to reporters on March 31, Thaksin seemed
to indicate that troops would be "withdrawn" from the far
south as part of the government's new strategy. He said
"adjustments are imminent." However, the military was quick
to clarify that "adjustments" did not mean that actual troop
levels would be reduced in the south; instead troops would
have a less visible presence, or would work on civil-military
projects instead of security missions only. General Sirichai
Tunyasiri, who heads the Southern Border Provinces
Peace-building Command (SBPPC) and acts as the coordinator
for all Thai security forces in the region, said that troops
would be repositioned in the South, but "absolutely will not
be pulled out of the region."


7. (SBU) Comment: Thaksin's assuaging remarks in front of
both houses of Parliament are a welcome change from past
rhetoric or inflammatory off-the-cuff remarks about the
south. The Prime Minister's apparent new policy flexibility
on the south, coupled with the appointment of the politically
independent NRC, are positive signs that the administration
may be learning from the policy failures of the last two
years. However, if he tries to move too far away from a
security-based strategy for the South, Thaksin could face
internal resistance from hard-liners within the RTG security
forces. This seems to be the implication of the rapid
clarification by the SBPPC that no troops would actually be
withdrawn from the troubled far south. End Comment.
ARVIZU