Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BANGKOK1528
2005-03-02 14:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Bangkok
Cable title:  

THAILAND: SOUTH DEVELOPMENTS UPDATE, MARCH 2, 2005

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER TH 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001528 

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, S/CT. US PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: SOUTH DEVELOPMENTS UPDATE, MARCH 2, 2005

REF: BANGKOK 1375

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason: 1.4(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001528

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, S/CT. US PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/01/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: SOUTH DEVELOPMENTS UPDATE, MARCH 2, 2005

REF: BANGKOK 1375

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason: 1.4(d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Thai Government has moved rapidly
away from Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's controversial
plan to allocate economic assistance based on the color coded
security ratings of villages in the southern border
provinces. In the face of broad condemnation of the zoning
scheme, and with serious violence still occurring on a daily
basis, Thaksin is now focusing on creation of a National
Reconciliation Commission (NRC),headed by former Prime
Minister Anand Panyarachun. Separately, 25 Members of
Parliament, tasked by Thaksin to seek solutions to the
southern crisis, made a one day visit to the south. Southern
Muslims are skeptical about the purposes of the visit.
Finally, a public speech by Privy Councilor Prem, during
which he urged the government to follow a "royal approach" to
the south, appears to have gotten Thaksin's attention. END
SUMMARY

NO "ZONES" IN THE SOUTH AFTER ALL, INSTEAD "RECONCILIATION"


2. (SBU) Prime Minister Thaksin appears to be retreating
quickly from his February 16 announcement that the RTG would
cut off government funding for "red" zone villages which the
government believed were supporting militants because of a
high level of violence in surrounding areas. The plan has
been roundly criticized in Thailand for its potential to
further alienate the local population in the deep South. In
an apparent attempt to back away from the announced program
Thaksin's spokesman, Jakrapob Penkair, told the media on
February 25 that the allocation or denial of assistance funds
based on the classification of villages into green, yellow
and red zones was merely a "concept," and not yet a policy.

3. (U) The zoning scheme dropped out of the news when the
Thaksin administration sharply shifted its focus to creation
of a National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) to look for
ways to address the conflict in the south. On February 28,
Thaksin announced that the government was establishing a
30-member commission to examine long-term solutions to the
crisis. Thaksin tapped former prime minister Anand

Panyarachun to lead the commission. (Note: Anand is one of
the most respected public figures in Thailand. He was twice
appointed interim prime minister in 1991-92 during the
political crisis stemming from the 1991 coup. He recently
chaired a UN High-level Commission on Reform. End Note.)
Thaksin said he wanted a diverse group of participants on the
commission, even naming several of the most vocal critics of
his southern policy as possible members.


4. (U) Anand is now recruiting commission members. The
panel will reportedly include representatives from state
agencies, academia, NGOs, politicians (including members of
the opposition Democratic Party) and religious leaders.
Anand will serve as the NRC Chairman with Bavornasak Uvanno,
a close Thaksin confidant and current cabinet secretary
general, serving as the NRC's secretary-general. Other
possible commission members who have been discussed include
the noted social critic Dr. Prawase Wasi; Phiphop Thongchai,
a prominent human rights activist; and Surichai Wankaew,
Chairman of the NGO Campaign for Popular Democracy.


5. (SBU) The opposition Democrat Party (DP) has taken a
cooperative stance towards the creation of the commission.
Abhisit Vejjajiva, who has taken the reigns of the party
following the DPs drubbing at the polls during the February 6
nationwide elections, confirmed that his party would be
willing to cooperate with the NRC. Abhisit told visiting NIO
Dr. James Shinn and Poloff on March 2 that he expected former
Prime Minister Anand would play an important role in solving
the southern problem and said that he was looking for more
details on the commission's structure, membership, and
mission. Former Prime Minister and DP elder statesman Chuan
Leekpai also welcomed the commission, offering his
cooperation.

PARLIAMENT TAKES ON THE SOUTH


6. (U) Thaksin also dispatched 25 Thai Rak Thai (TRT) MPs,
under the leadership of Deputy Prime Minister Suwat
Liptaphanlop, to the southernmost provinces of Yala, Pattani,
and Narathiwat for a one-day fact-finding trip on February

28. The Thaksin plan assigns one MP to each of the 25
districts in the deep south so the MP can learn in depth
about local concerns of the populace in his assigned
district. Locals have greeted the visit of the MPs with
skepticism. In a typical reaction, Mimanase Sama-ari, Vice
Chairman of the Young Muslim Association of Thailand, called
the one-day southern trip a publicity stunt and a waste of
time.


7. (U) Meanwhile, a Thaksin spokesman confirmed that a
extraordinary joint session of the House of Representatives
and the Senate (reftel) will take place March 30-31. The
rare session, which will focus exclusively on the South, has
been welcomed by pro-democracy activists as an opportunity to
publicly discuss the government's policy.

PRIVY COUNCIL TAKES PUBLIC ROLE ON SOUTH


8. (U) During a February 28 conference at the prestigious
Thammasat University General Prem Tinsulanonda, president of
the Privy Council and former prime minister, called for the
government to follow the King's advice on dealing with the
south. Prem urged the Thaksin government to follow the rule
of law, and called for better understanding of the southern
population. Privy Councilor Kasem Wattanachai also spoke at
the same conference, echoing Prem's remarks. Kasem called on
the government to head the King's advice, and work on
improving the lives and livelihoods of the people in the
south. On March 1 Prime Minister Thaksin had a closed door
50 minute "courtesy call" meeting with General Prem. Thaksin
did not comment on the specifics of the meeting, saying
publicly that he and the Privy Councilor had only discussed
general issues, and had not focused on any specific issues.


9. (C) Comment: It is not surprising that Thaksin is
backing away from his ill-conceived plan to punish or reward
"zones" in the south given widespread condemnation of the
idea. Once again, he is demonstrating how agile a politician
he can be in the face of opposition. However, it remains
unclear whether these latest replacement initiatives are just
maneuvering or amount to a real attempt to consider different
options for the South. Despite the selection of former Prime
Minister Anand, one of the most respected public figures in
Thailand, to head the National Reconciliation Commission, the
prospects that the Commission will come up with anything too
new or original for the South are mixed. Anand himself has
said his views on how to end the violence do not differ
greatly from the government's. And Thaksin loyalist
Bavornask Uvanno is in the other NRC leadership position.
Nevertheless, if the NRC final membership is extended to real
critics of Thaksin's southern strategy, they may be able to
force a new consensus. Local southern skepticism over the
involvement of outsider members of parliament in the South
seems warranted. It is unlikely that the 25 TRT MPs, the
majority of whom come from the majority Buddhist north of the
country, will be able to relate sufficiently rapidly and
sincerely to the culture and concerns of southerners. Their
expressed desire to help is already being dismissed by many
Southerners as a political gesture. Of greater interest are
the public statements by the two members of the Privy
Council. Prem's comments in particular deserve attention as
they likely represent direct concern from the Palace over the
government's hard-line southern policy. End Comment.
BOYCE